Master of the HouseNo introduction needed....apparently no editing needed either...let's get to it. {update: Blackburn made me spell check. Stop telling me what to do Blackburn.}

O'B: Your boy John is reporting that Joe Lunardi, a man who gets paid to tell the future and thus whose word is his livelihood, said on an internationally broadcasted television station Dayton can get two more wins in the A10 tournament they will Dance. At the beginning of the season, what would have shocked you more, that Dayton has lost 5 of their last 7 to struggle to 8-8 in conference play, or that even with such shitty results, they still have a chance at the tournament?

Blackburn: You will never hear me say a bad thing about Lunardi. The guy created his own industry and is the foremost "bracketologist" in the universe. That's a respectable hustle. You can argue with results, and Joey D's track record speaks for itself. If Handsome Joe says it, it's probably true. 
 
As far as your question, 8-8 doesn't necessarily surprise me. As we said preseason, this team had 10 or its top 11 guys coming back this year -- and none of them can shoot. Since scoring is basically half the battle, the lack of offensive talent was sure to be problematic all season. Throw in the fact that everything broke the Flyer's way last year, and you had to figure that the postseason wasn't a guarantee.  I recall our writers argued whether we should have predicted the Flyers to go 11-5 or 10-6 in conference, I guess even we overshot their potential. I know some people were throwing out ridiculous predictions like 14-2 or 13-3, which was laughable at the time and downright embarrassing at the present. How you could think a team like UD, a completely different team away from its home, could dominate the A-10 like that is beyond me.
 
That being said, I think they match up very well with Xavier (and Richmond if they progress in AC), so I'm actually kind of bullish on UD's chances in Boardwalk Hall. If they beat those two clubs then I think that UD is certainly in the discussion, which says everything you need to know about the current state of college basketball. Like I said before, this year has been a glaring indictment on the expansion to 96, which is a good thing.
 
Changing gears, what do you think about Brian Gregory's statements regarding the fans booing in recent games?

O'B: Its a load of shit. Who the fuck does he think he's talking to? A guy getting paid $500,000 a year is telling me I can't boo his shitty performance? I get paid less than a tenth of that salary and the guy that pays my salary will rip my ass apart if I were to let him down time and time again, and didn't change my performance in an attempt to improve. If this was a division three high school basketball team, where the coach is also the chemistry teacher, then yeah, its bullshit to boo. The thing is Brian Gregory is only here for the money and when he gets offered more money he's leaving. There is nothing wrong with this and I'm not trying to make him look like a bad person for standing up for his players a bit, but the fact that he says it with an utter lack of irony or embarrassment is what gets me. Like watching the game is a privilege and not a right. Like if he doesn't win more, the AD will say "well he's just such a good influence on these young student athletes, how can we fire him?" I am so upset by that comment I'm not even going to edit this rant. Moments later, BG dropped the ball
 
Lets get back on board the sanity train. Lets say we beat X and beat Richmond, then make the tournament. How does history view this team/coach?

Blackburn: Have to agree about Gregory. It's a "king is naked" kind of moment for BG. Just utterly embarrassing. It's a slick move though. Rather than discuss WHY people are booing, you attack the people who are doing the booing. Brilliant spin.  College coaches have become bad politicians.
 
If UD beats Xavier and Richmond, and then gets selected to the tournament? All is forgiven. Ultimately, success in college basketball is determined by NCAA tournament appearances. It's nice to beat your rival, it's great when graduation rates are above average, and it's encouraging when the team is competitive. However, those things pale in comparison to postseason success. If UD somehow sneaks into this tournament, the season is a triumph, Brian Gregory is a genius and Dayton has officially passed Xavier.
 
Thoughts?

O'B: Yeah. I guess. I agree with everything you say, but its kind of a shame. Keep in mind I'm saying this now, but I'll be begging you to do the recap after we win our first round NCAA game.
 
With this season in its final stages, I don't know about you, but my mind has wandered to next season. When 2011 was a lot farther away, the lineup that would include Benson, Pauly Wills, and CJ looked fruitful when paired with Juwan and Rob Lowery 2.0. Now, after watching Williams regress, seeing Benson get no time, the apparent hatred BG has for Searcy, Chris Wright inability to actually play a well rounded game of basketball, and most importantly, BG being exposed as a guy that be out-coached by any person who's ever seen a Syracuse game...I'm not as excited. Should we temper our expectations for next season? This year we were assume A10 favorites and a possible 6 Seed in the tournament. Where should I expect the pundits to say about us this summer?

Dayton's biggest recruit...since the last oneBlackburn: My mind began wandering to 2010-11 back in October. Could this be a case of addition by subtraction? I'm not sure. I will say this: as long as Chris Wright and Johnson are on the roster next season, UD can be competitive in the conference. I couldn't be more excited about the arrival of Juwan Staten. I was never completely on board the Chris Wright hype-train, but consider me the muthafuckin' conductor of the Staten Express. Guards are difference makers in college basketball, and I think by now all UD fans realize that you are at a severe disadvantage if you have suspect guard play. Staten and Josh Parker are reasons to get excited.
 
I think increased minutes for Big Dog will make everyone forget the four-year nightmare that was Kurt Huelsman. Josh Benson has shown that he has significant potential. It's too early to tell how the rest of the freshman class shakes out, but I don't expect major contributions from anyone other that Staten. We already know what to anticipate from Paul Willie and Matt Kavanaugh.
 
Depending on offseason moves, there is no reason to think that UD can't improve on a 8-8 performance. I would like to see Gregory move away from his platoon system, cut down the rotation and give Wright and Johnson 30+ minutes a game. Given BG's blind allegiance to his system, I unfortunately don't see that happening.
 
Agree/disagree?

O'B: The thing is I don't remember watching Tom Izzo take Mateen Cleaves out every 3 minutes. He's praying to a God that the even the man who created the God doesn't pray to. you ready for a great analogy? BG is just like Coach Red Beaulieu from the Waterboy. He stole The Fonz's playbook and used it to get a great job and build some success. But after a few years, everyone realized he was out of plays and couldn't adjust to the point that even a mentally handicapped team could beat them. We just haven't seen anything new, and boy wouldn't that be nice? 
 
The last person to fuck with the Fonz pulled recon duty of the Presbyterian game. The problem with next year is I don't think we'll have anyone to play SG, I think our depth will be eroded, teams will still be playing zone on us, and I don't believe we have any tangible talent in the paint. Neither CJ or CW can play a leading role on this team. Maybe that's too soon for Chris Johnson, but it sure as hell is true about Wright. I don't know what to expect from the other incoming freshman, but its hard to imagine them not taking Paul Williams spot. Lets hope that they can shoot and lets hope...gulp....Luke is healthy.
 
How the hell are we going to beat Xavier for a second time this season?

Blackburn: Forget about Luke, he is not the type of kid that plays more than 15+ minutes a game, it's obvious his body just isn't made for the long term rigors of Division one basketball. The longer he is in the game the more his weakness can be exposed. As long as he hits 40%+ of his threes, he is useful, it not, not so much.
 
I think with the right personnel, BG's system could work. However, with no inside presence, and a shaky point guard situation, I can't help but think he would have been better served riding the hot hands (especially during the back stretch of the season when things were collapsing around him). When Chris Wright scores eight points in three minutes, maybe you should let him stay in the game until he cools off or needs a breather. It's going to be interesting what happens to BG's philosophy in the offseason. If UD fails to make the Dance, he has enough evidence of what works and what doesn't work on this level. Does he alter his gameplan or stick with what got him here? Knowing Gregory's mentality, I'm not hopeful.
 
I say BG switches things up and comes out in a blazer, jeans and sparkly white sneakers on Friday night (aka the Long Island Lounge Act).  We need something huge.

O'B: We do need something huge. Something that will cause the hay seeds to gasp. Maybe we'll come out to rap music or wear baggier shorts. Maybe BG won't do coke for this game. I guess the only thing I like about today is, I really don't know what's going to happen. For better or worse, I'm going to watch the game (I'm really not, I have to be at my girlfriends birthday party at a fucking wine bar) and going to be genuinely surprised if we win...or if we lose.

I know you said before that as long as we make the tournament this season will be a success...but I know you. You have a memory that's just like my johnson...long and distinguished. How will YOU remember this season. With the disgust of the Jack Daniels shot I bought you, or the refined enjoyment of the vespa martini James Bond bought you in Monaco.

Blackburn: It all depends on whether they make a run in AC or not. The season had a odd progression, didn't it? A "huge" win to open the season against Creighton, a fairly decent showing in the Puerto Rico Tipoff, rolling off eight in a row after the K-State defeat, almost pulling off a miracle in the Pit, the escape against Duquesne, and then the loss to St. Joseph's. The loss at home against Rhody following the SJU loss was my first indication that things were not likely to pan out as we all hoped.

I guess what I will remember most about this year, if in fact the season comes to a premature end tonight, is Rob Lowery. I remain a huge Lowery fan, and thought his return to the fold would bring a much needed boost to the Flyer attack. It didn't happen, Rob Low's sporadic play was symbolic of this year's campaign.

Oh, and we learned that Brian Gregory actually does have a Napoleonic complex.

O'B: I met him once, at an alumni event...holy lord I was blasted...but he seemed so damn nice and into the program. Oh, and he smelled so fucking good. Whatever, moving on. I feel like this team planned on coasting through the year and was given a wicked reality check against Kansas State. Give me you best pregame speech for the Flyers tonight. If you are coaching Dayton, what do you tell Kurt, who's caught the ire of so many fans, what do you say to London who I argue as not, has given his soul to our program, as a mediocre player, and finally what do you say to Rob Lowery, besides pass the ball? We have top 25 talent and a top 178 conference record.

Also, give me the numbers for the NY powerball....i desperately want to quit the blog.

Blackburn: I think we are past the point of rah-rah speeches. It's simple, time to put up or shut up. This team has the talent to win the A-10 tourney, not necessarily sure they have the temperament. Honestly, Chris Wright probably has the most to lose tonight. If UD could somehow squeeze into the tourney maybe it gives him another chance to have a breakout game in the Dance and earn some more dough.

O'B: If I may say so, an NBA prospect beats St. Joe's, SLU and Rhode Island on his own.

Blackburn: Not necessarily. Although when you look at guys like Wesley Johnson, Aminu, Stanley Robinson, Ebanks, Damion James, etc., Wright's clearly not in that class. I'll always believe that Chris Wright was supposed to the the 3rd banana on a BCS team. Someone who doesn't have to make the big play, just make a play when the situation calls for it. He would have been perfect at someplace like West Virginia -- would have been the 3rd option behind Butler and Ebanks -- or Ohio State behind Turner and Buford.

Are you as tired of talking about Kountry Chris as I am?

O'B: Absolutely, sometimes he looked fantastic scoring 10 points in minutes and snagging rebounds, some games he'll look marvelous putting up a sturdy twelve and twelve...but most of the time, he just seems like he's either in the way, or too one dimensional to make an impact. I'd love to see him learn to post up guys his size. Maybe learn that MJ fade away.
 
I can't imagine scouting Chris Wright. If you showed a scout two tapes, one of his high school days, and one from UD...do you think the scout would be able to tell which tape was from 3 years ago? Of course not. He's the same player.
 
Are you doing the recon? You want to give me a prediction?

Blackburn: I ain't doing the recon, eff that. Where's Ollie and Big Harry? Here's what I predict: UD gets by X in a close one and then comes up just short against Richie. UD makes it to the NIT semis (at MSG) and you come up with some lame excuse when I try to talk you into going with me.

O'B: I concur on all accounts, only this time I insist on buying the tickets and we end up sitting in the nose bleeds. Which ends up being a wise decision because its harder to get kicked out up there.

Blackburn: Don't be so sure, I have a tendency to somehow get involved in accidental chicanery no matter where I sit.

I tried to talk you guys into thinking we were underdogs last week in the worst recon you've ever seen until this one. The truth is we are now officially on the outside looking in for the first time all season. I'm about to tell you something that will rock your world. I actually got multiple anonymous emails about this, that I will not republish for fear of reprisal. Here we go. This game is a must win. WOW. I know right? Here's the kicker, we could win this game, the SLU game, and make it to the championship game of the A10, and still not make the tournament. Prepare for the worst and drink like the best. Lets get right into a detailed description of what we're about to see, regardless of validity.

How we got here: Richmond's rise to the top of the Atlantic Ten isn't surprising. A small school with under 3,000 kids, most of whom have little to no knowledge of the team, and once they graduate work at subpar mortgage firms in midtown Manhattan. Blackburn described the students at Richmond as, "cake eaters who prefer bong rips over college basketball." He forgot to mention the casual cocaine addiction and not so casual madras addiction. I have a lot of friends from Richmond, the type of people that are nice to me, but not nice to the maitre'd at Canal Bar (Ed Gein, anyone?). Anyway, the Spiders take orders from the same type of person they will after graduation, a Princeton grad.

Mooney: his bowel movements could outcoach BGChris Mooney has been the Richmond head coach since 2005 and is in the midst of his second twenty win season with the Spyders. Mooney runs a Princeton offense which is based on passing, movement, and the ability to drain the three from all five positions. On paper, Dayton's defense is built to defeat the Princeton offense (more like the Argyle offense...am I right guys?!!?); we constantly pressure the ball, defend passing lanes with a long, athletic team, and utilize our depth to keep fresh legs on the court. Since '07 "we" are 3-1 against Richmond and have held them to 37%, 40%, 55% (2008 loss), and 37% shooting. Clearly the magic number tomorrow will lie somewhere between 41% and.....54%! That's some crack analysis. Suck it, Doog. 

The Arachnia: One of the reasons Richmond has taken the game to the next level this season has been the health of Dan Geriot. Geriot took a medical redshirt last year after doing to his knee what's...

Errrrrrr (that's a record screeching sound, and not of the remix variety). O'B ingeniously disconnected the sprinkler system in his office building and then committed an act of arson yesterday. All in order to avoid writing this recon (we're struggling to maintain interest just like you). So from here out you'll get a mashup of inferior rambling from myself, Ollie, and the sterling prose of Mr. B., the man with Richmond love juice running down his chin.

I'm not sure where we were going with Geriot, as he's yet to make the impact that his freshman and sophomore years promised (remember, promises are just lies in the making). But after putting up 14 and 5.5 a half as a sophomore on 48% from the field and 40% from three, all thought he was on pace for an All A-10 career and a solid Spanish tenure where he played games twice a week, ate paella daily, and made his way through Spanish women like the Inquisition. Then his ACL popped and his statshave dropped across the board. Which is vexing as nobody was confusing him with Tyrus Thomas. Really, he was a rich man's Pop-A-Shot with superior ball skills. He was Pete Carril's wet dream, a big man with great range, passing ability, and well defined pecs. Now he's, more or less, a confused Kurt Huelsman.

Only Jordan Crawford stands in his wayKevin Anderson is the tiny little heart of the Spiders. He's what makes 'em go. He's the quickest guard in the league and will make a living in the paint. While, not a particularly adept distributor, the threat of him beating his defender leaves gaps for his teammates. He's getting 17.5 a game and does a great deal of his damage at the line, as he's prone to be fouled and, gasp, hits his foul shots like he's paid to (82%). He's not much of a threat from 3, but he'll still fire his fair share. While the Flyers PGs are reputed to be terrors on D, they've been exposed as dredlocked charlatans this season. They're apt to eat some poor, white PG's lunch, but are swinging gates against anyone with a head fake or a crossover. Look for Anderson to have a huge game as he did last season.

David Gonzalvez makes up the second half of the league's best backcourt. His numbers are down a bit from last year, but he's still a solid all around 2 guard. Offensively, he can shoot it a bit (44%/36%), is not afraid to grab a board (4.1), and plays some mean D. Like Anderson, he's grabbing nearly 2 steals a game. I don't know about you, but I'm ready for Gonzalvez to graduate and not because of his basketball, but because of the damned V in his last name. Is he too good to be a Gonzalez?

Justin Harper's continued development has been instrumental in Richmond's rise to glory. Coming into this season, Harper was expected to raise his game and match the hype he entered the Spider program with three years ago. He has done just that this season, scoring 11 points and grabbing 6 boards a game. Additionally, he is a superior defender, the type of player that fills in all the little holes no one else will. The same can be said of senior guard Ryan Butler. Mooney is on record claiming Butler as the best defensive player he has ever coached. I would expect that in the rare moments the Spiders aren't sitting in a zone chuckling amongst each other, Butler will be all up in Chris Johnson's business. Although not a great offensive player, Butler will fire away from the perimeter if left to his own devices. 

The Numbers Game: "A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers."

		PPG	FG%	FT%	3P%	RPG	ORPG	DRPG	APG	TPG	SPG	BPG	FPG
	UD	70.2	42.1	66.6	33.7	39.2	12.0	26.8	15.1	14.4	6.2	3.5	19.8
	RICH	68.6	44.6	69.9	34.8	32.7	9.0	23.7	12.7	11.5	8.4	4.9	17.6
	UD Opponents	61.6	39.2	64.6	31.2	32.7	10.1	22.6	11.0	14.2	5.9	3.3	18.8
	RICH Opponents	60.8	39.0	70.4	28.4	37.6	13.1	24.4	9.9	15.7	5.4	3.4	17.9

Rest your worthless bones, your end is nighRichmond is the most efficient team UD will face this season, they never waste a possession. They play very heady basketball, take smart shots and protect the ball. Defensively, they are just as sound, allowing just over 60 points a game. The Spiders are sneaky athletic in the frontcourt. Although the backcourt deservedly gets much of the focus, Butler and Harper are vital to this team's success on the defensive end. The one downfall of this team has been in the rebounding department. Chris Mooney's team routinely gets outrebounded, an area the Flyers can hopefully capitalize on. 

Prediction: WE NEVER LOSE AT HOME...only on the road. If UD comes up short, they will end the year 4-7 on the road, just 2-6 in A-10 play. A roadie against a top-25 caliber team on Senior night? It's safe to say UD's chances are slim to none, and Slim just walked out of the building (my Uncle, the one who did time, used to say that. No clue what it means). Richmond's backcourt will likely be too much for UD to handle, and the fact that Richie excels on the defensive end does not bode well for the Flyers either. The Spiders are 3.5 point favorites, and I think that's giving UD too much credit.

It will be interesting to see what Gregory's mindset will be tonight. Will he stick to his guns, the strategy that has the Flyers sitting at 8-6 in the league, or press on with a different look -- perhaps increasing the minutes for UD's most valuable weapons. Although BG's gameplan is predicated on throwing as many fresh bodies at the opposition as possible, tonight's game would seem to be a rather opportune moment to change things up a bit. There is nothing left to lose, Dayton has painted itself into a corner. Might as well throw everything against the wall and see what, if anything, sticks.

Richmond wins this one, 67-60.