The Hexagon Revisited
February 15, 2010 Tom Blackburn 
Handsome Joe, still suckling from the A-10 teetSeven days have passed since we were first dropped blindly into the Hexagon. Although none of the six teams have reached a positive or negative critical mass, there is a slightly clearer picture of where the conference chips will fall. No team has done itself enough disserve to earn dismissal from the six-sided circle. We are probably a week or so away from officially eliminating anyone from hexagonal competition. The most likely candidate? Regrettably, I think we all know the answer to that one.
Handsome Joe’s brackets came out earlier today, and the A-10, according to the King Bracketologist, still has six bids on the board (Charlotte’s hold appears to be the most feeble). I still think that four is a more plausible number, five being a stretch. Let’s quickly take a glimpse at last week’s winners and losers before diving back into the Hexagon.
Winners
- Out of any team in the conference, Richmond helped itself the most over the past week. Two victories, roadies against Saint Bonaventure and Rhode Island, catapulted the Spiders up to their rightful spot at the top of the league.
- In one of its last remaining tests, Temple, led by mystery man Michael Eric, disposed of Rhode Island in its only game last week.
- Xavier took a trip down to Gainesville and won one for the league, beating the Gators and earning some respect for the Atlantic Ten.
Losers
- Rhode Island harmed itself more than any other member of the Hexagon. A loss at home to Richmond and a defeat at Temple over the weekend put a major dent in the Rams' post-season hopes.
- Charlotte will continue to fight its image as a pretender in a rocky sea of contenders. In its only matchup this week, the 49ers were absolutely manhandled by the Gem City cagers. No one has a firm grasp on what this Charlotte team is all about.
- Could a banked three-pointer be the difference between the NCAA tournament and the NIT? Depending on how things play out, Kwamain Mitchell’s desperation heave could come back to haunt Dayton come Selection Sunday. The Flyers lost all the momentum they built up over their past two pinksockings against Xavier and Charlotte.
Last week we looked at the Hexagon from an ease of schedule perspective, this week we’re using schedule strength as a predictor for the final standings.
1st) Temple: The Owls have the easiest slate of games left. With only one hexagonal matchup on tap, at home against Dayton, Temple would appear to be in the driver’s seat as far as first place in the league is concerned. The only possible misstep would be at Saint Louis, but I have a feeling the Dunphy’s squad will take care of business and roll in that one. Currently 8-2, Temple could feasibly run the table and end the year with 14 league wins. Even with a conservative outlook, it’s realistic to think that the Owls end up with at least 13 wins and at least a share of the conference regular season title.
2nd) Xavier: The Muskies went out and represented the league well, taking down the mighty Gators in Gainesville for their seventeenth win of the season. Xavier has three very winnable games left on their docket – St. Joe’s, @ Fordham and closing out the year with Saint Bonaventure. That’s eleven wins without even breaking a sweat. If they can take down Charlotte on the road this weekend, X has a very good shot of getting 13 wins and challenging Temple for the conference crown. Like the Owls, the Muskies could conceivably win six in a row and end up with 14 W’s. The jury is still very much out on Charlotte and they get Richmond at home.
The Rick will have much to say over the next three weeks.3rd) Richmond: Richie is a near lock to get at least 12 wins in league play. With two cupcakes this week, Fordham and George Washington (both at home), the Spiders will likely move to 11-2 and hold onto first place for the time being. Out of any team in the Hexagon, Richmond closes out with the toughest trifecta of games: at Xavier, against UD, and closing their campaign on the road against Charlotte. Still, even with a win in just one of those three games (likely candidate = Dayton), the Spiders probably walk into the postseason chins held high with twelve conference wins. Reasonably speaking, third place is probably a worst-case scenario for Richie at this juncture.
4th) Rhode Island: URI had some miscues this week, losses to Richmond and Temple, which certainly takes some of the spark out of their surprising season. Still, the worst is clearly behind Jim Baron’s squad as the Rams will be clear favorites in four of their five remaining contests. Better yet, their one remaining Hexagonal opponent is Charlotte; an opponent many feel has a stench of pretense all over it. If URI gets by Saint Louis on the road this Wednesday, they likely ride a wave of momentum into their matchup with Charlotte (Rhody has Fordham and Saint Bonnie before hosting the Niners). Again, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Rhode Island could close out the season with five wins, as their five remaining games do not pose a sizeable obstacle.
5th) Charlotte: Presently tied for second, the Niners still enjoy a two game lead on the Flyers, a one and a half game cushion on Rhode Isalnd -- this fact cannot be understated. The best news for the 49ers is that four of their last six games are at Halton Arena. The one downside for Charlotte would appear to be their strength of schedule. So although they may finish in front of Rhody and Dayton in the standings, they may be the sixth team in terms of the NCAA tournament without some quality wins down the stretch. An excessively conservative estimate would have the Niners going 3-1 over the next two weeks (wins against Duquesne, GW, St. Joe’s, and a loss to Xavier), putting their conference record at 11-3 heading into its final two games. Splitting their last two games, @ URI and at home versus Richmond, would probably put Bobby Lutz’s club in the 3rd/4th place slot. However, looking at their resume, they would be best served by winning at least two of their three reaming Hexagonal matchups; otherwise the Niners will have some work to do in Atlantic City.
6th) Dayton: It’s hard to imagine that the current seventh place team in the Atlantic Ten has a shot at an NCAA berth, but that’s the unfortunate state of college basketball in 2010. It will be next to impossible for the Flyers to reach the top four of the conference, so UD will simply have to focus on not tripping over its own feet from here on out. A loss outside the Hexagon puts the Flyers squarely on the bubble, regardless of whether they sweep Richmond and Temple (which, let’s be frank, is an unlikely occurrence anyway). Most observers believe that eleven wins, and one victory in AC (a loss at UD Arena, in the conference tournament, will be the final nail in the Dayton’s coffin) puts them in the Dance with a double-digit seed. Simple math tells us that UD will need to go 5-1 over the next three weeks to solidify a bid, 4-2 won’t cut it. Unfortunately for the Flyers, this means getting a win at either Richmond or Temple, a tall order for a team that has once again struggled to get wins on the road this season.
Reader Comments (44)
Are you still having the NIT pizza party? I'd go ahead and send the Save-the-Date cards.
@Adam...of course we are. Marion's was in the lead with Dewey's in 2nd place. But I just saw a commercial where in a blind taste test, Domino's beat out Papa John's!!! So we will probably go there. There is still one over on Shroyer Road right?
How embarrassing for Domino's when all they can beat is Papa John's.
To me ... now with two teams ranked and X slamming Florida and Slu being able to beat Richmond and Dayton ... the A-10's perception is at an all time high.
In my mind if Dayton can finish in 5th place that is the main thing. If that happens I believe they will dance, I believe they are fourth in the at-large discussion.
Best case scenario for this week ... Slu (upping their RPI) beats URI and Dayton beats LaSalle/Duquense, jumping URI in the standings and dropping URI's RPI below ours. Then Charlotte goes 1-1 losing to X.
Win these two this week and I will feel good going into the showdown with Temple ... and our national perception at 19-7 and in front of URI in the standings will really keep us on the national radar even more solidly than this week.
@Donoher- Has to be Marion's. That game room won't know what hit it.
I have to disagree with one comment.
"A loss outside the Hexagon puts the Flyers squarely on the bubble, regardless of whether they sweep Richmond and Temple"
Winning those two games (however unlikely), would give Dayton a stunning resume, even if they should lose one other game outside the "Hexagon". Dayton's rpi would surely be top 25 at that point. It would be unprecedented that the Committee would snub Dayton if their rpi was top 25. (Although Dayton does currently hold the record for highest rpi snub, 32 rpi in '08 on Selection Sunday, not only that but they had the highest rpi going into the NIT and got a 3 seed, that season was such a bust, I'm still not over it)
btw, the new Domino's recipe isn't bad, but still not able to compete with marion's or dewey's
I read an article that something like 98 percent of teams with an RPI of 33 or better the past decade go to the tournament.
For what that is worth ...
@jtb4: im working the assumption that 11-5 puts UD on the bubble. the "bubble" being that group of 8-12 teams that battle for the 11/12 seeds each year. Of course, we have no idea where 11 wins puts Dayton in terms of the standings, just think it would difficult to consider them a mortal lock, even with wins against UR and Temple, if they finish sixth in the Atlantic Ten. The bubble, in the sense that i am using it, is pretty inclusive.
Dayton dances if one of these three things happens:
1) Dayton goes 5-1, winning their home games, Dukes and either Temple or Richmond
2) Dayton goes 4-2 and goes to the finals in Atlantic City (which would be one home win and two in AC)
3) Dayton wins the Atlantic 10 Tournament.
Is there still a chance, yes. Is it slim, fuck year. But shit, we have all come this far watching this team ... might as well see what the final 6 brings. Who knows, this team may steal a road game they shouldn't ... it just takes one Wright or CJ 20 plus point game to do it.
It disappoints me you didn't have an alt-text for Majerus.
I received my Kurt Shirt in the mail yesterday. I will be wearing it to the LaSalle game and hope that anyone else who got one will be wearing theirs to the Blackburn court as well.
That is all.
As crazy as it seems Charlotte just lost to Duquense .... if they loose to X on Saturday they drop to 8 and 4
If Dayton wins both games this weekend ... they move to 8-4 (and hold the tie breaker over Charlotte).
Man oh man if SLU CAN BEAT URI (assuming Dayton wins two) ... Dayton would be the fourth highest team in the hexagon.
Jeez, Majerus....what a fat fuck
wow Charlotte way to shit a brick.
This is so perfect, i can't wait to be at the A.J Palumbo Center on Sunday when Dayton falls to the Dukes on a Jason Duty three pointer
The stage/table is set?
I'm not convinced Dayton will keep it close enough for a Duty three to win it. Smart money's on the Dukes by about 8.
The renunciation of success and good ol' Catholic guilt (with a healthy fear of the fire and brimstone right around the corner) is one of the reason I love this site so much.
@Rosceaux: i thought it was the keen insights and analysis?
Came across this gem for Shit House Rat ...
"I went to channelsurfing.net but saw "New Adventures of Old Christine" on there and never made it to the game. What a show!" - MasonFlyer
What is worse that on a Wednesday he actually went to channelsurfing to see a Slu game ... or the fact he thinks that show is great?
Chances he jacks it to Julia Dryfus (sp) at age 90 tonight?
JULIA AND GENTLEMEN ... UD HAS BEEN GIVEN ANOTHER LIFE.
UD just jumped URI in the standings ... Charlotte has X next ...
FUN THREE WEEKS CONTINUES IN A DIFFERENT WAY!
I'd hit Julia Louis Dreyfus, just sayin'
Matty Kav needs to be inserted in the first half of the Dukes game and break Duty's knee. Take one for the team, Matty and don't let that karma come back on us.
@John: are we sure the one that calls himself "Mason Flyer" wasn't joking. If he was, then his comment is brilliant.
Not sure he was ... but if he was ... funny
Big win for Louisville last night, they are right on the bubble.
What the hell happened to Texas?
The more I think about it this morning, last night was great for UD. There is little chance that the A10 gets any less than 4 bids. I think 6 being thrown around was a little ridiculous, but those were "at the moment" projections. I still think 5 is a possibility. We can pencil in Temple, Xavier, and Richmond right now. I would think that UD, with non-conference wins over ODU, GT and then beating Xavier would be the top of the UD, RI, and Charlotte group. Call me crazy, but I think 4-2 puts this team dancing with a home win in the first round of the tournament.
Are we ready to agree now that the A10 has been vastly overrated for the last month or so? This is simply of a case of a conference (or at least a group of teams) perfecting the "RPI game." You can schedule in a way that will inflate your RPI to way better than you actually are (Rhode Island being the most obvious example). This league just isn't very good.
The thing is that the field is so weak this year that it might STILL get 4 teams in. Though if I had to be on it, I'd guess Temple, Richmond, and X only.
@Secaur: No way. The league gets at least 4 teams in, somebody has to be included, right?
@Secaur : I think its pretty clear that the A10 is overrated. We have to remember, no one is making the case that the A10 is a great league--it's just that the other conferences are so weak this season.
That being said, I think X, UR and Temple are locks at this juncture. URI is quickly playing itself out of contention (Charlotte as well). UD has the opportunity to get back on the radar.
@Daddy D: I wouldn't be surprised to see just 3, but you're right - they have to find 65 teams somewhere.
@BB: I wouldn't say no one. A lot of what you would call ham & eggers think the A10 is on par with the Big East and Big Ten just because it might get a similar # of bids. So I have 2 questions:
1) Isn't it finally time to just do away with RPI all together? It's completey outlived its usefulness.
2) If UD doesn't get in this year when the bubble is as weak as its ever been, do UD fans finally hold BG's feet to the fire? Or is the typical fan so oblivious that they think "just missing" this year is the same as just missing any other year, and they're thrilled just to be in the NIT?
@Secaur-Just missing the tourney this year as preseason favorite would be a huge disappointment and will definitely not be like any other season as we should see at least 4 A-14 teams in the tourney. Sure, we could hold BGs "feet to the fire" but this season has been a wild ride that you can just point to his coaching-Marcus's stunning decline, Rob missing the dump off to Chris at St. Joe's, Chris Wright hesitating to switch the screen against RI. I am a BG supporter and I like what he is building at UD.
As a St. Louisian living in Chicago, I often hop over to STLtoday.com to catch my Cardinals coverage, but today I was intrigued to see what they are saying about SLU's back to back wins vs. UD and RI. People over there are clamoring for SLU to be on the bubble. What do you guys make of that 17-8 (8-3) in the league is an okay resume. They still have Temple, Xavier at home and UD on the road. A chance for 3 more quality conference wins. What do you guys make of SLUs chances to jump into this conversation? Also, apparently a student threw a cup on the court after a questionable travel call. Majerus grabbed the mic and threatened to pull SLU off the court and forfeit the game if another item was thrown. Maybe it was that asshole that sucker punched me.
@ Secaur
Disagree that the league has been proven to be overrated. The only that has happened in the past few weeks is that two teams from the middle (St. L and Duquesne) have beaten teams in the top tier. And both of those teams are in the top 100 RPI. Its not like the top teams are losing to crappy teams hovering around RPI 200 like St. Joe's. In fact, up to two weeks ago, there was clear and consistent separation between the top, middle, and bottom. Will that cost bids? Likely. Does it prove the league overated? I think not. The hectagon made their bones OOC, its just a matter of how much they give back within the conference.
@Tweeds
Billikins bid was lost during OOC. They have to win the A-10 tourney. Shame that Ellis wasn't cleared until conference play started.
Also, I watched the game last night. A fan threw a cup of beef stew on the floor, and Majerus threatened to forfeit the game if any beef stew went to waste in the state of Missouri.
The A-10 is a combined 27-77 against the RPI top 50. Nuff said.
@tweeds. If it was your sucker punch guy, he could not have been sitting further than the 3rd row. From what we hear his little arms could not get enough speed up to launch anything.
Since Charlotte has dropped out of the top 50, the top 5 A-10 teams are a combined 19-20 against the RPI to 50.
The A10 isn't overrated, for the reasons Blackburn mentioned. If you're rating leagues, someone has to be rated 6th.
Same logic applies to the bubble teams. There has to be 34 at-large teams. The bubble is so weak this year, I don't think Dayton even has to win at Temple or Richmond, I think 10-6 with a win in AC gets it done. Not sure that will even happen, though.
@Ghetto Shopper- Great point my friend. I must not be thinking clearly since the blow to the head. The kid that hit me kind of looked like Johnny Weir, which your right, no way he gets a cup on the floor from anywhere above the 3rd row.
@ Adam: Great minds think alike.
@ Blackburn: You can't take the whole league into consideration for the A10. Chop off Fordham, Bonny, etc. and see how we look against the top 50, pretty decent. I am sure everyone is aware that the bottom of the A10 is worse than the bottom of the Big Ten.
@ Secau: In regards to BG feeling heat. I think you need to take a step back from the season and not think about this so emotionally right now. Bottom line, if UD gets an 11 seed and gets a win over a Wisconsin or something, then this is all mute. While this season has been a little disappointing so far, winning two games in the tournament (not crazy for this team) would have Flyer fans creaming their pants like Tiger Woods.
In reality, take the "luck" factor into this season. How much different are your feelings if
--- UD wins at St. Joe's?
--- Beats Rhody at home?
--- Closes out SLU on the road?
Switch those three around....3 games by all accounts really and truthfully SHOULD have been wins. It is a whole different view. 20-4 with only 1 loss in the league. That is how close to being really good that this team is. I think any talk of holding BG's feet to the fire are pretty premature. Wait until after this year plays out before we even can discuss that.
@Rosco: RPI means very little to me. I think it's useless. The fact that SLU and Duquense make up the middle of this conference proves my point. In a "normal" year, Temple and Richie are in with X sitting on the right side of the bubble. Since it's such a down year, the conference has 3 "locks" and 3 bubble teams. Funny that when Louisville beats Syracuse, some people argue that the conference is overrated. But when a bad Duquesne team beats Charlotte, it just means there's balance. I ain't buying. Blackburn's stat backs it up.
@Daddy D: But Brian Gregory is a huge part of the REASON UD lost those 3 games. You're making my point for me. That's like saying:
"If BG had his best players on the court for crunch time of the SLU game ... If BG uses his TO against St. Joe's ... If BG draws up a play that can actually get a shot off in OT ..." Aren't you just saying if BG coached better, would I be less likely to criticize him? Well duh.
Anyway, I'm so biased against BG that I can't even analyze it logically at this point. I think he's brutal.
@Daddy D: depends on how you look at it. Considering four of UD's conference win come against the bottom-feeders (Duquesne, Fordham, St. Bonnie and GW), and the strength of the rest of the conference is relevant. If it wasn't for the bottom-half of the conference, the A-10 wouldn't have five teams with 7 to 8 wins already.
@Secaur: totally agree, people are trying to have it both ways. We are going to see how far Charlotte, Rhody and UD fall in the next couple of weeks. Also, let's consider where these "locks" are being seeded. When you top dog is projected as a 5 or 6 seed, at best, that doesn't scream "power conference" to me.
@Secaur - But is he on the hot seat?
I'm not as tough on BG as you are, but he's definitely got some issues. He's the only common factor in the continued road woes. 20-33 in A10 road games is (blackburn voice) turrrrible. Let's pretend Dayton beats Duquesne and loses at Temple and Richmond, that's 21-35 after 7 seasons. An average of 3-5 each year. How we lookin'? Not so good.
Believe me, I am not saying that BG is the best coach in the country and should be mentioned with the likes of Izzo, Self, etc. Yes, look at the road record. But also look at your average D-I road record. I think people constantly forget that after his first year here, he had absolutely nothing. He essentially had to build the program back up again.
I also think the departure of Meachum was a huge blow to him. He basically had to move Roberts over to point and then "find" another PG to place in there. He lost out on some other PG's (Pullen) who could have been a huge help and "found" London. Now, I love London as much as anyone else (probably more) but he is obviously limited. I want to see what he can do with a top tier point guard next year and see if that changes anything.
@Daddy D - Is the goal to be average or is the goal to win league titles and build teams capable of deep March runs? There's no question BG can build pretty good teams, but can he rise above that level? Maybe, but the evidence to date points to no. You can't win league titles with 3-5 road records. He gets credit for dominating at home as well as any UD coach in history, and he's pretty solid on a neutral floor, but until he learns how to win road games UD will be stuck in 10/11 seed territory.
We can come up with any number of reasons why UD loses games in a vacuum, but in the end all signs point to the head coach. He's the only common denominator. To me it comes down to preparation and in game adjustments. 7 years in, these are things that should be improving. They aren't.
Jay, do you really think that more than four A-10 teams will be dancing come march?
Jay Bilas
(2:28 PM)
Yes, but Rhody losing lately has probably put them in some jeopardy. St. Louis is really starting to come on as well. Richmond, Temple, XU, and Dayton are in, Charlotte has won more on the road than any of them, and Rhody and SLU are in the discussion. Great year for the A-10.
@Adam: would you like me to ask him?
@Tom: we have agreed too much lately. I think I'm going to change my mind.
Sorry I'm late on the recon.