The Great American Preview Post
November 12, 2009 Jim O'Brien One of my friends is a huge NFL Draft guy. He loves it so much, he calls it Draftmas and gets hammered for it every year. He's a big NFL fan in general, but nothing gets him more excited than Roger Goodell coming to the podium to make an announcement. Will there be a trade? Will his team waste a pick on an Ohio State player? Is there a cure for the common herpes infection? It's sad, it really is. Not that there isn't a cure for herpes, well that is sad, but that the best moment of his year is in the off-season. That's what you get for being a Browns fan. For Flyer fans, the past 8 months have been excruciating, because we know we have a great team, and we know that this season has the potential to be our best ever.
Sure this blog has the tendency to be bit negative at times, but its mostly because we have a tendency to push away those we love for fear of abandonment. Over-affection for our mother's aside, I can assure you that we all dream of a Final Four berth and would only say it out loud standing on an Indian burial ground while holding a shovel. The season is about to start and we are ready to win and drink Beast till the break of dawn, while spraying 40's on 19 year old girls and hoping they react the same way they would if Marcus were holding the bottle. This is the final prediction post we will make, and I promise I am just as happy they are over as you are. Without further ado, a post for you to skim while drinking your morning coffee. From here on out, no more abstract conversations, it's pure basketball. Until Donoher comes back from vacation of course.
1. Breakout player. Who is going to greatly increase their numbers and play from last season?
Big Dog gonna eat.Donher: I gotta pick Chris Johnson as my breakout player. i see him easily averaging 10 points a game with about 6-7 boards. Next year he will even get better. He showed signs of brilliance last year but was very sporadic. I hope Gregory gives him at least 20-25 minutes a game this year. He should be starting this year and if not, definitely the first guy off the bench.
Ollie: Devin Searcy. It's an easy pick now that's he's been named a starter, but I really think he fits the system well. He's a run and jump big man in a system that likes to get up and down the court. I love his demeanor too. Perhaps, his skills could use some refining, but he's relentless and aggressive. Add those traits to his athleticism, and multiply by increased minutes, and I think he surprises this season. Nothing extravagant, let's say 6 and 5 with a block for good measure.
Blackburn: This is an easy one for me. The obvious choice would appear to be CJ, but I feel like he has already “broken out.” My pick is Big Dog Searcy. I’m not saying that he is going to average a double-double, but I think he will have two or three games that make people take note and question why he isn’t getting more minutes. From everything I’ve read, it seems like Searcy really took his game seriously this summer and I’ll think we’ll see him take shit to a new level.
O'Brien: Paul Williams. I’m going to save my breath because I already waxed poetic about my affection for him. Dayton needs shooters (sit down Luke) who can play great defense (I told you to sit down Luke) and Mr. Williams fits that bill. If he lives up to the lofty expectations he arrived in our Marianist Mecca with, Dayton will elevate their play to a higher plane. Dark Horse? Kurt. (/ducks shoe)
2. Disappointing player. Who is a player coming into this season with hype and will fall woefully short of said hype.
Blackburn: Although I could definitely see Kountry Chris not living up to his press this season, I think the most likely candidate would be Marcus Johnson. MJ is entering his final year in the Gem City, and perhaps may feel pressured to force the issue at times. That being said, I don’t necessarily think Marcus will disappoint, but his numbers may slip a bit this season.
Ollie: I'd like to preface this like a pussy and say I hope he proves me to be an idiot, but I think Paul Williams is exposed as a charlatan this year. He's looked decent in the exhibitions but I just can't forget him being blown by on consecutive possessions by Lamont Mack last season. This from a player who's a lockdown defender? To me, it looks like an injury (the mysterious foot injury?). Athletically he just doesn't look like a D1 player to me. And if you don't have the athleticism, you better either be huge or able to fill it up Reddick-style (right Luke?). To me, he just seems to lack any skill or ability that would get him on the floor. Like I said though, hope he proves me wrong.
O'Brien: I know it’s a bit obvious, but Chris Wright. Not in the conventional terms that he’ll be terrible, because he won’t be. I just think he falls into some of the same habits he had last season. His free throw percentage will be disappointing, which is almost criminal considering the driving to the basket is such a key component to his game, and I also think he continues to disappear a few times a season. Jack Daniels, I hope I’m wrong.
Donoher: Have I ripped Matt Kavanaugh enough on this site? I feel terrible for saying this because I am sure Matt is a nice guy, but come on...he is a white kid from Centerville. Warm and Cheerful Centerville. "The larges collection of early stone houses in the state of Ohio." He was recruitd by mid-level MAC schools. From my sources, he comes from a rich family. He has never had to work for anything in his life. He's been the tallest player throughout his career. Yeah he played well vs some Villanova recruits, like Blackburn said, "Anyone can have 1 or 2 good games and their stock rises." Saying that Kavanaugh will be the next James Cripe is an insult to James Cripe...I'm sorry.
3. Conference play; The A14 is a whole new beast this season. Is this the year Dayton beats X in Cin City? Or is this the year Dayton folds like Oliver at the blackjack table against LaSalle? Where do we end the season, and in which tournament? 
From Left to Right: Thunderdome
Ollie: I think we take second in the A10 and qualify for the only tournament that matters. While I fight against the urge to be pessimistic about these Flyers, they return essentially the entirety of a pretty good team. As I've told anyone who'll listen, "Did you at any time last season truly think this was a dominant team?" and generally the response involves some mumbling and shifting of feet. I think we make the tournament as a double digit seed and then go quietly into the night, as quietly as a mouse pissing on a cotton ball.
O'Brien: YES, YES, AND YES. First of all, Oliver is terrible at blackjack. Second, I have full expectations that Dayton is going to take the A10. I don’t predict it’s going to be a landslide, I think we squeak it out. I have a lot of evidence to back it up, but I left it in my other keyboard.
Donoher: Fuck no, Dayton won't win in Cincinnati this year. Come on now. Mark Dayton down for at least 4 losses on the road (Xavier, St. Louis, Richmond, St. Joe's/Temple). Mark them down for at least 1 more loss at home, I'll say LaSalle. They will not lose at home in non-conference play. So let's see here...2 non-conference losses plus 5 conference losses. 23-7, most likely 3rd or 4th place in the league. Win 1 game in the A-14 tournament, hold your breath, 11 seed, first round win, second round loss. Wow...I am a negative nancy.
Blackburn: If ever there was a year for UD to break the hex in Cincy, this is it. However, I still don’t see it happening. This is the same team that looked absolutely shell-shocked at Xavier last season, and I think the Muskies extend the streak to 25. The Flyers have a mental block away from the Arena, and no place has a stranglehold on UD like Xavier’s home court.
The possibilities for this season are endless. If you told me that Dayton finishes fifth in the conference and ends up in the NIT, I’d believe you. If you told me that Dayton wins the A-10 and plays in the second week of the NCAA tournament, I’d believe you. I have feeling it will be somewhere in between. As of now, I’d guess that UD has a similar year as last season and gets a 8/9 seed in the Dance.
4. Does CW go pro? What country does MJ finish his career in? Does BG stay in Dayton? Will the new Stuart Street Bridge carry champions or failures?
Marcus, if you need an agent or entourage member, you know where to reach meO'Brien: You other guys are so long winded, I’m stream lining this one. No, Flyer Jesus returns again to grace UD, Mr. Johnson heads to Sweden….for obvious reasons…BG leaves Dayton and moves to Kettering, and the Stuart Street Bridge collapses. I bet you didn’t see that coming.
Donoher:Wright announces he will go pro but doesn't hire an agent, realizes he won't get drafted, comes back. Marcus plays in Germany. Is Stuart Street bridge fucking done yet?
Blackburn: As I said earlier this fall, there is absolutely no way Wright wants to stay in Dayton for his senior season. Although the hype and PR machine is clearly out pacing the actual talent, I think Wright declares but doesn’t sign on with an agent. I don’t think Chris is going to like what scouts have to say—and assure you he isn’t going to like the possibility of second round non-guaranteed money. Although I’m not as confident as I was a few months ago, I think Wright comes back for his senior year simply because his pro prospects are too murky.
MJ will have a nice career over in Europe somewhere. I don't think MJ is holding onto NBA dreams, so I don't see the NBDL in his future. I think he is comfortable knowing he can get paid to play basketball and probably isn't worried about where he lays his head down each night.
As far as BG, time will tell. I think he could leave at the end of this season depending on what jobs are open and what his prospects look like. I think he has a pretty good thing going here in Dayton, and as long as UD lives up to expectations he should see some decent offers come his way in the near future. It's ultimately going to come down to timing, when the right job opens up, he is gone.
Hey Chris, I got the perfect franchise for you.
Ollie: I'm completely baffled by Wright's flirtation with the NBA. I don't know if he's buying the sweet nothings being whispered by agents, because he doesn't look like an NBA player to these eyes. But then again, quite a few respected NBA Draft websites think fairly highly of him. It seems delusional to me, but I think he goes pro and falls to the second round. Unless he improves his shot well beyond my expectations he'll never be anything more than a leaper and defensive stopper in the NBA.
Marcus is one of my favorite players on the team. I truly believe he's in it for the success of the team and not out for individual stats. But I think we all know well enough what Marcus is, a great second option on a good college team. If anything, I think Marcus's offensive numbers may take a small step backwards this year. Don't feel bad for Marcus. Remember the best weekend of your senior year, where you were drunk for 72 consecutive hours and slept with girls impossibly out of your league? That's every weekend for Marcus.
BG will leave at some point. And he isn't waiting for Izzo to leave Michigan State. He's just waiting for a big enough paycheck. The first legit Big 10, SEC, or Big East school that shows up at his door with a little bit of history and an Ed McMahon check wins his services.
5. In 5 years when we look back at this team, what will we say?
Donoher: {Ed. Note: Donoher forgot to answer this question before leaving to go to Canada on his honeymoon, so feel free to guess what he would have said in the comments.}
Blackburn: I will say that this team doesn’t live up to the expectations, which for argument’s sake means reaching the Sweet 16. There are just too many offensive limitations to think this team could reach those heights this season. On a positive note, I think this is the year that solidifies UD’s place on the college basketball landscape. Dayton will reach the next tier, joining the likes of Butler, Gonzaga, Xavier, etc. as a program to be respected, yet not feared.
Ollie: It'll be a happy memory. We're in for an exciting and successful season. But, of course, the Flyer fans who believe we're capable of being Duke will be disappointed and the bitching and moaning will ensue. This pains me more than I can explain, but the absolute peak of expectations for UD is what X has experienced the past few years. A couple of fluke runs with some talented players and the right coach before he bolts for the cash. Kinda of sounds like this year, huh?
O'Brien: Our realistic ceiling in the Sweet 16. I know some fans will see that as a disappointment, but in reality that means we'll have won three NCAA Tournament games in two years. We set the table to be a program to recon with for the next decade. I'd almost say that the past two year's success is better than George Mason making it to the Final Four. GMU made it that far and everyone said they were a fluke and it showed when they failed to turn that success into top recruits. On the other hand, I think people will look at Dayton and say that they are building a top flight program that will be a mainstay on the national stage.
Reader Comments (8)
@Ollie: Thank you for making sense. Who knew? The peons need to realize BG ain't waiting around for MSU; when the price is right, he's gone.
@Secaur: that's been our contention all along. The fun part will be watching BG's ardent supporters turn on him.
@Secaur: Appreciate the backhanded compliment.
@Blackburn: I don't see how any Flyer fan could be upset with BG leaving, granted he leaves after more success and with the cupboards fairly well stocked. The way I look at it, we're a Fortune 500 company and as CEO he's drastically improved every area of our business; stock prices are up, we're paid more, the future looks bright. A Fortune 100 company comes along offers him Scrooge McDuck s tower of doubloons. Of course he's gone. You're sad to see him go, but it's business. And college basketball is no different. Once you subtract the passion of college basketball, BG is just another successful manager looking out for his best interest.
@oliver: exactly, BG isn't in the game to shape minds and foster relationships with his players. He is in it to get a payday. I was happy for OP when he left, and I'll be happy for Gregory when he leaves. Like you said, the only way he leaves is if UD is successful, so its win-win for us.
I will say that OP seemed ready to jump at the first opportunity that came his way. I think BG will be a little bit patient and wait for something that seems like the right fit.
BTW, did you see Gregory's comment today in the DDN? He literally said, "I'm not a socialist..." I did a spit take. http://www.daytondailynews.com/dayton-sports/university-of-dayton-flyers/constant-subbing-keeps-ud-fresh-399631.html
I used to think BG was in line for the MSU job, people up there love him, but I don't think Izzo is going to leave. A couple years back I thought Izzo would coach through the 2010 season at most then step down. Izzo seems revitalized (he picked up Payne, and battled Huggy and Cal for him, no small accomplishment) and has been saying recently he wants MSU to go down as one of the all time great programs under one coach. I say he stays for at least 5 more years, if not longer.
I am split on OP. On one hand he left the program in much better shape after an absolute debacle under J.O.B. On the other hand, his last recruiting classes were filled with guys like Spears and Cripe. Spears couldn't even steal shit correctly and Cripe was the worst 6'11" player in the history of D-I basketball. I think he got tired of selling Dayton and figured he had a good enough core with Wally, Finn, Ramod, Green and the likes to skip out of town when he did or the year after.
I don't see BG doing that. If BG leaves (or when, if you will) it will be a big time program. Not to say Clemson isn't a decent job, but it isn't the top of the mountain. He doesn't leave until he gets that offer. That is why Marquette never made sense. He is looking for Illinois, Arizona, or Louisville type teams to take over. I can't blame him for that. Unlike OP, I think we all know that he will at least leave a very good program with a solid foundation that doesn't need to start all over again. My two cents....and I love tits.
I think that if any year has come to beat X in Cinci, this is it. While we return the majority of the team from last year, and look to be one of the better Flyer teams in a long time, X graduated a number of the players who have haunted our dreams and our girlfriends for the last few years. However, I will reserve my prediction until that game. I just don't know enough about how we will perform yet to say if we win or not. The chances are great, I just don't know if we live up to the expectations and pull through.
Just because I was surprised, it doesn't make the compliment backhanded. I just wanna get along.
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