A-10 Field Trip Succesful

This isn't plugged in and I'm not going to listen to anything you say. Ok, go!The McGlade Brigade was present and accounted for today in New York. The coaches met, were no doubt charmed by the effervescent Ray Floriani, ate some cheese cubes and determined the order in which teams would finish behind Xavier this season.

The results:

2011-12 A-10 Men's Basketball Predicted Order of Finish
1. Xavier (18) 304
2. Temple (4) 287
3. Saint Louis 239
4. St. Bonaventure 217
5. Richmond 196
6. Dayton 168
7. St. Joseph's 165
8. George Washington 163
9. Duquesne 151
10. Rhode Island 117
11. Charlotte 115
12. Massachusetts 107
13. La Salle 52
14. Fordham 29

The Flyers were picked sixth, which seems about as good as one could hope given the unknowns the club faces this season. Our Overlords to the South are the clear runaway pick to win the league, with Temple a close second. Obviously, SLU and Bonaventure return a healthy chunk of their rosters from last season and are expected to perform accordiingly. After that? No one really knows, let's be honest.  I assume every coach quickly jotted down Xavier and Temple at the top of their list, and Fordham at the very bottom, and then handed their ballots to a bathroom attendant to fill out.

As far as individual accolades are concerned, UD's representation was rather sparse. Chris Johnson was named to the Preseason A-10 Second Team and Paul Williams regained his Most Stoic title.

From the A-10 press release:

Xavier senior guard Tu Holloway and St. Bonaventure senior center Andrew Nicholson were both named to the Preseason First-Team All-Conference team. Holloway, the defending A-10 Player of the Year, and Nicholson, last year’s A-10 leading scorer and a postseason all-conference first-teamer, were both selected last week as preseason candidates for the prestigious Wooden Award. Temple seniors Ramone Moore and Juan Fernandez were also selected to the Preseason All-Conference First Team. Moore was a second-team all-conference selection last season and Fernandez was named to the third team. George Washington’s Tony Taylor, a second-team all-conference honoree in 2010-11, rounded out the first-team selections.

Seniors Chris Johnson (Dayton) and Kenny Frease (Xavier) were both named to the preseason all conference second team. They were joined by juniors Mark Lyons (Xavier), Chris Gaston (Fordham) and Kwamain Mitchell (Saint Louis).

Seniors Scootie Randall of Temple and Charlotte’s Derrio Green were both named to the third team. Green’s teammate Chris Braswell and Saint Joseph’s Carl Jones, both juniors were also on the third team as was Duquesne sophomore T.J. McConnell.

Holloway, Nicholson, McConnell were also selected for the All-Defensive team. Senior Darrius Garrett (Richmond) and sophomore C.J. Aiken (Saint Joseph’s) were also named to the all-defensive team.

There was a tie in the All-Rookie team voting, resulting in a six-member team. Jerrell Wright (La Salle), Cady LaLanne (Massachusetts), Alonzo Nelson-Odada (Richmond), Anthony Lee (Temple), Dezmine Wells (Xavier) and Justin Martin (Xavier) were all named preseason all-rookie.

So there you go, absolutely no expectations are being placed on the Flyers collectively or individually. And that's fine with me. 

Kav is King

A new podcast is up, with all the excitement and intellect you would expect. We finally get to hear from Harry Baujan, one of the most charitable men ever to walk this planet. It's kuality with a K.

Head on over to the podcast section if you are so inclined.

The Skeleton of the URI Rams

I had the pleasure of trading emails with Paul Kenyon of The Providence Journal to get a read on the URI Rams, or the lack thereof. Paul has a lot of insight and knows his stuff when it comes to Northeastern sports. I encourage you all to check back with the Projo throughout the season to get updates on the Rams. Paul even had this to say about the BR, "If I remember correctly, I answered a few questions about URI last year for your site. The site is very well done, as good as any in the A-10." Always nice to get praise from other guys in the blogosphere. Without further ado, here is my Q&A with Paul Kenyon that raises more questions as a result:

PK: I have to tell you, I don't know if I have ever had less of a read on the team in the 20 years I've been covering them. So many things have happened since April that they've gone from looking very good to having definite questions. I try to explain it all here.... 

HB: The Rams lost about 26 points and 10 rebounds a game between Cothran and Ulmer, besides the obvious answer of Delroy James, who is going to step up and fill the void left by those two? 

PK: The team has been among the scoring leaders for the last several years and I expect that will continue. James will, indeed, be the man. He should be among the conference scoring leaders. Baron loves having a two-headed scoring threat, rather than just one. The guy who will be expected to move in as option 1A is Akeem Richmond. He set the A-10 freshman record for 3s last season and, with more playing time with Cothran gone, will be given every opportunity to score even more this time.

If you are looking for someone else to be a double-figure scorer, I'd go with Ben Eaves. He's a senior and Connecticut transfer who has had injury problems in the past. He's got big-time ability. If he can average 11 or 12, the Rams will be just fine offensively.

HB: I don't think I have fully recovered from the ridiculousness that was the URI 65-64 win at UD Arena last year. With that being said, the Rams will play host to the Flyers on Feb 9th about halfway through conference play. It would be too easy for me to ask who will win that game as it is a 50-50 shot, instead that will be the 23rd game of the season for the Rams, where do you see their W/L being at that point?

PK: Bad news for Flyer fans. Marquis Jones, who has beaten Dayton at the buzzer is still around. It is his last go round. He's a senior, so he has just one more chance to be a hero again against Dayton. By game 23, URI could have won anywhere from 12 to 17. I will go with 15-7 when the Flyers visit the Ryan Center. 

HB: Give me your assessment on how URI faired at the ever so irrelevant A-10 Media Day projections of fifth in the conference with Delroy James picking up 2nd team all conference honors?

PK: I was one of those who voted. I listed the Rams fifth, so I guess I can't argue with the way everyone else voted. The ballot asked you to vote for players from 15 to 1, with 15 being the best in the conference. I listed James as 11, meaning I think he will make the first team with Wright, Allen, Anderson and Saunders. I also listed Richmond (Akeem that is, not the Spiders) as the 15th pick, meaning I think he will make the third team.

HB: Coming off of 26 wins and a 9-7 finish in conference the Rams have added ANOTHER seven footer as well as two highly touted wingmen in Mabry and Lockridge, are Rams fans overly optimistic in expecting the same amount of wins this season?

PK: Here is where the bad news for URI comes up. The two touted wings you speak of will not play. Lockridge, who is more of a 3 than a 2, did not qualify. He is in school and should be ready to go next season.  Mabry, who is 6-5 and from North Carolina (as is Richmond) said he felt homesick after two weeks in school and left. The players tell me he had problems adjusting in summer school, too, and stayed in his room a lot. When he did play he looked like a keeper, a 2-3 who would be a four-year contributor. His loss hurts, especially since Jamal Wilson, who is the only other two guard on the team behind Richmond, broke his foot last week and is expected to be out 6-8 weeks. 

Nikola Malesevic, who barely played last winter as a freshman, will be expected to help out at the two spot even though he is a natural three. He can shoot but does not have the foot speed URI wants in its guards. The Rams have two freshmen who will suit play. The new big kid you refer to is Blake Vedder who is a legitimate 7-3. He is a lefty and is athletic and could be a steal. But that likely is two or three years away. He is barely over 200 pounds and badly needs to gain strength.

Levan Shengalia is a rugged 6-8 forward who will provide muscle but is not expected to play a lot right away. He could play more than expected, though, since Orion Outerbridge, a 6-9 junior who was expected to be one of the key guys, is out for the first semester. He meets NCAA requirements, but not Baron's, so he will miss the first 11 games. With no Mabry or Lockridge, with Wilson hurt and with Outerbridge to miss time, it is way too optimistic to think the team could win 26 games again.

HB: In a league that prides itself on undersized and underskilled big men, what impact do you see having a front court with the likes of Martell and Vedder, who are listed at 7'0 and 7'3 respectively?

PK: The big men will look impressive, but they are more complimentary players than stars. I must say, though, that Martell is one of the wild cards. He has been a surprise as it is, a late signee four years ago who was going to go to Division III. He has come a long way even though he has battled tendonitis through his career. He had surgery to alleviate the problems over the summer and says he feels fine. If he can make another jump, like to 10-12 points and 6-8 rebounds, he could be a major factor in making the Rams contenders again. Those who follow the Rams will be rooting for him. He's a finance major, a Dean's List student and a witty, witty kid to be around. I did a feature on him the other day. Here are some of his quotes:

On losing a summer internship at one of the major brokerage houses:

 ``The guy who I was going to work for told me he just couldn’t do it,’’ Martell related. ``It (the economy) is so bad that he said he had to take a 90 percent pay cut. He even had to let his assistant go. He couldn’t bring me in.’’

On Vedder, who will take his title away as tallest Ram:

``He’s a legitimate 7-3, I can tell you that,’’ Martell said. ``It’s actually great walking into a dining hall now. I can deflect all the attention to him when we walk in together. He’s been a pretty good wing man for me when we meet girls. He’s knows how to work it, just like I do.’’

``He’s just like I was when I got here. He’s a little bit skinny. He’s listed at 230. When I got here, I was about 208. He’s about that. He’s got to put on weight. He’s definitely a very talented player. He’s a lefty, he can shoot and he’s a smart kid. Like me, he’s got some work to do. If he was a finished product he wouldn’t be here.’’

On the team's chances for the season:

``I don’t think anyone can say that we’re not a tournament team. Again this year we continue to be an undervalued commodity,’’ Martell said. ``That’s fine with us. I love being the underdog.’’

HB: With a few matchups against BCS conference opponents, what would you say are the 2-3 must watch games this season?

PK: The Rams were 5-1 against BCS teams last season, the loss to North Carolina in the NIT semis. They play the first game of the season, Nov. 8, at Pitt in the Coaches Vs. Cancer Classic, visit Florida Jan. 3, host Boston College and play their annual game at Providence College.

HB: Best case/worst case scenario for this season?

PK:  Best case: Everyone gets healthy and eligible and the team fniishes in the top three in the A-10.  Worst case: Depth becomes an issue because of the injuries and eligibility issues and the team fades to .500.

The 2nd Annual Atlantic 10 Prognostication

It's that time of year again. Time to put the kids to sleep, slap the wife and kick the dog down the stairs. Conference play is here and as always, it's personal. Whereas the inept, so called "experts" prefer to blindly forecast the conference without a body of work to rely on, we at the B.R. like to let the league simmer a bit before we take a bite. Just as an unexamined life isn't worth living, a prediction without any semblance of consideration is worthless. Or so we'd like to think.

Below are our predictions, an aggregate of four advanced minds. There was little consensus as to where each team will fall in the standings, although we are very confident, cocksure even, that Fordham will finish dead last. We had two first-place votes for Temple, a vote for Dayton and a vote for Chirs Mooney's Richmond squad. As you'd probably expect, the teams that impressed the most in out-of-conference play occupy the first four to five spots of our prognosis. 

Admittedly, the conference season is an opportunity for all fourteen teams to press the reset button and experience a new lease on life. However, at some point you are what your record says you are, so there aren't likely to be too many surprises in conference play. Xavier has won three regular-season A-10 titles in a row, but this appears to be the year, if there ever was one, that a newcomer has a legitimate shot at the title. The top of the league appears to be as strong as we've seen in awhile, the middle of the conference still has that nougaty goodness, and the bottom of the A-10 is just as shameful as you remember.

1. Temple (11-3) RPI: 5 SOS: 3
Temple is going to win the A-14 for several reasons. For starters, they are battle tested. They beat a highly ranked Villanova team and while they got blown out by the top team in the land, Kansas, they beat a tough Seton Hall team and played Georgetown and St. John's tough. Currently, they are #5 in the RPI (as of the writing of this column) and have all their tough games at home (Xavier, Dayton, and Rhode Island). Juan Fernandez and Ryan Brooks are taking care of the scoring while Lavoy Allen is averaging a studly double-double. I see Temple maybe losing 2 games maximum, locking up the 1 seed with about 3 games left in conference play, and cruising to the A-14 tournament title. 

Prediction: A #6 seed in the NCAA tournament. -- Donoher

2. Dayton (11-3) RPI: 29 SOS: 46
You already know this tune. Pretty much where we were expected to be. We've knocked off some pretty good mid-majors who'll likely win their conferences, but we also failed to grab a marquee victory. There were really no huge let down games, outside of the scare from Towson. All-in-all we haven't been diverted from our expected path. No bad losses, no big wins. Kind of leaves us with a blank slate heading into the A-10. Our performance in conference will determine our fate as we didn't do enough in the OOC to distinguish ourselves.

Chris Johnson has stepped up and continued his progress. He's a difficult player to describe as he's our best player, but he does so in a quiet fashion, always in the flow of the game and rarely dominating.  Chris Wright has taken a baby step forward. He's played a bit more under control, has converted free throws with more consistency, and his fouls are down. He's also managed to disappear from multiple big games, is averaging over half a block less a game than last season, and still has shown little refinement in his offensive game.  Luke Fabrizius has improved his game. He's kept us in a handful of games with his clutch three-point shooting, which he's knocking down at a 46% clip. His added weight has allowed him to be more physical and permitted him to pose as an occasional defensive nuisance. Marcus Johnson has fallen down a well and has shown little sign of returning.

Prediction: The Flyers go dancing, bowing out gracefully in the second round. -- Oliver

3. Xavier (8-5) RPI: 43 SOS: 7
In years past, Xavier would have been penciled in at the top of the conference without even a hint of hesitation. Fuck pencil, you could have written X’s name with a permanent marker and not lost a wink of sleep. As the most accomplished program in the conference, the Musketeers were always the effervescent Ralph Furley in a league full of middling Stanley Ropers. This year feels different. It’s not necessarily that the Muskies won’t run away with the A-10 title again, that wouldn’t surprise anyone, but it seems like 3 or 4 other programs have a legitimate shot at grandeur this season (grandeur being a subjective term considering we are talking about a mid-major regular season championship here).   

Just like Xavier, Furley always got it doneBut let’s take a closer look. Xavier’s five losses? They were all against solid competition: Marquette and Baylor (at a neutral site), a royal screw job at Butler, a fifteen point loss at K-State, and a loss in overtime against Wake Forest in Winston-Salem. Not a bad loss to be had. Throw in some decent wins, LSU and Cincinnati, and the Musketeers have not experienced as much self-inflicted damage as some may have assumed. Besides, Xavier owns this league. You almost get the sense that the Musketeers take a deep breath when conference play rolls around, knowing that their toughest battles are behind them. Looking at the A-10 through the prism of a feudal society, the team down south is the lord of the manor and the rest of the squads in the conference are merely serfs.  But just as medieval society eventually crumbled, so shall Xavier, right? Maybe.

Xavier seems to be a team still searching for its identity, trying to correctly arrange all the pieces to the puzzle. They certainly have the horses, they just need to put it all together. In Jordan Crawford, X has a go-to scorer capable of dropping twenty (his average) without breaking a sweat. JC is hitting 45% of his shots, 40% from downtown and 70% from the line. Terrell Holloway’s early-season performance has been encouraging. Although not a great outside shooter, Holloway is making things happen with his penetration, scoring 11 points and dishing out 4 assists per game. His assist-to-turnover ratio (3:1) is good enough for 27th best in the nation. Kenny Frease, while still not living up to the hype, is turning in decent performances (7ppg, 5 rpg, 19 mpg). Jason Love is the guy you want on your side in a knife fight. Love is a double-double waiting to explode, unpacking 10 and 10 each time he enters the court to battle. Throw in 57% shooting from the floor, along with 2.4 blocks per game, and you got yourself a garbage man extraordinaire. Brad Redford is still a deadly shooter (you really don’t want to compare his stats with UD’s Paul Wiliams, it will make you sick) when given an open look, and Mark Lyons and Dante Jackson are solid contributors as well.

So with all of the affirmations, how did Xavier slip to third in our predictions? Blame it on O’Brien. He had Xavier coming in fourth, giving UD the razor-thin nod at second (For the record, Donoher and I had X finishing second, and Ollie had the Musketeers coming in third). Xavier’s depth is certainly a concern, as the bench really only goes eight deep. Like Richmond, I would expect the majority of Xavier’s starters to crack 30 minutes a game once A-10 play begins. The Musketeer offense is probably the best in the conference, and their defense is good enough to compete with every team in the league. Although Xavier was unpredictable in their run-up to conference play, the talent level cannot be denied.

Prediction: If we are considering the Atlantic 10 to be at least a three-bid league this year, there is no way that Xavier gets shut out of the big boy tournament. As usual, the Muskies will make the Dance and likely win a game or two before their road comes to an end. -- Blackburn 

4. Richmond (12-4) RPI: 24 SOS: 44
The Spiders attained arguably the most impressive out-of-conference wins in the A-10, with victories over Missouri, Old Dominion, Mississippi State and Florida. The best backcourt in the conference is off to a decent start as Kevin Anderson and David Gonzalvez are averaging a combined 32 points per game. Justin Harper is following up his performance from last year with another solid effort this season, bringing 10 points and 6 boards in just 23 minutes per game. The big question coming into this season was the play of junior center Dan Geriot. Geriot, a former all-league pick, was coming off a serious knee injury and missed the entire 2008-09 season. Geriot’s numbers at the end of his sophomore year: 15ppg, 6 rpg, 47% from the field, 40% from three and 75% from the line. His line this year is not quite as impressive: 8 ppg, 5 rpg, 38% from the floor, 15% from behind the arc and 63% from the stripe. It’s clear that Geriot has some rust to work off.

Defense has been the key to UR’s early success. The Spiders are giving up just 61 points per game, good enough for 38th best in the nation. The team’s biggest deficiency is clearly its depth. Richmond goes only eight deep, and I expect that their five starters will frequently clock 30+ minutes a game once conference play tips off. Whether or not the wear and tear eventually catches up with Richmond is a story worth paying attention to. Actually, scratch that. Just DVR it and watch if you hear good things.

Geriot would rather fade away than burn outThe conference schedule is favorable, as Richmond plays Xavier, Dayton and Temple only once, with the lone road game in Cincinnati. Although the rest of the BR staff believes that the Spiders will finish outside the top three (Donoher and O’Brien placed them sixth), I have them winning the conference. It may be a overreach, considering that the team is basically relying on its starting five to carry it through league play, but the team is experienced, has a very consistent backcourt, and even at half-speed Geriot is better than most of the big men in the A-10 (Seriously, look it up).

Prediction: If Richmond can line up 10-11 wins in the A-10 and win at least one tournament game, it would be hard to keep the Spiders out of the dance. Given their out-of-conference wins, the argument could be made that a 10/11 win Richmond squad is more worthy of a tournament bid than an 11/12 win Dayton or Xavier squad. Depending on how the rest of the conferences pan out, the battles between Richmond, Dayton and Xavier may turn out to be de facto playoff games for the selection committee. Regardless, if the A-10 puts at least two teams in the Dance, I can’t see how Richmond doesn’t get in. And yes, by supporting Richie so adamantly I realize that I am essentially forgoing the opportunity to hedge my bets. But Dan Geriot is a fucking soldier, and like the girls in the Confederacy's capital, I'm ready to ride him until life-threatening chaffing occurs. -- Blackburn

5. Rhode Island (12-1) RPI: 4 SOS: 30
With a 12-1 non-conference record, Rhode Island is not going to sneak up on anyone. The Rams are going to finish in the top 5 of the league, no question about it. The only question is, can they hang with the big boys? They currently sit 4th in RPI and have some good wins over Providence and Boston College with a tough 2 point loss to VCU sandwiched in between. Keith Cothran has taken over the scoring void that Jimmy Baron left when he finally graduated. Orion Outerbridge is going to get better as the season goes on. Their tough road games, at Xavier, Dayton, and Temple will be 3 losses that the Rams probably won't be able to overcome. However, don't be surprised if the Rams sneak into the top 4 and make a nice little run in the A-14 tournament and possibly become one of the "last four in" come March. 

Prediction: Either a #12 seed in the NCAA or a trip to the NIT. TBD. I'm a pussy, I know. -- Donoher

6. Charlotte (10-3) RPI: 109 SOS: 285
The 49ers had a similar season to the Flyers in that they've noshed on some creampuffs while losing to some formidable competition. They have, however, gone into Louisville and knocked off that white suit wearin', philandering son of a bitch Pitino. But conversely, they've been beaten by two shared opponents, losing to A-10 killer Old Dominion and the soon to be stingless Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. An afterthought coming into the season, they've shown they'll be a player in conference play this year and still have the opportunity for another big OOC win against an undermanned Tennessee team on January 6th. Also of note, Bobby Lutz's upper lip has welcomed back an old friend.

The big-bodied Boston College transfer, Shamari Spears, has lived up to his considerable billing. He's averaging 17 a game as the '9ers go-to offensive weapon, though has been a bit sluggish on the backboards. Sophomore JUCO transfer Derrio Green has surprised, and is second on the team in scoring. He's putting up an efficient 11 a game. Highly touted recruit Chris Braswell has proved to be a force, averaging nearly 9 and 9 a night. After playing 26 minutes a game last season, senior Ian Anderson has been reduced to single digit minutes this season. As expected, his numbers have suffered across the board. The local press had high hopes for redshirt freshman Shamarr Bowden, but up till now he's had plenty of time to chuckle at Lutz's 'stache and ponder growing his own, as he's playing little more than 10 minutes a game. When given the chance, though, he could make even Pop-a-Shot blush. In the season opener against UNC Ashville, he hit 6-of-11 threes for 21 points in 11 minutes. Against Louisville, he let twelve go from 3 point range, hitting on five in  just 13 minutes of play. It should be noted, though, that on the season he's shooting 33% from the field and only 31% from distance. I'll allow you to fill in the blanks.

Prediction: The 49ers should prepare to deal with the glitz and glamour that comes with a College Basketball Invitational tournament selection. -- Oliver

7. Duquesne (8-5) RPI: 89 SOS: 117
They've knocked off Iowa and took Pittsburgh to overtime, but they've also taken losses to Western Carolina and IUPUI. They were absolutely drubbed by West Virginia 68-39 in a game where they shot 32% from the field. The Dukes also lost at common opponent Old Dominion by a score of 63-54. They've stumbled a few times and also failed to get a win that'll turn heads on Selection Sunday. It's time to make hay for the Dukes. With potential star Melquan Bolding out for much of the OOC and Ron Everhart at the helm, it's certainly too soon to count Duquesne out.

Bolding: Ollie thinks you're a game changerDespite breaking his wrist in season opener, Melquan Bolding still went for 25. He's been out ever since, but the mega-recruit could change the landscape of the A-10 upon his return. He's having his wrist reexamined January 5th. Bill Clark leads the team in scoring and is second in rebounding, but his shooting percentages have taken a considerable dip. Damian Saunders has become a beast, upping his rebounding average by over 5 boards a game. He's clearing 12.9 boards a game while adding over 3.5 blocks and nearly 3 steals. He's doing all this while shooting 53% from the field. Eric Evans hasn't taken the step forward that most expected, primarily due to his shooting percentages dropping across the board. Last season's three point marksman, Jason Duty, seems to have misplaced his scope. Despite his minutes being up nearly a third, he's averaging less points and shooting an unmarksmanlike 29% from distance.

Prediction: Duquesne fans looking to relive past glories will be happy, as this year's team will have an opportunity to follow in the footsteps of the '55 Dukes by bringing home an NIT title. -- Oliver

8. George Washington (10-3) RPI: 127 SOS: 291
Is this George Washington fighting to save Karl Hobbs' job or just the byproduct of an easy early season schedule? Well, lets take a look at their quality wins: a beating of George Mason at home and UNC Wilmington on the road. Not exactly putting the fear into an out of wedlock child, which is of course the worst kind of fear. Like I said in my preseason Q&A, Damian Hollis is running this squad the way he sees fit and so far it's worked. He leads the team in points (15 ppg) and rebounds (5 rpg), but his supporting cast is going to be his downfall in conference play. I expect these guys to hit a wall early, if they can escape the Bonnies to start conference play they won't have another win on their schedule until Fordham in mid February.

Prediction: Karl Hobbs loses his job and many players are sent back to their home countries to fight in civil wars. -- O'Brien

9. Saint Louis (9-5) RPI: 110 SOS: 71
Finishing a good, but not great, 9-5 in an "on-paper, tough" non-conference schedule, Rick Majerus' squad is hoping to change their luck. Don't bank on it. Saint Louis will be fighting with the bottom feeders of the conference and will barely finish in the top 10.  The Billikens RPI is currently at 110, and they hope to move up. While 9-5 is not BAD, it really puts SLU behind the 8-ball since they, as we all know, are not a BCS team.  The good news?  They have the best home schedule of any A-14 team and host Richmond, Dayton, X, Temple, and URI. The bad news? They just aren't that good.  They might win one or even two of those games (beware Flyer fans!), but all in all, they are a two man team with not much else. 

Prediction: Welcome to the NIT. -- Donoher

10. La Salle (7-6) RPI: 124 SOS: 96
I know I had high expectations for the good Doctor and his Explorers coming into this year, and while that hasn't translated into an impeccable win total after their non-conference schedule, they have shown signs of being a competent and talented basketball team. La Salle doesn't have a quality win yet (Davidson doesn't count anymore), and they've gotten smoked by the likes of Oklahoma State, Villanova, Kansas and South Carolina, but Aaric Murray (10 ppg, 6 rpg, 2.4 bpg) is getting better every time he steps on the court. With Murray's continued improvement, and Rodney Green's ability to score in so many ways, look for La Salle to flip a few upsets come conference time. When they play UD in February, expect a massive coronary.

Prediction: Too bad Green doesn't have another year of eligibility, the Doctor will be stealing kidneys again by early March. No postseason for the Explorers. -- O'Brien

11. UMass (5-7) RPI: 189 SOS: 106Lou could lace them up right now and go for 15 and 12
One thing the four of us all agreed on was that UMass will be fighting to stay out of the bottom two.  A 6-7 non-conference record and a 189 RPI are mixed in with a miracle win against Memphis. The Minutemen just don't have "it" this year. So much so, that we did not even do a season preview for them. That and we could not find any blogger that "covered" this team. Ricky Harris and Anthony "Tony" Gurley = good.  Rest of the team = BAD.  Add those equations to road games at Dayton, Richmond, and Temple and you have a mixture of a losing non-conference, conference, and overall season. I don't think UMass will come close to the bottom two (that's Fordham and St. Bonaventure's business), but unless Marcus Camby and Lou Roe come back along with Carmelo Traveiso, this team is a bust. 

Prediction: No post season whatsoever. -- Donoher

12. St. Joseph's (4-8) RPI: 122 SOS: 6
Back in March of 2004 the Hawks were just eight seconds, and a John Lucas desperation three, away from the Final Four. Now? SJU is taking pink-sockings from the likes of Siena, Princeton, DePaul and Rider. This is not the way most on Hawk Hill envisioned christening the newly renovated Fieldhouse. Certainly, most St. Joe’s fans expected to take a step back after the departure of Ahmad Nivins but the lack of ability, especially on the defensive end, has been jarring.

That being said, the Hawks do feature a respectable backcourt. Senior guards Darrin Govens and Garrett Williamson lead the team in scoring with 12 and 11 points per game respectively. Idris Hilliard (10 ppg, 5 rpg) and Todd O’Brien (4 ppg, 6 rpg), who would be considered role players on most teams in the conference, are asked to carry the load in the frontcourt. The silver lining this year has been the play of freshman guard Carl Jones, who enters conference play averaging just over ten points a game in 21 minutes of play. The rest of the rosters is chock full of donkeys and numskulls.

As an undersized team that will likely finish last in rebounding, the Hawks figure to give up a lot of points and struggle to keep up offensively. This is not a formula for success. After finishing eighth in league last season, posting a 9-7 record, and losing its best player, you have to assume that SJU will slip even further down the table this year. Twelve in the A-10 seems about right. Not to get ahead of ourselves, but things may actually get worse for the Hawks in 2010-11, as they will lose Govens and Williamson to graduation in March. Will the sheen eventually wear off of Phil Martelli?

Prediction: Sure, the Hawk will never die. But after this season he will probably wish he had to courage to stick the barrel of a shotgun in his mouth. No postseason on City Avenue. -- Blackburn  

13. St. Bonaventure (6-6) RPI: 142 SOS: 122
I will say this about the Bonnies, they are not on probation. That’s the good news. Their best win according to the infallible RPI machine was against the mighty Griffins of Canisius College (#184). That’s the bad news. With not a lot of depth or offensive firepower, StBU was the obvious choice for the thirteen slot. Although St. Bonaventure plays most of the league’s top dogs at home (Dayton, Rhode Island, Richmond and Temple come to the Reilly Center), it’s unlikely to win many games over the next three months.  

Let’s get an email campaign started to get Andrew Nicholson, the Bonnies’ Canadian Centaur, to consider leaving the dreariness of Olean, New York. With two years of eligibility left, Nicholson may be better served by spending his best days in the cheerless ‘burg of Dayton, Ohio. Think of BG’s recruiting pitch, “Yes, Dayton may be a downtrodden, festering lesion of a city, but seriously, it can’t be any worse than Olean. Plus, check that shit out. That there is our pride and joy, Smashburger. You can walk up to the counter and get a tasty burger for seven bucks, then walk behind the dumpsters and get a handjob for five.” Check and mate. Nicholson is averaging a hearty 16 and 7 on the year, shooting a freakish 63% from the field. If you took an inventory of unheralded college basketball players you have too much time on your hands, and Nicholson would be near the top of that list. Chris Matthews, who had a career day against the Flyers last season, is back and just as average as he was last yearFare thee well, sweet prince. Matthews is scoring around eleven points a game, mostly on shots from the perimeter. Jonathan Hall is St. Bonaventure’s second leading scorer (12 ppg) and rebounder (5 rpg). You just know that Hall, a senior from Miami, can’t wait to get the fuck out of dodge.

Prediction: If St. Bonnie decided to quit on the season again, could you really blame them? Would anyone even notice? -- Blackburn

14. Fordham (2-10) RPI: 314 SOS: 230
To tell you the truth, I don't know what to tell you about Fordham. They are one of the youngest teams in college basketball, being lead by a first-time coach who took over midseason, and was abandoned by its best player and only hope for a bright future in Jio Fontan. Blackburn asked me for any surprises, and the only surprise is that they won two games so far. While Fordham might not even win a game in conference play, keep an eye on Chris Gaston who, as a freshman, is putting up a solid 18 and 10 a night.

Prediction: Relegation. -- O'Brien

Fuel to the Fire

As expected, your U o' D Flyers were named preseason favorites to win the Atlantic 10. Doog Harris breaks it down:

The University of Dayton men’s basketball team was picked to finish first in the Atlantic 10 in a poll of coaches and media Thursday.

Junior forward Chris Wright was named preseason first-team all-league, while senior guard Marcus Johnson was picked second-team all-conference. Senior guard London Warren made the all-defensive team.

The Flyers return 10 of their top 11 scorers from a 27-8 team. They received 33 of the 57 first-place votes.

Xavier, the league’s three-time defending champion which also finished 27-8 last year, received 18 first-place votes and placed second in the preseason poll.

Richmond was picked third and La Salle fourth. Temple and Duquesne were tied for fifth, followed by Charlotte, Rhode Island, UMass, Saint Joseph’s, St. Bonaventure, Saint Louis, George Washington and Fordham.

Other first-team all-league picks were Temple’s Lavoy Allen, Richmond’s Kevin Anderson, La Salle’s Rodney Green and UMass’ Ricky Harris. The others on the second team were Richmond’s David Gonzalvez, Charlotte’s DiJuan Harris, St. Bonaventure’s Andrew Nicholson and Duquesne’s Damian Saunders.

The third team included Duquesne’s Bill Clark, Rhode Island’s Keith Cothran, Xavier’s Jordan Crawford, Richmond’s Dan Geriot and Saint Louis’ Kwamain Mitchell.

If I told you that La Salle would ever get first-place votes in a preseason poll you would probably insist that the state perform a vasectomy on me so I could never pass on my spoiled seed. But, the Explorers did just that, receiving two first-place votes. Richmond garnered four votes, and our warlords to the south got eighteen. UD has become Ice-T in "Surviving the Game," the rest of the conference is Rutger Hauer and Gary Busey. Go forth and spread the word.

Temple University: Local Homicide Rate Down 3.5%!

Just when you thought the preview series of teams you can't name more than 2 players on was over, here we go again. Much like the Fresh Prince, Temple University is from North Philadelphia (born and raised) and hasn't let a couple of guys who are up to no good (4 on campus shootings since 2008) get in its way of living out max and relaxing all cool. The defending two time A-10 Tournament Champs will take the floor I just wanted to include this picture because I thought it would appeal to our target demographic.with a different looking line up this season. Only the last vestiges of John Chaney's recruits will suit up for Fran Dunphy who has had an extremely successful three years replacing the Temple legend. Dunphy will certainly have his coaching talents tested this season in search of his third NCAA berth in a row, as he lost 50% of his scoring from last season to graduation.

Joining us today to discuss the upcoming season is the proprietor of The Owl's Nest, Owlified. Owlified covers everything relevant in Temple athletics, which pretty much only includes football and basketball, and is confirmed to be the only person who knows more about Temple than Bill Cosby, without the creepiness. Owl (as I call him) is one of the rare beacons of talent in the barren world of blogging and you can follow him on twitter, subscribe to him on YouTube, or catch him on ESfrickinPN. The Blackburn Review has enough problems with grammar and this jerk is getting published on ESPN. Anyway, onto the questions...

O'B: I'm not going to lie to you, after Chaney left 4 years ago I was sure that Temple would go off in the sunset just like Bill Cosby did in 1995. I was indeed right, but only for one year. In the past two seasons Temple has won 43 games, won two A10 championships, and enjoyed an upset of then 8th ranked Tennessee. If you could only thank one person for your success of this team, is it Fran Dunphy for coaching these guys or John Chaney for recruiting them?It only takes this asshole 2 licks to get to the center of a tootsie roll pop.

Owlified: I'd attribute Temple's recent success to Coach Dunphy, who is definitely deserving a job well done. He entered the coaching position with what some might say were Chaney's "leftovers", and utilized them to their best abilities. During his time at Temple, Coach Chaney had always been a great recruiter, and left Dunph with two of the Owls' best players arguably ever. I believe though that the coaching has more of an effect on the player's talent, than he does himself.

O'B:Temple has taken a significant hit from graduation, losing 7-foot center Sergio Olmos, Semaj Inge, and He Who Shall Not Be Named. I'm sorry but I can't say it out loud, it just validates all the ulcers he's given me. With those three out the door, do you consider this a rebuilding year? How realistic are you expectations for a three-peat?

Owlified: To an extent, every year since Coach Dunphy's arrival has been a rebuilding year. This season we will get a taste of what coach has turned this program into so far, with the entire roster built of his recruiting. However, it will not be easy replacing 3 starters. To be honest, a situation like this is very difficult to predict post season chances until everything unfolds. Someone has got to fill those shoes.

O'B: Lavoy Allen is now the man at Temple University. His 14 double-doubles last season established We should rename Lavoy Allen "Easter" just to keep the theme of ruining Catholic Holidays going.that he was a premier post player in this conference. Yet, this season could be a different story, without a certain at will scorer on the perimeter streching defenses. Will the likes of Ryan Brooks and Juan Fernandez have enough firepower to keep the double teams off of Allen? 

Owlified: Ryan Brooks last year showed that he is a proven scorer, along with being an excellent defender. He has played under the wings of Mark Tyndale and Dionte Christmas (sorry, had to say it!).  I'd expect him, along with Lavoy Allen to serve as two of the Owls main threats. Juan Fernandez now has a year under his belt playing American ball, and I'd expect to see even more out of the rising star. Ramone Moore will also be returning, after sitting out most of the season getting academics straight. I believe that he will also play a large role in Temple's success.

O'B: How important will Juan Fernandez and his sexy Argentinian blood be to your team this year? Looking at your roster it seems like his development will be essential to your success on the court. Who else do you need to step up to content for another title? Who should we be watching for as a possible breakout player?

Owlified: Temple now has a true point guard, plain and simple. Fernandez sees the wide open floor, and hits the open man. He's also not afraid to make plays himself. As I mentioned in the previous question, though, players like Lavoy Allen and Ryan Brooks (the two remaining starters) will need to up their games drastically. As for a breakout player, I'd go with Ramone Moore. In his little time playing last year, the redshirt freshman proved he could make things happen with his tremendous play against Clemson. He's an exciting player to watch, and could potentially be that breakout player?

O'B: With all of his success, Chaney is unfortunately going to be remembered for trying to attack John Calipari and for sending in a goon to physically assault a St. Joe's player, which resulted in Chaney being suspended for the rest of the year. (Jon Bryant, the SJU player, suffered a fractured arm as a result).  Given his checkered history, how does the average Temple fan feel about Chaney's legacy?

Owlified: If you ask any Temple fan, Coach Chaney will go down as one of TU's greatest coaches ever (along with Harry Litwack). Coach ran a clean and proud program, which speaks louder than both of those incidents. Coach emphasized the importance of education, and growing up as good individuals. Basketball-wise, his history includes numerous trips to the Final Four, Elite 8, Sweet 16, and also #1 rankings in the country. (Also, any Temple fan would agree that Jon Bryant faked his fractured arm, as he was spotted without his brace fulling functioning with it on the sideline.)

O'B: Now for a prediction that we will unfairly hold against you come February. How does the Temple team of 09-10 compare to the past two championship teams and more importantly, how do you think they finish this year?

Owlified: Tough question. To be quite honest, I would say that last year's squad was more talented, and more experienced than this upcoming year's. That doesn't mean, however, that this team cannot get the job done. I see our team being very competitive in this difficult schedule we have, and a few victories against the big name teams will give us an idea as to the identity of this program. Prediction: Owls are once again in the position where they need to win the A-10, or they're done (but who knows?).

Thanks for the insight Owlified, enjoy getting the Fresh Prince theme song out of your head.

Xavier University: The Model Citizen

The dreaded Xavier Musketeers.  Where the Dayton Flyers want to go and what they should strive to be.  Last year, when writing the Five for Flying: Why We Hate Xavier post, we got a some shit for people saying our hatred was not at lethal levels.  Like both Tom and I said in the post, we don't hate Xavier, we are simply jealous of their success.  Dayton and Xavier are pretty much identical schools.  Both lack a good campus area, almost the same number of students, there are a lot of poor people meandering around the outskirts of campus, the bar scene is lackluster except for one bar, and the hot girl to ugly girl ratio is not the best at both schools.  However, when it comes to basketball, Xavier beats Dayton like a red headed step child.  Which reminds me of my intramural basketball team senior year.  We were called, "The Step-dads" because we beat you and you hate us.  Anyway, don't let ESPN/Jeff Sagarin's new All-Time Rankings fool you.  Dayton may rank better than Xavier all-time, but who cares about the 1950's and 1960's?  Maybe Jim Nabors, whoever the fuck that is, but not us.  We care about NOW, and NOW Xavier is the better program. While I think that this is the year Dayton overtakes Xavier in terms of A-14 supremacy, Xavier is not going to go quietly into the night.  I had the opportunity to talk to Patrick of the Musketeer Blogsophere about the upcoming season, Sean Miller's exit, Kenneth M. Frease, and if Xavier really considers Dayton as a rival.

DD: In the words of my man Neil Young, "out of the blue and into the black," Sean Miller bolted for Arizona, leaving behind a stunned fanbase.  Xavier is used to coaches jilting them, but this one seemed like a really low blow.  How is Chris Mack adjusting to life as a head coach?  It was a no brain hire, considering Mack has been as Xavier almost his entire adult life, but do you wish that Xavier looked elsewhere for their hire?

Patrick: From the outside looking in, Chris Mack appears to be settling in very well.  It certainly helps that he grew up in Cincy as a Xavier fan before attending St. Xavier HS and then transferring to Xavier for his junior and senior years after playing for Evansville.  All signs (so far) point to there being about as smooth a transition as a Xavier fan could hope for, especially after the way Sean Miller left and the subsequent reactions of fans, administration, and players alike.  In fact, here is a rundown of the day's events on a Xavier message board.  Mack has hired what appears to be a great staff, including fellow X alum Pat Kelsey.  Plus, great recruits have already started to commit.

As far as looking for other replacements, Mike Bobinski (the AD) is probably the most trusted man in the Xavier world and he has a 100% approval rating from the Muskie faithful.  He did take his time to hire Mack so I can only imagine he looked at, and interviewed, many candidates.  In my mind, Mack was always going to be the leader in the clubhouse.

DD: Well let's talk about some of those freshmen.  Who are some of the new faces that will surely haunt my dreams for the next few years?

Patrick: We only have one true newcomer and his name is Jeff Robinson.  However, we will have three freshmen on the roster.  Mark Lyons will get a lot of minutes in the back court.  Brian Walsh saw minimal playing time before suffering a hand injury and played just under the maximum amount of allowed minutes to still be granted a redshirt.  He is a mix between a shooting guard/small forward and I would imagine his playing time will still be sporadic.  He should be able to make his mark on the team.  As for Robinson, he is 6'9" forward and I frankly don't know much about him.  He will probably still see a decent chunk of playing time because the front court depth could be an issue, especially if foul trouble is to ever rear its ugly head.

DD: Some think Derrick Brown leaving Xavier a year early was a bad choice and I am sure he will be missed.  Yet, something tells me that this team will be OK.  Who has impressed you most this summer in workouts and league games?

Patrick: Derrick leaving tuCoach? Yes. Alien? Maybe.rned out to be a great choice from him as he was drafted in 2nd round, now has a 2 year contract with the Bobcats, and is being coached by Larry Brown.  Miller leaving clearly had a huge impact on Derrick eventually leaving for the NBA.  Obviously, there is no ill will from Xavier fans in regards to Derrick, especially if one factors in that he was on campus for four years and graduated this past May. 

The main buzz has come from Jordan Crawford (for obvious reasons) and the aforementioned Mark Lyons.  We should have plenty of options in the back court with Lyons, Holloway, Redford, Jackson and Crawford all getting big minutes.  By all accounts, Lyons is a great perimeter defender and will challenge Terrell for the starting point guard spot.

DD: Kenny Frease did not impress me that much last year. However, he was only a freshman and maybe not have even grown into his own body.  I think this year's team will revolve around him and the Lebron killer, Jordan Crawford.  Who do you think will be the leader of this team?

Patrick: Dante Jackson and Jason Love will be the leaders of this team.  I don't remember who said it, but one of the players last year said it's a lock Dante will be a coach someday.  Jason Love epitomizes what hard work can do for a player.  He wasn't highly recruited, played very little his freshman year, and made himself into a key contributor the past two years.

I think I speak for all Xavier fans when I say that we are expecting a pretty marked improvement from Kenny this year.  We didn't need him to be great last year because of the depth in the front court last year, but that depth won't be there this year.  All in all, I wasn't too upset with him last year.  He's still learning how to use his body and had to get used to not going up against high school players.  And it was largely known that Jordan Crawford was the best player on the team last year and will be the main threat on the court this year, but I still expect a balanced scoring sheet for the upcoming season.

DD: Xavier and Gonzaga recently signed a deal to play a home/away series.  In my mind, Xavier and Gonzaga have proven themselves every March and considering them "mid majors" is somewhat of an insult.  What are your thoughts on this "label?" Do you consider it an insult or something that gives Xavier a chip on their shoulder so that come March, they can stick it to the bigger schools?

Patrick: Well, that term you speak of is largely taboo for the majority of Xavier fans.  And it should be for Dayton fans as well.  It's one of the few things we should find common ground in with no problem at all because it simply has negative connotations.  College basketball is my favorite sport and it drives me nuts how much college football has infiltrated the culture of basketball with the BCS talk.  It also drives me insane how it's an implied fact that the regular season doesn't matter at all in college basketball, but I suppose that's a topic for another day.

Just because of the size of Xavier and our subsequent small fan base, I think it's safe to say we'll always have a bit of a chip on our shoulders when it comes to beating big state schools.  I thought our best win last year was going down to Baton Rouge and defeating LSU in a sold out gym.  And besides, players are always playing the "No one believed in us card."  We may as well embrace it.

DD: I try not to associate with Xavier grads, but I do know a few that went to school there.  In their mind, Xavier's main, and possibly only, rival is UC.  What are your thoughts on the "rivalry" between Dayton and Xavier.  While the majority of Dayton fans loathe everything Xavier, we at the Blackburn Review think that Xavier is what Dayton can strive for and should be. Considering Dayton has not beaten Xavier in Cincinnati in almost 30 years, it's hard to call this series a rivalry.  What, if anything, can UD/XU do to make this matchup more nationally prominent?

Patrick: Well, it's definitely a big rivalry.  And because most rivalries are regional in nature, especially with college sports, it will always be nearly impossible to make this game nationally relevant.  By definition, most rivalries are not going to have a ton of national hype.  After living in Ohio for four years, I came to realize all Ohio State fans think the world stops for the OSU vs Michigan football game.  But I would surmise most Auburn and Alabama fans would say they have the best rivalry.  Just like ESPN would like for us to believe all the world stops for Duke and UNC. Well, I know UK and Louisville take umbrage with that sentiment.  I could go and on.  Dayton and Xavier hate each other because of the proximity of the schools and the enormous amount of pride each school takes in their basketball teams.  As for that home winning streak we have over UD, I mean eventually, it has got to end right?  Clearly I don't want it to, but law of averages would dictate it will someday.  Don't worry though, I hate Dayton.  Almost as much as UC...ALMOST.

DD: Fair enough.  Last question and then we're done.  Let's hear a prediction for Xavier's place in the Atlantic 14.

Patrick: You can't really expect me to pick Dayton to win the A-14 title can you?  I say we get our 4th straight A-14 title.  For me, winning the regular season A-14 title should be the goal from the outset of every season.  Post-season berths will follow conference success and it is also the foundation of future success for seasons to come.

Thanks to Patrick for taking the time to talk to me.  While Dayton fans can bicker back and forth with Xavier fans, I think we all can agree that having Xavier around (even if they do beat up on us at least once a year) is good for not only Dayton's SOS, but the entire conference's in general.  However, this is the year that Dayton beats Xavier in Cinc...HA!  I couldn't even finish that sentence without laughing.

Saint Joseph's University: Taking Two Steps Back

The only Philadelphia landmarks worth visitingAs an example of how precarious the direction of a college basketball program can be imagine yourself as a St. Joe's fan last season.  Just five years removed from an Elite Eight appearance, the Hawks were relegated to relying upon a 6'8" power-forward who was held in check by Kurt Huelsman. SJU's 08-09 team was essentially a study on erratic behavior. The Hawks won seven of their first eight conference games, giving every indication that they would be one of the teams to beat in the Atlantic 10. However, losing six of their last eight all but sealed their fate as a pretender. For as good as a player Ahmad Nivins was, he was unable to consistently provide the Hawks with enough scoring to keep them in games down the stretch.  Tasheed Carr was an effective second option, he carried the team during the last month of the season, yet the Hawks were probably one additional scoring option away from a twenty win season.

This year marks an important step in the St. Joseph's program. Phil Martelli and Co. will be hosting visitors in the newly renovated Hagan Arena, formerly the Alumni Memorial Fieldhouse. Notwithstanding that development, SJU will be fielding a team looking for an identity.  The Hawks, who finished 10th in the league in scoring, will likely struggle to score points yet again.  I interviewed Chad Adlehardt, of Hawk Hoop Club fame, to gain a clearer perspective on what kind of shit-storm UD fans can expect when the Flyers visit Hagan Arena later this year.  We discussed how severe Ahmad Nivins' departure will effect the team, the ins and outs of their new digs, if St. Joe's fans will be forced to assassinate Phil Martelli at some point, and whether or not the Hawks can ever reach the heights of the 2003-04 team.

TB: Last year was a down year for Phil Martelli's program.  The Hawks ended the 2008-09 season with a disappointing 17-15 record, ending up tied for fifth in the conference.  What held last year's team back?

CA: Last year the Hawks lacked a true second and third scorer.  With the departures of Pat Calathes and Rob Ferguson (44% of the '07-08 team points), too much of the offensive load was forced upon on A10 POY Ahmad Nivins.  He certainly delivered, but no other players were able to consistently help with the scoring.  Some say it was a lack of a true point guard, with 5th-year Senior Tasheed Carr being more of a scorer than being known to have a great handle or make good decisions with the ball.  Two players who some thought would the step up and help carry the burden, juniors Garrett Williamson and Darrin Govens, either feared taking big shots or struggled to make shots consistently.  Defenses began collapsing on Nivins, and with very few (if any) playmakers on the team, a stagnant offense was born.  Also, a lack of depth might have played into the Hawks' demise at the end of the season.  Going only 6 or 7 players deep in the rotation seemed like it really took a toll on the team.

TB: Replacing Atlantic-10 player of the year Ahmad Nivins is going to be next to impossible. Nivins led the conference in double-doubles (22), rebounding (11.8 rpg), and field goal percentage (61.2%). So, who gets the unenviable task of filling his shoes this year?

CA: I think it's pretty safe to say that it will take more than one player to collectively fill Nivins' large shoes.  Sophomore Todd O'Brien, a Bucknell transfer, will be asked to start at Nivins' spot, but expectations for him are to be a steady defender and rebounder.  To help replace the scoring that Nivins' provided, senior shooting guard Darrin Govens will have another opportunity to be a big part of the offense.  However, Phil Martelli has openly questioned Govens' commitment to working hard to become a better basketball player, which makes me skeptical on him having a breakout season.  Junior power-forward Idris Hilliard is another player who will probably be asked to score more, but most of his points will probably come from rebounds as he will have the responsibility of grabbing some of Nivins' 12 rebounds per game.  Sophomore shooting-guard Chris Prescott, who had a relatively quiet freshman season, might have the best skillset to be this season's breakout player while coming off the bench.  Power-forward Bryant Irwin has also worked hard this offseason and has to contribute for the Hawks to be successful.

TB: The Hawks return three starters from last year's squad. Senior guards Darrin Govens (12.5 ppg) and Garrett Williamson (6.1 ppg) return to pace the backcourt, and forward Idris Hilliard (9.2 ppg, 5.5 rpg) looks to build upon his impressive sophomore season. We just discussed replacing Nivins, so who fills the void left by the departure of Tasheed Carr?Govens: SJU's only hope

CA: If last year's team was predictable and plodding, this year's team looks to be sporadic and frenetic.  And that is because it will likely have two very quick freshmen point guards earning most of Tasheed Carr's minutes: Justin Crosgile (DePaul Catholic HS, NJ) and Carl "Tay" Jones (Garfield Heights HS, OH).  Both are 6 feet tall or under.  Crosgile is physically the stronger of the two, but both can score and create shots for their teammates and had great success in highschool.  It is being reported that Crosgile has injured his hand and will likely miss some time (6-8 weeks), which leaves Tay Jones with a big opportunity to earn the starting PG spot.  He certainly can score the ball, but will Jones and his somewhat diminutive frame be able to defend the bigger guards he will be faced against, along with running an offense that needs to find an identity? Phil Martelli has also stated that Darrin Govens will likely see some time at the point guard slot this season, the position he was recruited to play but never really showed the court vision and ball handling skills to excel at this level.

TB: Let's talk about this year's incoming freshman.  Who will contribute right away?

CA:  In addition to the two incoming point guards (Crosgile and Jones), the other incoming freshman this season is 6'8"/240lbs power-forward Carl Baptiste (North Hunterdon HS, NJ).  When he was signed, it came out of nowhere to many Hawks fans, as his recruitment was under the radar and so was his name.  He has apparently impressed many at summer camps, and works very hard in the weight room. Although a bigger body, Baptiste is pretty athletic and can shoot the ball from deep. He will likely be asked upon to play backup minutes at the PF and C positions this year.  Immediate impact?  Unlikely.  Contributing?  Likely.

TB: You are probably dying to talk about Hagan Arena, the end result of the renovation and expansion of the old Fieldhouse. During last year's conference predictions, I described the atmosphere as "like the student body itself: loud, obnoxious and full of sweaty Italians." Needless to say, playing in the Palestra last season probably took away some of the home-court advantage the Hawks routinely enjoyed while playing on campus. So go ahead, tell me a little bit about Hagan Arena. I assume that Phil Martelli will no longer need to duck to get into his office?

CA: The Palestra is a great place to watch basketball games, but Hawks fans couldn't be more excited about returning to an on-campus home court (not that Dayton ever plays out here anyway--well, finally this season!). I haven't seen the new arena firsthand yet, but here is a response from a Hawks fan who has:

"You are right, Phil will no longer need to duck to get into his office. As a matter of fact, neither will any of the recruits Phil meets with. Additionally, Martelli has his own office now. He no longer shares space with his assistants. One of the many upgrades on Hawk Hill is the Ramsay Basketball Center, named for Hall of Fame and legendary Saint Joseph's coach Dr. Jack Ramsay, who started his long lineage of famous coaches and garnering the nickname for SJU as the cradle of coaches: (Jack Ramsay '49, Jum Lynam '63, Matt Guokas '67, Paul Westhead '61, Jack McKinney '57, George Senesky '43, and Jim O'Brien '74--all have coached in the NBA.)

The new 20,000 square foot Ramsay Center houses the SJU men's and women's basketball programs as well as the Athletic Communications Office and the Thomas J. Wynne Hall of Fame room. New locker rooms, player's lounges, study spaces and video capabilities are a dramatic upgrade over the former Fieldhouse facilities. This will be the first thing the visiting Dayton Flyers will notice.  Hagan Arena, or more formerly the Michael J. Hagan Arena, will have the same old school feel of the Fieldhouse, but will be brand-spanking new, includFill with Italians, add heat, let it simmering new lighting, new seats (and more of them), new concessions, and a wrap-around concourse, to name but a few of the improvements. When viewed from the floor, the new two-tiered student section is right on top of the players. For the visiting Flyers, the atmosphere they will experience will include loud, boisterous, Hawk supporting Irish, Germans, Poles and Italians. All Hawk students come with or without sweat. The 2009-10 season will see Saint Joseph's celebrating the 100th year of Hawk basketball and new, old-school arena. It will be a new era, with the same Hawk passion. It will quite the experience."

TB: Martelli has turned down overtures from other programs over the years, remaining loyal to SJU. This has obviously allowed Martelli to buy a great deal of patience from the St. Joe fan base.  From your point of view, what would it take for Martelli and SJU to part ways?

CA: Phil Martelli has said in the past the only way he would leave Hawk Hill is if a top program with a serious chance of winning a National Championship came calling. I don't see that situation coming up anytime soon. Martelli is signed through at least 2016 (the last time I checked) and loves it at Hawk Hill (his "dream job" growing up).  He is largely responsible for the renovation of the Alumni Memorial Fieldhouse into the Hagan Arena (along with Mr. Hagan and others). And, the incoming and 2010 recruiting classes look promising.  Martelli sees this situation as a great opportunity to rise the program back to the standard where no postseason (NCAA) equals no success.

TB: In 2003-04, SJU went undefeated in the regular season and earned a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, eventually bowing out to Oklahoma State in the regional final. Is the goal for the program to reach those heights again, or was that season merely an apparition, an instance where everything fell into place?

A coach with personality, must be nice

CA: The goal of the program is certainly to reach the postseason on a relatively consistent basis. Having the success that this program had with the limited resources it had in 2003-04 might have been an aberration (I think that is the word you were looking for?).  But, heading into this "new era" of Hawks hoops, excuses for not making tournaments will not be as tolerated by the coaches, players, or fans.  The bar has been raised and expectations for the program to once again make a few deep tournament runs, let alone make the tournament on a fairly consistent basis, will slowly develop these next few seasons.

TB: What are the expectations for this year's team? Where do they finish in the Atlantic-10?

CA: This season looks to be a .500 record, although with so many questions including a totally different offensive system than last year ("feeding Ahmad the ball"), it is difficult to predict especially without having seen the three freshmen and Todd O'Brien play.  To help offset the losses of Nivins and Carr, the out of conference schedule does not include too many tournament caliber teams. OOC home games are against Drexel, Holy Cross, Villanova, Lehigh, Princeton, and Towson; road games are at Rider, Cornell, Minnesota, Siena; and, neutral games are against Boston College and three additional opponents in the Virgin Islands, and Penn.  The top of the A10 looks to be Xavier and Dayton, followed by a lot of confusion, which makes me say the Hawks can realistically finish anywhere from 5-12 (I will guess 8th).  However no matter what place they finish, The Hawk Will Never Die!

University of Rhode Island: North (and East) of New York City

I was on a road trip down to Washington, D.C. a few weeks ago with some friends when one of them asked, "When do we pass Rhode Island?"  For the next twenty minutes a vicious debate broke out between the members of the car over whether Rhode Island was north or south of New York City.  As Lincoln and Douglas spun like dreidels in their graves (Happy Yom Kippur!), I enlightened my friend, who is a middle school teacher, that Rhode Island was in fact north of NYC and we would not be passing it enroute to DC.  In the end he finally admitted defeat, but he had that same look in his eye that Germany had in 1920.  He was beaten this time, but he would be back.

Jim Baron Sr., the white hair on top says wisdom, the brown mustace says vigor!The Rams of Rhode Island finished last season with similar fashion.  In a dog fight for their integrity, they exceeded expectations and lasted a lot longer than we predicted.  The NCAA Tournament is what they wanted, the NIT is what they got.  As we look ahead, gone is Jimmy Barron Jr., a true warlord from three point range and the team's leader, as well as Kahiem Seawright, whom Dayton fans will remember spitting in the face of Kurt Huelsman's intangibles last season.  In are some interesting freshmen and the unleashing of Mr. Delroy James into a full time starting slot.  Coach Jim Baron Sr. has taken mediocre talent to the promised land before, but will he have enough to eclipse last seasons NIT appearence?

Joining us today to shower us with actual insight is a real, professional writer.  I don't know why he agreed to be interviewed by a low level amateur, but I assume he already regrets it.  Mr. Paul Kenyon is a writer for the Providence Journal and follows the Rams so closely he's often mistaken for one of Jim Baron's kids.  Mr. Kenyon's going to be walking us through the tempered expectations that come with the 2009-10 Rhode Island Rams, the nightclub industry's influence on Jim Baron's contract, and URI's new squeky clean reputation.
 
O'B: At this time last year URI was expected to be prepared to roll over during A10 play and instead, URI made a valiant run at an at large bid to the NCAA Tournament last year, only to fall short and finish tied for second in the A-14 regular season.  The Rams have won 63 games in the past three years but have yet to make it to the Big Dance.  Is anything short of NCAA Tournament berth this season going to be considered a failure?
 
PK: No, I don’t think so because expectations will be lower.  Even with 23 wins, there was disappointment in some quarters last year because it was a veteran team.  While many were surprised the team did well, those closely associated with the club knew it would be better than a ninth place team, which is where it was picked.  This year is different. Baron and Kahiem Seawright were the leaders on and off the court.  There is talent, but it does not look to be as clean a fit as last year’s squad was.  This team looks to be a middle of the pack A-10 team, not a title contender.
 
O'B: Jimmy Barron Jr. has taken more hours of sleep away from me than my credit score.  Suffice is to say, that he will not be missed by the Flyer Faithful, though I’m sure his presence will be greatly missed from behind the arc in Kingston.  Who will Coach Barron turn to this season to shoot from three point range and stretch the defense?  Will anyone on URI’s roster be able to strike the same fear in the opposition?
 
PK: With Baron gone, 3-point shooting becomes a major issue.  The Rams likely will be weak in that area.  Keith Cothran came on nicely last year as a complement to Baron.  He will have to carry the load this year, even though his strength is taking it to the basket.  The point guards, Marquis Jones and Stevie Mejia are both only average 3-point shooters, at best.  Delroy James will have to help although he is a slasher, not a shooter.  The wild card is forward Ben Eaves.  He can shoot, but they also will need him inside so he likely will be limited in his time behind the arc.
  
O'B: Coach Baron has put together a solid recruiting class with prep forward Ryan Brooks and combo guard Akeem Richmond.  Can we expect any production from them this season?  If so what kind of impact could they make?
 
PK: Richmond will be given a chance to help because the back court is thin.  Brooks likely will have to bide his time since the frontcourt is deeper.  Baron’s practice as a coach is to bring freshmen along slowly, so I would not look for a big impact from those two.  Since the team has two scholarships available, it would not be a surprise to see a late addition, especially an international player.
 
O'B: Delroy James is coming off a successful year in which he was named the 6th Man of the Year and now he will be getting more time to shine in his senior year as a full time starter.  How is URI planning on using him and what has he been doing to try to limit his inconsistent play? Delroy James is Josh Benson's nightmare fuel.
 
PK: From where I sit, James is the key player.  He will have to step up as the team leader.  Like his three brothers before him, he has tons of talent. He can do a little of everything, including rebound and play defense.  But, as you mention, he was inconsistent last year.  If the team is going to be good, James needs to be strong every night.
 
O'B: Rhode Island basketball has a very colorful history.  The years of Lamar Odom, Jim Harrick, and Zach Marbury gave the program a lot of success, only to ensure they paid the price later.  Rhode Island is now back on stable footing, and they were able to rebound quickly.  What was the turning point in changing URI from toxic program to a successful one?  What lessons were learned and applied by the athletic department to ensure compliance in the future?
 
PK: The URI administration knew it was taking a gamble with Jim Harrick.  It won by reaching the Elite Eight, but lost when it was put on sanctions.  Because of the problems, the school went with someone with a squeaky clean reputation.  That is Jim Baron.  He tires URI fans at times because he speaks so often about requiring his players to be good student-athletes.  But he is serious about it.  He runs a clean program filled with kids who are good to work with. 
 
O'B: Your colleague Kevin McNamara wrote an article in June about Coach Barron’s contract situation that I found interesting.  Barron is currently the highest paid public employee in the state of Rhode Island and is due for a new contract and pay increase, especially if he is successful again this season.  Do you think that Coach Barron could be looking to exit for a higher profile program, especially if the state decides that in a time of financial turmoil it may not be worth spending three quarters of a million dollars on a basketball coach?  Also I found it intriguing that Coach Barron gets a percentage of gate receipts for home games.  Is this simply an incentive-driven consideration or does Barron have a shady past as a nefarious club promoter that we don't know about?
 
PK: Kevin did that story for our paper, The Providence Journal, this summer.  The talks of a possible contract extension were very brief.  The school said it simply did not have any money available. Nothing was done. With reports now about terrible financial problems in Rhode Island the chances of an extension are all but out the window for now.  Giving Baron part of the gate receipts is simply a way for the school to make his salary competitive without digging into its own budget.  I like the word nefarious.  But if there is one guy it does not apply to it is Jim Baron.  Since URI has not made the NCAA Tournament under Baron and since that is not likely to happen this year, either, I think his chances of moving up to a bigger, higher paying school are very unlikely. 
 
O'B: What are you predictions for this coming season?  How will the team finish the year?  Is there any hope to be a perennial A10 contender or will URI fans have to wait until the prophesied coming of Jimmy Barron the Third?
 
PK: The team has backed off its non-conference schedule.  It will not be strong.  I would not be  surprised to see the team win 9 or 10 non-conference games. I would be surprised to see the team win that many in the A-14, although it is a funny schedule.  Lots of good teams, like Dayton, on the road, with the weaker teams at home. It could mean a season close to .500 in the conference.  The program is in solid shape, but not great condition.  It will be fine for the foreseeable future, but being a perennial contender might be too much to ask.  I think the people at URI would love to see Jimmy Baron Jr. come back some day as coach…..

University of North Carolina-Charlotte: Lutz's Last Stand

NASCAR, Soccer, Basketball, Volleyball, everything Charlotte

With last year's epic fail a distant memory, the University of North Carolina-Charlotte 49'ers are hoping to make some splashes in this year's Atlantic 14 standings.  To help us out with this preview, we were graced with the expertise of Jim Utter, blogger supreme/head honcho of The Gold Mine.  Jim, a fan of all sports including NASCAR, also writes for The Charlotte Observer as a sports reporter.  Jim talked to us about Charlotte's chances to bounce back from last year, the Mayoral candidates of Charlotte in 2010, Bobby Lutz lasting another season, and whether or not Paula Abdul will be missed.  Witness the carnage below.

DD: Let's start off with a question about the past.  Charlotte struggled mightily last season, finishing with 11-20 record (yet still destroyed Dayton).  Can you pinpoint the exact problem, if there is one, on why the team under achieved last year?  To me, I chalk it up to inconsistency.  It seems like the team would lose a heart breaker, one point losses to Old Dominion and Clemson, beat up lesser squads like Youngstown State and Long Island, then get hammered by the like of Temple--only to beat teams like Dayton and Xavier?  Is my analysis correct?

JU: Partially.  The reason there was a tremendous lack of consistency was due to a team decimated by injuries that saved its best basketball for home (see Dayton, Xavier wins and a one point loss to Clemson).  Before the season even started, point guard Michael Gerrity quit the team and he was one of only two scholarship guards on the team.  Then freshman shooting guard Shamarr Bowden was lost to a knee injury.  During the season, An'Juan Wilderness, the team's best defender, missed several games with a stress fracture and forward Charles Dewhurst missed half a season with a knee injury (he was arguably the team's second best defender).

DD: Now to the present.  The 49ers return 3 starters from last year's squad, including stud-muffin deluxe DiJuan Harris.  From what I've read, DiJuan had a bit of an ankle injury this summer, but seems to be back at 100%.  From an outsider's perspective, he is clearly the leader of this team.  What can we expect from the rest of the returnees?  Who can replace Lamont Mack's 15 points a game?

JU: I think DiJuan and senior Ian Andersen will be the leaders of the team and much of the direction of the team will be set by Harris.  He won't need to play near the minutes (35+) he was last season as the 49ers have gotten healthier and added sophomore transfer Derrio Green and walk-on freshman Trevin Parks.  There should be plenty of scorers with Bowden, Andersen and Green on the outside, and junior transfer Sharmari Spears and freshmen K.J. Sherill and Chris Braswell in the post.  Senior 6'10" center Phil Jones has also improved dramatically in the offseason. 

Shamarr will haunt your dreams this season.DD: At last check, this will be quite a different team with 6 newcomers to the squad, including redshirts, freshmen, and transfers, suiting up for Bobby Lutz.  Before you give your two cents on the newbies, I am giving you this platform to come up with a nickname for redshirt freshman and junior transfer Shamarr Bowden and Shamari Spears.  They clearly are the best of the new crop and almost have the same name.  If that is not creepy and bad-ass at the same time, I don't know what is.  So, what can be the duo's nickname, and what can we expect from the fresh meat?

JU: I use the slogan Spears/Bowden '10, because it's like a whole new campaign with the two of them eligible.  Bowden spends more time in the gym than any other player on the team and has broken two automatic ball catchers.  Spears' attitude and determination is unmatched on the team, and it pained him to sit and watch last year's losses from the bench.  Charlotte should have its best inside-outside game in years.

I was so nervous that I told Tom my name was Michael.DD: Don't think you are getting out of here without talking about Bobby Lutz or his missing mustache.  Seriously, why did he shave that thing?  I am a huge fan of anything mustaches, which is why Magnum P.I. is my favorite show.  He has been at Charlotte for 11 years, and despite the fact that Charlotte is in the college basketball hotbed of North Carolina, Lutz has more than held his own with a 199-146 overall record.  However, according to some reports, Big Bob is on the hot seat.  Last year, via our site, you stated that Lutz would be back for the upcoming season and he is.  Now, the question remains, what will it take for Bobby to keep his job?  I'd like to think that Charlotte fans are rational and would accept a solid NIT, possible NCAA bid.  However, we all realize that fans are unreasonable (just look at UDPride).  Any predictions for Lutz's future?

JU: There is a lot of talent on this team, but to go from 11-20 to NCAA Tournament in one season is no easy task.  If there is a lot of progress shown this season I think Lutz is safe.  Not to mention, that it would be a hard sell to buy out a coach's contract with 3+ years left in this current economic climate while the state university system faces budget cuts.  No doubt though, Lutz needs to show solid gains.  He has in recruiting, now it must show up on the court.

DD: Last one and I will let you go.  Everyone knows that I only use the Internets to illegally download the newest episode of True Blood, read TMZ.com, and bid on Bobby Lutz's mustache clippings on Ebay.  I tried looking for Charlotte's out-of-conference schedule and had trouble finding it.  Do you have any inside information on some of the teams the 49ers will play? (Editor's note: This interview took place about a month ago).  Also, let's hear your predictions for the A-14 standings.  I happen to think that Charlotte will struggle mightily this season which will of course lead to Lutz being asked to leave.  And lastly, are you going to miss Paula Abdul as much as we will?

JU: Charlotte will play at a stellar OOC schedule.  The 49'ers will play at Louisville, at Tennessee, at Winthrop, at Old Dominion and will host Georgia Tech, Winston Salem State, Mercer and UNC-Asheville.  Additionally, the 49ers are guaranteed four games in the NIT Season Tip-Off Tournament, including a possible second round game at Duke.  (Editor's note: I hope you are reading this Tim Wabler.  THAT is what you call an out of conference schedule!)  My top four for the A-14 preseason are Xavier, Dayton, Charlotte and Richmond.  And I stopped watching American Idol two years ago. :)

Many thanks to Jim Utter.  That smiley face made me laugh out loud, or LOL if you will.  Call it homerism, call it ham and eggism, or just call him drunk, but despite that crazy pick of Charlotte finishing in the top 4, Jim Utter knows his shit.  Hopefully Charlotte can get it all together and finish in the top of the league like Jim predicted because unlike Blackburn and O'Brien, I happen to think that the A-14 will not be that good this year.