Baron controls all the action in Federal HillYour Dayton Flyers are officially in survival mode. With two losses in its first five conference games (should have been three losses if not for the patron saint of choke jobs, St. Duty of Duquesne), UD has a tough road to navigate. After tonight’s game with Rhody, UD travels to St. Bonnie (a tough road environment), hosts Xavier and Charlotte (two formidable challengers to the throne) and then travels to Saint Louis (a city that has given UD fits in the past). It’s hard to imagine that the Flyers run the table over the next five games, but that is essentially what they will have to do in order to remain in the at-large picture. With the common consensus holding that a 12-4 record would likely result in a bid, UD would need to close the season out on a 9-2 run. That sound you hear is Brian Gregory’s anus puckering.

How UD plays coming off the loss to St. Joe’s will tell how much fight is left in our basketball Flyers. Like my grandfather used to say, “You can measure someone’s character by how quickly they gather themselves after getting smacked in the mouth. The faster they get up, the more heart they have. Your grandma used to pick herself off the ground after just a few seconds, that’s when I knew I had me a keeper.” My grandfather was a wise soul.

Tonight’s tussle with Rhode Island will likely serve as a turning point in the season. A win gives UD a solid conference win, and a victory over a team with a top-20 RPI. A loss could see the Flyer’s season accidentally tumbling down the stairs like my grandma whenever dinner was cold. For a program that traces much of its strength in protecting the home court, a loss to Rhode Island will serve as a deafening distress call to the rest of the conference. A defeat would further increase the distance between Dayton and the upper-tier of the league (Xavier, Temple, Rhode Island, Charlotte, Richmond). If I could hype this game up any further I would, but I think you get the point -- a win would be a vital shot in the arm for the Flyers.

Before we dive face first into URI, there’s just one quick house cleaning item to discuss.

BG is…peculiar. There are two aspects to the DDN’s coverage of UD basketball that I find entertaining without fail.  Any nonsensical defense of Kurt Huelsman’s play and quotes from Chris Wright that indicate a general lack of English comprehension. Now, let’s add bizarre statements from Brian Gregory to that list. From the people’s paper, the head man’s reaction to the St. Joey loss:

“When you play like that, you don’t deserve to win,” UD coach Brian Gregory said. “It was a poorly coached game and a poorly played game... I’d have been more upset if we won the game because it would go against what we believe.”

Is anyone else having trouble understanding BG’s message here? If my appraisal is correct, Gregory is essentially saying that if the Flyers don’t follow the game plan, their preferred style of play, he would rather lose than win. Yes? Just when I think Gregory is ready for the big time, he comes out and says something inane like this. Could you imagine providing the press with this quote after a tough loss in the Big Ten? There would be “For Sale” signs and burning effigies on his lawn the next morning. Let’s revisit this quote if/when UD is one of the last teams held out of the field on Selection Sunday. You may have wings Brian Gregory, but you are not ready to fly…

Here is another gem from the Coach:

“Our defense was atrocious. We couldn’t guard the ball and we didn’t give any help. They turned it into a one-on-one game.”

Dayton's Boss HoggReally, you thought the defense was atrocious? St. Joseph’s shot 39.6% from the field, got out-rebounded by 13, and were held nine points below their season average. The defense was just fine, the type of D that will result in a win nine times out of ten in this conference. It was the offense that was “atrocious.” UD scored just 59 points a game against the Hawks, sixteen points below SJU’s points-allowed average (75 ppg). You know what else was atrocious? Not calling a timeout when you have one on the books in order to set up a play at the end of the game.  

Don’t expect any clarification as to why a timeout wasn’t called at the end of the SJU game. The question will never be asked and BG certainly won’t volunteer an explanation. Doug Harris and the rest of the Dayton Daily News reporters need the University of Dayton more than the U of D needs the DDN. The newspaper is essentially a state-run body at this point. Brian Gregory could run over a Haitian immigrant, while blind drunk and getting a blowie from an underage Malaysian boy and it would more than likely be covered up. That’s one of the advantages of being the top dog in a small mill town (I tell people that Dayton is a small mill town in order to placate their impressions of small town Amurika). Gregory, to his credit, is well aware that deflection is the best tool to satiate the masses. As a corporate defense attorney my advice is always simple and straightforward, “Deny until you die.” I think BG would be a very agreeable client.

With that being said, I present the Rhode Island Rams for your review.

Overview.A win in tonight’s game is imperative for both teams. The loser moves to 3-3 in conference, with its at-large possibilities effectively vanquished. URI comes into the game with an impressive 15-3 record (8-2 over the last ten games), with wins over Providence, Boston College and Oklahoma State. The Rams’ two conference losses came at the hands of Temple, a 68-64 defeat, and an eleven point loss to Jordan Crawford’s Musketeers over the weekend. The Rams have a very un-UD-like road record, going 6-2 on the season. Depending how things shake out the rest of the season, this could be a de facto elimination game, as this is the only time these two teams meet this season (I’m already penciling in Temple and Xavier on the B.R. bracket, and it’s hard to imagine more than three teams making it from the A-10 come March). Joey Lunardi sure seems to think so:

In an interview on ESPN.com, Lunardi said: “A big game this week, Dayton hosting Rhode Island. That’s an early bubble game. The loser of that will probably drop out of the bracket next week.”

Now I feel confident in my opinion. Having Joe Lunardi on your side is like walking into a VFW hall with an elderly Asian man in a head lock, you earn respect without saying a word.

Meet and Greet. The good news for the rest of the Atlantic Ten is that this Ram team will be severely depleted at the close of business this year. Jim Baron must feel like the manager of Menudo when those Latin lads start sprouting ball fuzz; he knows he will be forced to turn the whole group over the next season. Led by a triumvirate of seniors, the Rams only go about eight or nine deep.  The seniors account for approximately 55% of the Rams’ points, 50% of the rebounding, 55% of the shot attempts and get the fattest buds whenever there is a smoke circle -- which knowing URI, is often.

URI's black Jon ScheyerThe Rams are led by 6’4” guard Keith Cothran, who is following a breakout junior season with an impressive final year in Kingston. Averaging 16.4 points per game, Cothran is equally adept at driving to the basket or hitting shots from outside, connecting on 46% of his shots from the floor. Cothran is a shoot-first, shrug, and then shoot again off-guard, he will only pass in the most necessary of circumstances. A big part of his game is doing work on the glass, as he is grabbing around four rebounds a game.

Cothran’s selfishness is acceptable, as point-guard Marquis Jones is the leading assist man in the Atlantic Ten (4.8 apg). Jones protects the basketball like a cop hiding seized money in a crawl space, bringing a Jon Scheyer-esque assists-to-turnover ratio of 3.3:1 to the table (Scheyer’s ratio is actually 3.7:1, which is phenomenal when you consider that he is playing out of position with little help on the inside. This is the last time anything complementary will be said about anyone or anything associated with Duke University). Jones, like his counterpart London Warren, shies away from shooting the ball. Most of his field goal attempts will come from three-point territory when left unaccompanied on the perimeter. He shoots out of sheer embarrassment and necessity.  

Rhode Island’s frontcourt is led by senior forwards Delroy James and Lamonte Ullmer. James has a vastly improved game, as he came into URI with little outside touch and now has a consistent 10-15 foot jumper in his offensive stash (yes Flyer fans, it’s possible to develop a jumper in college). James is scoring around fourteen points a contest and pulling down six rebounds as well. James’ 44% shooting percentage is skewed by his 30% shooting from behind the arc (DJ hoisted seven threes in the Rams’ loss to Xavier over the weekend, not connecting on a single attempt—he’s URI’s Paul Willie). Ullmer leads the team in minutes played (30.6 mpg) and rebounds (7.6 rpg), registering four double-doubles on the year. Ullmer is not the threat from the outside, opting to do his damage within five feet (aka the Flyght Zone). Key to URI’s attack is the foul-shooting ability of both their starting forwards, as James and Ullmer are shooting a collective 75% from the stripe.

Will Martell, a true seven footer, will start in the middle for Rhody. With a dearth of 84-inchers around the country, there is a rather simple explanation as to why Martell ended up at URI (I’ll let you do the mental gymnastics). Nevertheless, Martell’s overall contributions to the Ram attack are anything but negative. In twenty-two minutes a game, Martell is scoring 6.6 points and snatching 5.3 rebounds per game. Additionally, he is shooting a robust 56% from the floor and 70% from the foul-line. Throw in a block and half a game and I would gladly trade Huelsman and Big Dog Searcy for Martell. I’m bullish on Josh Benson, so he’s off the trading block.

Kingston's freak of natureIn O’Brien’s preseason interview with Paul Kenyon of the Providence Journal, shooting-guard Akeem Richmond was slated as the freshman most likely to make an impact in year one. That prediction has come to fruition, as Richmond is seeing plenty of action for the Rams (sixteen minutes a game to be precise. URI’s other freshmen, Ryan Brooks and Nikola Malesevic, have barely left the bench this season). Richmond is Rhody’s best three-point shooter (38%) and scores eight points per outing. Whereas Marquis Jones acts as URI’s calming factor, Richmond plays with the type of reckless abandon that only a Flyer fan could appreciate. With more turnovers than assists, Richmond’s erratic play is typical of a freshman trying to learn the ropes. It will be interesting to see what type of defenses Brian Gregory throws at the Rhode Island offense when Marquis Jones is outside the Arena catching a smoke.

Stevie Mejia (didn’t he play for DePaul?) and Orion Outerbridge are two Bostonians that should see significant playing time off the pine. Mejia, a loveable scamp who stands at just 5’9”, does a decent Marquis Jones impression when he is in the game. Like Jones, Mejia cherishes the ball as if it was his first born, and comes into tonight’s tilt with a 2.4:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Not a threat to hit anything from outside (38%-25%-84%), Mejia averages just 3.8 points per game.  Outerbridge, a 6’9” sophomore, is enjoying an industrious season. How does seven points, three boards and a block in seventeen minutes sound? Don’t lie, production like that from a Dayton big man would probably lead to Hall-of-Fame enshrinement.

Numbers Game. The essence of statistics is not to make simple things complicated, but to make complicated things simple. 

		PPG	FG%	FT%	3P%	RPG	ORPG	DRPG	APG	TPG	SPG	BPG	FPG
	URI	78.6	46.3	72.6	31.7	35.8	12.8	22.9	15.2	12.4	8.7	5.3	16.8
	UD	69.5	43.7	66.6	32.4	38.6	12.5	25.6	14.9	14.7	6.2	3.4	20.1
	URI Opponents	70.6	45.2	63.8	33.9	36.2	12.9	23.3	13.7	16.2	4.9	2.0	19.0
	UD Opponents	62.1	40.4	65.7	33.3	32.4	9.6	22.8	11.4	15.2	5.9	3.2	19.0

Alysha Castonguay = URI 1, UD 0.Rhode Island does a lot of things better than most teams in the conference. They lead the A-10 in scoring (78.6 ppg), are second in field-goal percentage (46.3%), second in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.25:1), and third in free-throw percentage (72.6%). However, as good as the Rams are on offense, they are equally deficient on the defensive end. URI is ninth in the league in scoring defense (70.6 ppg), dead last in the conference in defensive field-goal percentage (45.2%), and tenth in rebounding (32.5 rpg). The formula for the Rams is simple, score over 70 points and they win (Rams are 15-1 in games scoring 70+). Score less than 70, the Rams likely crawl from the Arena with a loss (0-2 in games scoring less than 70). The onus will be on UD’s defense to bring home the victory.

Prediction:This is a tough call. UD's current home winning-streak is a reminder of just how difficult it is for opponents to come into the Arena and leave with a victory. I'm not sure what we are in store for tonight. My gut tells me that it will be a tight game throughout, but I wouldn't be surprised if either side wins handily either.

I do know this, as easy as it was to predict that Chris Wright would have a field day with SJU, I can't see him getting as many easy looks as he did against Rhode Island's frontcourt. URI's forwards are athletic and will make Kountry Chris work on the defensive end as well. I'd still expect Wright to have a decent game, let's say 12 points and 9 rebounds. In addition, there is no way Chris Johnson comes out as flat as he did against St. Joe's. CJ gets back on track, scoring 17 and inhaling 11 boards.

I'm going to revert to last year's theme, which is to say the Flyers win when they absolutely have to. They took down St. Joseph's and Xavier at home when a loss could have been disastrous, and they got past Richmond in the A-10 tournament when a loss probably meant the Flyers were NIT-bound. So...Flyers win. 71-68 UD, Rob Lowery hitting big free throws to seal the deal. Jim Baron is just glad to get back to Rhode Island, where he can get a decent plate of veal scaloppine.