The Great American Preview Post

One of my friends is a huge NFL Draft guy. He loves it so much, he calls it Draftmas and gets hammered for it every year. He's a big NFL fan in general, but nothing gets him more excited than Roger Goodell coming to the podium to make an announcement. Will there be a trade? Will his team waste a pick on an Ohio State player? Is there a cure for the common herpes infection? It's sad, it really is. Not that there isn't a cure for herpes, well that is sad, but that the best moment of his year is in the off-season. That's what you get for being a Browns fan. For Flyer fans, the past 8 months have been excruciating, because we know we have a great team, and we know that this season has the potential to be our best ever.

Sure this blog has the tendency to be bit negative at times, but its mostly because we have a tendency to push away those we love for fear of abandonment. Over-affection for our mother's aside, I can assure you that we all dream of a Final Four berth and would only say it out loud standing on an Indian burial ground while holding a shovel. The season is about to start and we are ready to win and drink Beast till the break of dawn, while spraying 40's on 19 year old girls and hoping they react the same way they would if Marcus were holding the bottle. This is the final prediction post we will make, and I promise I am just as happy they are over as you are. Without further ado, a post for you to skim while drinking your morning coffee. From here on out, no more abstract conversations, it's pure basketball. Until Donoher comes back from vacation of course.

1. Breakout player. Who is going to greatly increase their numbers and play from last season?

Big Dog gonna eat.Donher: I gotta pick Chris Johnson as my breakout player.  i see him easily averaging 10 points a game with about 6-7 boards.  Next year he will even get better.  He showed signs of brilliance last year but was very sporadic.  I hope Gregory gives him at least 20-25 minutes a game this year.  He should be starting this year and if not, definitely the first guy off the bench.

Ollie: Devin Searcy.  It's an easy pick now that's he's been named a starter, but I really think he fits the system well.  He's a run and jump big man in a system that likes to get up and down the court.  I love his demeanor too.  Perhaps, his skills could use some refining, but he's relentless and aggressive. Add those traits to his athleticism, and multiply by increased minutes, and I think he surprises this season.  Nothing extravagant, let's say 6 and 5 with a block for good measure.

Blackburn: This is an easy one for me. The obvious choice would appear to be CJ, but I feel like he has already “broken out.” My pick is Big Dog Searcy. I’m not saying that he is going to average a double-double, but I think he will have two or three games that make people take note and question why he isn’t getting more minutes. From everything I’ve read, it seems like Searcy really took his game seriously this summer and I’ll think we’ll see him take shit to a new level.  

O'Brien: Paul Williams. I’m going to save my breath because I already waxed poetic about my affection for him. Dayton needs shooters (sit down Luke) who can play great defense (I told you to sit down Luke) and Mr. Williams fits that bill. If he lives up to the lofty expectations he arrived in our Marianist Mecca with, Dayton will elevate their play to a higher plane. Dark Horse? Kurt. (/ducks shoe)

2.  Disappointing player. Who is a player coming into this season with hype and will fall woefully short of said hype.

Blackburn: Although I could definitely see Kountry Chris not living up to his press this season, I think the most likely candidate would be Marcus Johnson. MJ is entering his final year in the Gem City, and perhaps may feel pressured to force the issue at times. That being said, I don’t necessarily think Marcus will disappoint, but his numbers may slip a bit this season.

Ollie: I'd like to preface this like a pussy and say I hope he proves me to be an idiot, but I think Paul Williams is exposed as a charlatan this year.  He's looked decent in the exhibitions but I just can't forget him being blown by on consecutive possessions by Lamont Mack last season.  This from a player who's a lockdown defender?  To me, it looks like an injury (the mysterious foot injury?).  Athletically he just doesn't look like a D1 player to me.  And if you don't have the athleticism, you better either be huge or able to fill it up Reddick-style (right Luke?).  To me, he just seems to lack any skill or ability that would get him on the floor.  Like I said though, hope he proves me wrong.

O'Brien: I know it’s a bit obvious, but Chris Wright. Not in the conventional terms that he’ll be terrible, because he won’t be. I just think he falls into some of the same habits he had last season. His free throw percentage will be disappointing, which is almost criminal considering the driving to the basket is such a key component to his game, and I also think he continues to disappear a few times a season. Jack Daniels, I hope I’m wrong.

Donoher: Have I ripped Matt Kavanaugh enough on this site?  I feel terrible for saying this because I am sure Matt is a nice guy, but come on...he is a white kid from Centerville.  Warm and Cheerful Centerville.  "The larges collection of early stone houses in the state of Ohio."  He was recruitd by mid-level MAC schools.  From my sources, he comes from a rich family.  He has never had to work for anything in his life.  He's been the tallest player throughout his career.  Yeah he played well vs some Villanova recruits, like Blackburn said, "Anyone can have 1 or 2 good games and their stock rises."  Saying that Kavanaugh will be the next James Cripe is an insult to James Cripe...I'm sorry.

3. Conference play; The A14 is a whole new beast this season. Is this the year Dayton  beats X in Cin City? Or is this the year Dayton folds like Oliver at the blackjack table against LaSalle? Where do we end the season, and in which tournament? From Left to Right: Thunderdome

Ollie: I think we take second in the A10 and qualify for the only tournament that matters.  While I fight against the urge to be pessimistic about these Flyers, they return essentially the entirety of a pretty good team.  As I've told anyone who'll listen, "Did you at any time last season truly think this was a dominant team?"  and generally the response involves some mumbling and shifting of feet.  I think we make the tournament as a double digit seed and then go quietly into the night, as quietly as a mouse pissing on a cotton ball.

O'Brien: YES, YES, AND YES. First of all, Oliver is terrible at blackjack. Second, I have full expectations that Dayton is going to take the A10. I don’t predict it’s going to be a landslide, I think we squeak it out. I have a lot of evidence to back it up, but I left it in my other keyboard.

Donoher: Fuck no, Dayton won't win in Cincinnati this year. Come on now.  Mark Dayton down for at least 4 losses on the road (Xavier, St. Louis, Richmond, St. Joe's/Temple).  Mark them down for at least 1 more loss at home, I'll say LaSalle.  They will not lose at home in non-conference play.  So let's see here...2 non-conference losses plus 5 conference losses.  23-7, most likely 3rd or 4th place in the league.  Win 1 game in the A-14 tournament, hold your breath, 11 seed, first round win, second round loss.  Wow...I am a negative nancy. 

Blackburn: If ever there was a year for UD to break the hex in Cincy, this is it. However, I still don’t see it happening. This is the same team that looked absolutely shell-shocked at Xavier last season, and I think the Muskies extend the streak to 25. The Flyers have a mental block away from the Arena, and no place has a stranglehold on UD like Xavier’s home court.

The possibilities for this season are endless. If you told me that Dayton finishes fifth in the conference and ends up in the NIT, I’d believe you. If you told me that Dayton wins the A-10 and plays in the second week of the NCAA tournament, I’d believe you. I have feeling it will be somewhere in between. As of now, I’d guess that UD has a similar year as last season and gets a 8/9 seed in the Dance.

4. Does CW go pro? What country does MJ finish his career in? Does BG stay in Dayton? Will the new Stuart Street Bridge carry champions or failures?

Marcus, if you need an agent or entourage member, you know where to reach meO'Brien: You other guys are so long winded, I’m stream lining this one. No, Flyer Jesus returns again to grace UD, Mr. Johnson heads to Sweden….for obvious reasons…BG leaves Dayton and moves to Kettering, and the Stuart Street Bridge collapses. I bet you didn’t see that coming.

Donoher:Wright announces he will go pro but doesn't hire an agent, realizes he won't get drafted, comes back.  Marcus plays in Germany.  Is Stuart Street bridge fucking done yet?

Blackburn: As I said earlier this fall, there is absolutely no way Wright wants to stay in Dayton for his senior season. Although the hype and PR machine is clearly out pacing the actual talent, I think Wright declares but doesn’t sign on with an agent. I don’t think Chris is going to like what scouts have to say—and assure you he isn’t going to like the possibility of second round non-guaranteed money. Although I’m not as confident as I was a few months ago, I think Wright comes back for his senior year simply because his pro prospects are too murky.

MJ will have a nice career over in Europe somewhere. I don't think MJ is holding onto NBA dreams, so I don't see the NBDL in his future. I think he is comfortable knowing he can get paid to play basketball and probably isn't worried about where he lays his head down each night.

As far as BG, time will tell. I think he could leave at the end of this season depending on what jobs are open and what his prospects look like. I think he has a pretty good thing going here in Dayton, and as long as UD lives up to expectations he should see some decent offers come his way in the near future. It's ultimately going to come down to timing, when the right job opens up, he is gone.Hey Chris, I got the perfect franchise for you.

Ollie: I'm completely baffled by Wright's flirtation with the NBA.  I don't know if he's buying the sweet nothings being whispered by agents, because he doesn't look like an NBA player to these eyes.  But then again, quite a few respected NBA Draft websites think fairly highly of him.  It seems delusional to me, but I think he goes pro and falls to the second round.  Unless he improves his shot well beyond my expectations he'll never be anything more than a leaper and defensive stopper in the NBA.

Marcus is one of my favorite players on the team.  I truly believe he's in it for the success of the team and not out for individual stats.  But I think we all know well enough what Marcus is, a great second option on a good college team.  If anything, I think Marcus's offensive numbers may take a small step backwards this year.  Don't feel bad for Marcus.  Remember the best weekend of your senior year, where you were drunk for 72 consecutive hours and slept with girls impossibly out of your league?  That's every weekend for Marcus.

BG will leave at some point.  And he isn't waiting for Izzo to leave Michigan State.  He's just waiting for a big enough paycheck.  The first legit Big 10, SEC, or Big East school that shows up at his door with a little bit of history and an Ed McMahon check wins his services.

5. In 5 years when we look back at this team, what will we say?

Donoher: {Ed. Note: Donoher forgot to answer this question before leaving to go to Canada on his honeymoon, so feel free to guess what he would have said in the comments.}

Blackburn: I will say that this team doesn’t live up to the expectations, which for argument’s sake means reaching the Sweet 16. There are just too many offensive limitations to think this team could reach those heights this season. On a positive note, I think this is the year that solidifies UD’s place on the college basketball landscape. Dayton will reach the next tier, joining the likes of Butler, Gonzaga, Xavier, etc. as a program to be respected, yet not feared.

Ollie: It'll be a happy memory.  We're in for an exciting and successful season.  But, of course, the Flyer fans who believe we're capable of being Duke will be disappointed and the bitching and moaning will ensue.  This pains me more than I can explain, but the absolute peak of expectations for UD is what X has experienced the past few years.  A couple of fluke runs with some talented players and the right coach before he bolts for the cash.  Kinda of sounds like this year, huh?

O'Brien: Our realistic ceiling in the Sweet 16. I know some fans will see that as a disappointment, but in reality that means we'll have won three NCAA Tournament games in two years. We set the table to be a program to recon with for the next decade. I'd almost say that the past two year's success is better than George Mason making it to the Final Four. GMU made it that far and everyone said they were a fluke and it showed when they failed to turn that success into top recruits. On the other hand, I think people will look at Dayton and say that they are building a top flight program that will be a mainstay on the national stage.

Fourteen Stabs at Prestige

A friend of the ReviewNovember 14th begins what is arguably the most anticipated event in the city of Dayton since Smashburger announced it was opening up shop on Brown Street. All-conference accolades, an elite recruiting class and a top 25 ranking are just some of the distractions that pacified the Faithful this fall. Now comes the hard part, the aspect UD unfortunately has no experience with, living up to the hype. When the Creighton Bluejays come to the Gem City on Saturday, the buildup will finally come to a crescendo. Once the ball is tipped, the Flyers have 40 minutes to prove their proponents rights, their detractors wrong. For the first five minutes each and every Flyer fan will be able to relate to what it must feel like to be Magic Johnson while he waits for his T cell count, as the butterflies will be churning in the Arena's collective stomachs.

So why go through that anxiety and uncertainty? Let us do the work for you, we will even show our work. Listed below are the most well-reasoned and sensible predictions that four men with a combined IQ of 250 could possibly come up with. Each prognostication has been heavily scrutinized by both Art Schlichter and Lenny Davola, this guy that hangs outside the OTB on 69th Street here in New York. Schlichter's gaming reputation is sterling, and while Lenny has been known to drop heat behind dumpsters, his keen eye for analyzing games of chance are second to none. So with our credentials and advisors established, let's turn to what will eventually become fact in a few short weeks.

Blackburn: The Bluejays whomped the Flyers by 18 last year and put us in our place. Not this year. The Arena will be the deciding factor as UD wins a close one. Booker Woodfox is not coming through that door, no matter how badly I wish he would.
O'Brien: Dayton gets their revenge. Creighton is a quality team and a win over them will set the tone for Puerto Rico.
Oliver: Thank the powers that be, Mr. Booker Woodfox has left the building.  Flyers by 50.

Blackburn: Tech arguably has an advantage at every position. Favors will have his way inside with Huelsman and Searcy. Gani Lawal is a more complete player than his counterpart, Chris Wright. Iman Schumpert poses major matchup problems for the Flyers. Tech will employ an up-tempo attack and has the depth it sorely lacked last year. Jackets win this one by double-digits. I have a feeling this one will sober up a lot of Flyer fans.
Oliver: Is Derrick Favors more Elton Brand than Derrick Caracter? It'll go a long way in deciding this game.  The Yellow Jackets back court has been less than impressive, but it's not for lack of talent.  I think they have too much size inside and we lose by 8.

Oliver: With a loss, we're likely to get our first look at George Mason.  George Mason lost a fair amount of talent, but also have a full enough cupboard that they should still be a solid team.  On a neutral floor and BG casually attired (why the relaxed dress code at these resort tournaments?), I think we win in a close one. Who we'd play next is pretty much a toss-up, but I'm going to guess either Mississippi or Indiana.  Ultimately, it could end up being a big game down the road because both teams will rack up some BCS conference wins.  I like our chances against either.
Blackburn: With Villanova winning in the first round, UD will go up against George Mason. Let's mark that one down as a win, GMU doesn't have the same talent level it did during its Final Four run. The third game will likely be against either Ole Miss or Indiana. Either way, I think we win and we leave Puerto Rico with a 2-1 record, albeit without the type of wins we were probably hoping for.

Oliver: Pay the man!  Towson comes to town for some Marion's pizza and a big, fat paycheck.  They were terrible last year and look to be worse this year.
O'Brien: Roll mighty Flyers.
Donoher: Win, at home, shitty team. Dayton should win this one by 15.
Blackburn: Easy win at home. I could coach this one from my couch while I watch Back to School on VHS.

O'Brien: Dayton flexes its might again, but only after shooting 30% from the field in a close victory over our popped collared friends to the south.
Blackburn: I'm not sure what kind of television coverage this one will get, but take my advice and skip it. UD wins a close one as Miami has a way of making the Flyers look absolutely ordinary each year.
Oliver: Nobody should be forced to watch such an affront to basketball.  These two will duke it out until the first team hits 50; or until Charlie Coles finally keels over on the sideline.  Prolly 50/50 either way.  They lost Bramos and don't really have much to replace him.  I think the Flyers have too much talent and athleticism.  Flyers by a dozen.

Donoher: See Towson. Shitty game, shitty team, UD should win by 15.
Blackburn: This game will look like an alumni vs. players game. UD takes this one in a blowout  and Brian Gregory will chide Lehigh's players for not getting into Ivy League schools.
O'Brien: I don't like the entire state of Pennsylvania. Blowout at home.
Oliver: Pay the man!  Lehigh finished in the bottom half of the Patriot League last year.  It sounds like they return some talent, but there's little to fear from teams that strive for a birth in the CBI.

Blackburn: Flyers win round two with the Patriots, this time in Fairfax. It'll be another close one, as Mason is tough at home (14-0 at home last season).
Donoher: Win, but a close one. Like Tom and Jim said on the podcast, Mason still has an aura of "giant killer" when in reality they haven't done anything since 2004.
Oliver: A strong mid-major program, the type I'd like to see us play year in, year out.  It should be a tough matchup, especially since it's a toss-up if we'll even show up on the road.  They recruit as well as any mid-major.  I'm taking the Patriots because we're inept on the road.

Donoher: Yawn. Wake me up when we play someone decent at home. Flyers by 10.
O'Brien: We're entering what will be the easiest stretch of our schedule and I think it's about this time that we lose focus. I said on the cast that this would be a game we lose, and I'm gonna stick by that prediction. They have a talented big man named Gerald Lee and return most of their players to a team that ranked 19th in scoring defense and 11th in rebounding margin. Chances are we beat them and keep steamrolling, but I think this loss might just be what the doctor ordered. Chris Wright disappears, Luke Fab throws up a solid 1-12 from three point range, and Kurt scores 12 in what must be a sign of the apocalypse.
Oliver: This is a game the casual fan overlooks. Old Dominion won 25 games last season (though 3 were in the CBI) and is a favorite to win the CAA (along with George Mason). They return quite a bit, including their leading scorer, but you don't come to Dayton and expect to win when your university sounds like the name of a bad retirement village.

Blackburn: We will see Zesterman and Nourse.
Oliver: I don't believe you could craft a less intimidating opponent.  Nicknamed the Blue Hose (apparently some Scottish attire reference) with a student body of 1,300, and they have one less than impressive upperclassman on the roster.  This one should be over before Presbyterian's bus arrives.  Dayton by 20.
Donoher: ...an easy W.

Oliver: Again, not very good last year, and not expected be this year.  And thus we are not Michigan, we win big.  BG hits the Dayton Swim Club to relax after the game.
Blackburn: The Moutaineers will come, pick up their check, and take their beating like men.

Oliver: After Binghampton imploded like the Hindenburg last month, the Terriers are a favorite to win the American East.  They should provide a stout test and obnoxious accents. I think we run them out of the gym.  Flyers in a close one.
Blackburn: Brothers in arms. Boston lives in the shadow of Boston College, we live in the shadow of Xavier. This one has the possibility of an upset, as the Terriers return four starters and nine seniors. Still, I like UD's defense to shut down BU and pull away late.
Donoher: The America East sucks, Dayton wins by 10.

Oliver: I found this while searching for some info on the Lobos: "New Mexico has an older guy who leads the student section. He is called “The Snake,” because he hisses at opposing teams. The Snake is small, but tattooed from head to toe. He sits by the visitors bench, and is relentless.  He calls out things about families, religion, and other topics." Need I say more?  Though Alford with have his team ready to play, I think we have too much talent and we send "The Snake" home in tears.  Flyers in a close one.
Blackburn: This is the type of environment that gives the Flyers the shakes. Throw in the fact that they are traveling across the country and I have to mark this one down as a loss. Fortunately, this game is probably an expected L, so it won't shake UD's foundation. The Lobos' lack of size means New Mexico in a close one.
O'Brien: We're heading into the Pit to face a well coached team that won 20 games last season. This is another game that I'm going to reverse course on. Dayton takes a loss here, but it's one that they can shake off. It's going to be hard for the Flyers to be sharp, and our lack of a perimeter game means a Flyer loss in Albuquerque.

Blackburn: Dayton gets by Letterman's alma mater--and just so we are clear, America is completely cool with Dave sexing up undergrads, right?
O'Brien: Four days from conference play, this is merely a tune-up. Our shooting gets back on track and we get healthy for Duquesne.
Oliver: Terrible last year, likely to be terrible this year. They've struggled holding onto the ball.  The Flyers smell blood in the water and crush the Cardinals early. On a side note, have you ever been to Muncie?  Holy shit, it's like the bastard child of Gary, Indiana and Dayton. Consider yourself warned.
Donoher: Yawn, another shitty MAC team. Dayton gets a big win entering conference play.

So there you have it, although we didn't reach a complete consensus on the outcomes, we agree that there are probably two losses to be sprinkled throughout the non-conference schedule. Let's do some math that even a Wright State grad could understand: 12 non-con wins, 12 wins in the A-10, throw in 2 victories in the conference tourney--and you got 26 wins. That's enough for a NCAA Tournament bid and a 8-10 seed in the Big Dance. Don't be surprised if this post disappears when it becomes ridiculously inaccurate.