Best Case, Worst Case
August 18, 2010 Tom Blackburn ESPN.com blogger Eamonn Brennan, who in my opinion looks just like hunky BR blogger Harry Baujan, revealed his take on the best case/worst case scenario for the Atlantic 10. Nothing mind-blowing, just a straight-forward and predictable take on the conference as a whole.
A few choice nugs:
Dayton
Best case: A 2010-11 NCAA tournament appearance shouldn't be the best case for Dayton. It should be the only case. The Flyers dropped a host of close games on their way to an NIT berth (and eventual title) in 2009-10; all told, they were a bit unlucky to miss out. With forward Chris Wright back for another season, it'd be a shock to see the 2010-11 Flyers suffer the same fate.
Worst case: 2009-10 all over again. This is an NCAA tournament team. Or, at least, it should be.
Have to take exception to what Brennan believes would be a "shock." Even the most ardent Prider wouldn't be surprised to see the Flyers miss the Dance again this season. Yes, UD does bring back enough talent to put itself in the post-season discussion, but there are certainly enough holes to put that possibility in doubt. Relying on freshman is usually a recipe for disaster unless you are Kentucky or Duke. It's hard to imagine that Staten, Parker, et al. will hit the ground running and transition smoothly into Gregory's system. (Not saying it can't or won't happen, just that it's not reasonably foreseeable.) Consider that UD will have next to no interior presence, and it's hard to imagine that an NCAA berth is to be expected.
If the worst case scenario means another appearance in the NIT, I can accept that. I would like nothing more than to replace my current "NIT Champion" car floor mats with a "Back-to-Back NIT Champion" set.
Rhode Island
Best case: Featuring the best returner from a potent offensive lineup -- the Rams finished No. 37 in the country in offensive efficiency last season -- in senior forward Delroy James, the Rams incorporate new 7-foot-3 project Blake Vedder alongside seven-foot center Will Martell to dominate A-10 teams on the interior. If so, the Rams compete for the A-10 title again, and you hear from them in March.
Worst case: Vedder doesn't pan out and guards Marquis Jones, Steve Meija, and Akeem Richmond can't make up for the backcourt losses of Keith Cochran and Lamonte Ullner, leaving the Rams imbalanced and unable to repeat their 26-win 2009-10 season.
The Rams, on paper, present a curious case. With Martell and Vedder, URI boasts the A-10's only Twin Tower combination, albeit a post 9/11 version, but still, those are some tall motherfuckers. (Whenever a seven footer is listed as a "project" you know that means he has the mobility of Stephen Hawking in a closet.) Still, with Jones, James, and Richmond, the Rams have a solid nucleus. If they can get some production, especially defensively, from their mongoloids, Jim Baron's group could compete for a tourney spot.
More than likely, the worst case scenario takes place: a solid, but unspectacular season. URI always seems destined for a late-season swoon, and this year will likely serve up more of the same.
Richmond
Best case: Kevin Anderson is back. That's great news for a Richmond team that broke out in 2009-10, winning 26 games and making the NCAA tournament for the first time in coach Chris Mooney's tenure. If all goes well, Anderson will star again, and the Spiders will justify their considerable preseason hype with an A-10 title.
Worst case: The loss of senior guard David Gonzalez, Richmond's most efficient offensive player last season, leaves Anderson exposed in the backcourt. Senior forwards Justin Harper and Dan Geriot can't make up for the loss of Gonzalez's ability, and the Spiders, instead of surging into the national scene, take a step back into the middle of the A-10 muck.
The more I look at Richmond, the less I like their chances. I say that with all due respect, because I really like Anderson, HC Mooney and the cagey Geriot. However, next to Crawford, Gonzalez will be the hardest player to replace in the conference. Although Harper is solid, and Geriot should be able to contribute more this season, the onus falls squarely on Anderson to carry the Spiders to another NCAA tournament run. While Anderson is certainly one of the most talented, and more importantly clutch, players in the A-10, it's hard to imagine him doing it all by himself.
I still think the Spiders have more than enough to finish top three in the league, but someone needs to step up and take the scoring burden off of Anderson to make this team a consistent performer next season.
Saint Louis
Best case: Were it not for three late losses to three of the league's best teams (Xavier, Temple, and Rhode Island), Rick Majerus' surprising Billikens would have made the NCAA tournament. With most of that talent returning (and, theoretically, maturing), St. Louis's best case features an Atlantic-10 title.
Worst case: The 2009-10 Billikens' defense was never a problem. Their No. 190-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency was. If St. Louis doesn't rebound its own misses or get to the free throw line more frequently than last year, Majerus could have another good-but-not-great season on his hands.
This is it for the Rick, a season that could change the entire culture of the SLU program. The Bills have everything you need to win a title: experience, depth, size, contempt, a healthy understanding of the male form in its natural state. The worst case scenario for Majerus is anything but a trip to the NCAA tournament. There is no silver lining if Saint Louis fails to get it done this year. Just the taunting reminder of what could have been, and towels that never seem to smell fresh, no matter how hard you scrub them.
Temple
Best case: Temple wasn't supposed to win the A-10 title in 2009-10; most thought Fran Dunphy'syoung team needed a year to grow into the role. Not so much: Temple featured one of the nation's best defenses last season, and with all of the key players returning, that shouldn't change. Best case is another title, but this time, with a few NCAA tournament wins to complement it.
Worst case: It's hard to envision Temple taking a step back, but if it does, it will have the loss of Ryan Brooks' efficient point guard play to thank. For as good as its defense was, Temple can't afford to worsen on offense.
Temple is going to be in the field of 68, mark it down. They got the coaching, the defense and enough pieces to dominate the conference again this year. The worst case scenario for this program would be an erratic A-10 performance, one that leads to a 8+ seed in the NCAA tourney. The Owls will be looking to play into the second weekend this season. Ramone Moore steps in for Brooks, and Temple doesn't miss a beat.
Xavier
Best case: The Musketeers lost a lot this offseason. Star guard Jordan Crawford, one of the country's most exciting scorers, is off to NBA pastures, and anchor forward Jason Love, the team's most efficient offensive player, graduated. If Jamel McLean can make up for Love's absence and Terrell Holloway can assume some of Crawford's scoring load, Xavier should be able to do what it always does: win in the A-10 and make the NCAA tournament.
Worst case: This is easier to envision, though not necessarily more likely. Crawford was incredibly high-usage last season -- he took the 12th-highest percentage of his team's shots in the country -- and if Xavier struggles to plug that hole with Holloway and crew, Xavier could break its impressive streak of NCAA tournament runs.
Xavier is Xavier. The worst case scenario never seems to happen to programs like theirs. I'm not confident that Xavier will win the league this year, no one seems to be, but I'd bet good money that they will once again make the postseason. Xavier, like Dayton, may need some of its freshmen to step up and produce immediately to enjoy a successful campaign.
You can't fully judge the Musketeers until they start playing their conference slate. Although they may take some lumps in the OOC schedule, X should have no problem winning 10-12 conference games this year. Xavier, and Temple, are always the most mentally prepared teams coming into league play, so don't be surprised if Xavier is competing for the league crown come mid-February.
eamonn brennan, espn, filler, xavier FTW 
Reader Comments (34)
I think we will dance. A-10 is a little down and our talent level is up.
With our schedule, you don't need a true number 5. I would rather have Benson play the 5 a lot and have us run a "true center" to death where he becomes ineffective and has to foul trailing the pack.
Honestly, who knows ... we may still shit the bed on the road and it could be the same story ... I just think the talent will outweigh it and we should get it done.
@John: I have no fucking clue at this point. Other than Temple not winning the league, I think anything could happen.
Lot's of variables going into the season. Can PW, Spearman and Parker combine to produce more at the 2 over the course of the season than the MJ/PW combo did? Can anyone replace Kurt Huelsman's career avg of 4 and 3? Will the expected improvement in PG play translate to NCAA appearance and wins? How many times can the coaching messiah skull fuck a road win away?
This season could go either way, just hope someone steps up for London's off court value to this site.
So the new buzzword is "efficiency"?
@Cjnt: Eamonn Brennan is a horrible writer.
@Charles - if no one fills in for LW's off-court endeavors I think many people around here will be very disappointed. How else will we explain away horrible play?
@Charles
Forget about Kurt's 4 and 3...who's going to replace Rob's last second runs of ineptitude down the court?
I think people will realize pretty quickly how awful the senior class last year really was, Marcus Johnson aside. BA-RUTAL. Dayton dances this year...and will be a threat for the second weekend. Too much talent. This is 2010, freshman do good things all over the landscape. Staten can handle the pressure just fine. Josh Benson will add the scoring element in the post and Kavanaugh will be just fine.
With Blackburn on Richmond. On the surface they seem great, but dig a little deeper and they could struggle. Replacing Gonzalvez will be harder than most think.
Xavier's going to be good, no question about it. How good ultimately will be up to Holloway. He has to be the guy. Lyons is more of a combo than a true point, so they don't really have any other floor leaders after Holloway. Jackson will do his usual sucking except the home game vs UD and 2-3 other games. McLean is decent. Kenny Frease is the second biggest factor for them. He has to decide if he's good or shitty.
Temple is the early season favorite, but far from a lock.
I fear Charlotte more than Rhody. If Major can get them to remember defense exists, they will be good.
SLU will be SLU. Awful to watch. Style of play will lose them as many games as it wins. Not gonna sweep Dayton this year, going to X...not a huge threat to win the league. May scrape out a top 4.
What are the best/worse case looks for Fordham?
The way we ended last year ... and the talent upgrade, especially at the most important position on the court smells good to me.
Once again, I am still waiting to see exactly how we open our season ... but I think we have the talent to dance this year.
More-so than the previous two years.
@Adam: sooooo....you'd be shocked if UD missed the tourney?
@Paul: best case = two wins in A-10 play. worst case = molestation allegations.
@Blackburn-You are right on Mr. Brennan not being a good writer, and I'd expect nothing less from an ESPN employee. Sure he through some points in there about the loss of Crawford and Gonzalez, but essentially for every team it was best case scenario "they make the tournament and potentially win the league" worst case "they don't" insightful, Huh?
@Charles Hustle-You're dead on with your first point. Whats our production going to be like at the 2 spot? Should be really interesting to see how the combo of PW, Spearman, and Parker does. It wasn't that long ago that PW was a trillionaire, I'm somewhat concerned, but I'm under the impression Spearman is going to be awesome.
After reading the Rhode Island preview, is anyone else excited about the possibility of Matt Kavs matching up against a couple 7 foot projects? Huelsman courtside? Circling those dates on my calendar now.
Every year I read some moron talk about the talent upgrade--this has been going on ever since Gregory took the job.
Still last season UD graduated Warren, Lowery, and Perry and Kurt H.
Some upgrade.
However I do see this team making the show.
One needs to understand that in order for a Gregory club to be successful, he must have far greater talent than the other a-10 coaches.
If all things are equal---Gregory gets smashed.
But it is possible that Gregory assembles a team so talented that Dayton could win the conference.
@Blackburn - Shocked isn't the right word, but it would definitely be a pretty big letdown. Combine a talent upgrade with a more favorable league home/away split and this team has everything needed to improve on last year. No excuses, time for people to nut up and expect growth.
Let's all keep in mind that this "talent upgrade" that has been talked so frequently about, is untested. Other than Parker playing well in the MVC, there is a big jump from high school ball to college ball. I will agree that on paper, this COULD be a talent upgrade. Let's not all jump to conclussions here, as I think the prider's view of Staten being the 2nd coming of Christ, has rubbed off on a few of you.
Predictions aside, I'm disappointed that no one has commented on Brennan's use of " if Xavier struggles to plug that hole with Holloway and crew"....its almost too easy.
Speaking of Xavier, if we are going to talk about how good our freshmen coming in are, then we have to play the same game with Xavier. They have a good freshmen class coming in spearheaded by the 6'6 SG Justin Martin who is rated #46 overall in the 2010 class.
Tweeds I do have to take a dig at you for bashing the guy's writing and following up with "Sure he through some points in there..." Threw, he threw some points in there.
Lastly, Blackburn I am so much sexier than this hack is.
@Harry Baujan: as the BR's resident sex symbol, I just didn't want to go overboard in pumping your ego up. Great point on Xavier's class, it's every bit as good (if not better) than UD's.
Untested talent > Tested shitty players
Trust.
@Harry-Great dig, you caught me red handed not proofreading my posts. Let me put this in Eammonn Brennan terms...Best case scenario: While typing quick posts on BR, I spell every word correctly, Worst Case: I don't, you catch me, and proceed to take a "dig."
@Everyone-Does anyone know the equation that gets us to "adjusted offensive efficiency"? Apparently, SLU's was 190. I'd love to see what UDs was last year considering we struggled majority of the time to get into our half court offense with a basic guard to wing pass.
@Harry...Blackburn and I have said that Xavier's class is better than UD's ever since signing period ended. Roger Bohn said the same thing too. I like where your head is though.
Regardless of how well they play this year, this is still Dayton and they will still lose some on the road. I am excited to see how they play vs the better teams of the non conference.
Re: Xavier and Dayton classes
It really depends on how you evaluate a class. Xavier's on paper is a bit more top heavy with Martin, Latham and Canty, compared to Staten and Spearman as known, legit top 150 and BCS type talents. After that Dayton has Hill and Oliver, both should turn out to be good depth guys at a minimum. Xavier has Griffin McKenzie, an even slower and worse shooting version of Lukey Luke...and I'd bet dollars to donuts will be transferring to NKU after two seasons. He's just not very good. Unfortunately he also got jumped by some massive scumbags and has a broken jaw, and will likely redshirt.
Now, Xavier's 2011 class is absurd. But for this year's class I think Dayton gets more from their guys overall, both this year and the three years after.
@Adam: Xavier's 2011 class is fucking scary, they just keep doin' it.
@ tman
You rim asshole
tman owns John.
tman rims MALE asshole and eats POOP
Get Loose boys!
Best case: Tman stays and is tormented
Worse case: Tman rims ass
Note to self: don't poke fun at tweeds unless you want him to overreact to some playful banter.
Anyone else rooting for a Greece vs. Serbia showdown at World's after the chair throwing brawl that occurred? You can bet your ass there will be plenty of bow's being thrown in the post if those teams meet up again.
Bobby Buckets drops 17 on the Krauts in his debut (according to his facebook).
i hope that URI's big guy gets some playing time, if only so I can go the whole season making "Darth Vedder" jokes
Or Pearl Jam lyrics.
"Why is Vedder still in the game?"
"Can't find a better man."
@Harry-no need to hold back. I was joking as well. I enjoyed the playful banter. I guess my sarcasm wasn't clear in the comments. Carry on!
@Adam-Great Pearl Jam reference
as Frank Reynolds would say, 'my intel tells me' that is seems as though X got pretty serious about their investment that was Kenny Frease over the past few months. i guess towards the end of the year he wasn't allowed to go home and had to stay in Cincy all summer but also had to go somewhere on the east coast to train. really whipping his lazy ass into shape.
@Harry and Donoher
Great to see the B team check in this summer...i see O'B is busy cementing his place as the Favre of the staff. Over-under on seeing his by-line before the second exhibition game?
@Tweeds, lets hug and make up.
@Timmycouch, an in shape, disciplined Kenny Frease scares me. If he's been working out and put on some muscle and shed away some of that baby fat he had, he will make big dog his bitch in the post next year.
@BRPride, I have no problem being a B-List BR writer, but don't you dare put me on the same level as Donoher, thats just plain insulting. I like where your head is at with the Favre reference, but to think he is cementing is place as that role is to overlook the fact that Ollie is still "employed" at BR. It is going to be a tight battle for the Favre of the BR staff.