Five in Five

Dayton’s performance on Saturday was turrrible. UD was a 13.5 point favorite against a hapless Rhode Island squad still looking for its first conference victory. After falling behind early, Dayton battled back and looked like it would pull out an underwhelming, yet crucial, win. As soon as a Kevin Dillard layup pushed the Flyer lead to 75-72, Jim Baron burned a timeout and rallied his troops. Following the stop in play, and after what must have been a resounding pep talk, the Rams scored the game’s next nine points and closed UD out on the road. When reflecting on the season it may just be the straw that broke the camel’s back

I was asked more than a few times this weekend: was this one of the worst losses in recent memory? Not even close, dear friends.

When evaluating the dreadfulness of a defeat, one must consider not only the overall beating itself but the importance/implication of the loss as well. It’s a sliding scale.

So here you go – my personal, yet completely infallible, list of UD’s five worst losses over the past five seasons (please leave any omissions in the comments). Why five years, five losses? I didn’t want to do substantial homework, that’s why. 

(2/13/08) Duquesne 63 Dayton 61: Brian Roberts’ senior season was full of highlight victories – including wins over Louisville and Pittsburgh, a pair of games we will still be hearing about twenty years from now.  The Flyers ran out to a 14-1 record before hitting some setbacks in conference play (since known as the “Gregory Special”). UD was 4-5 in the Atlantic Ten entering their home clash with the Dukes in mid-February. With seven league games remaining, and a stellar resume to that point, UD still had a lot to play for. Certainly a home game against the middling Dukes would surely have been the catalyst to a 10 win conference record and a probable NCAA bid.

Not so much. Dayton toyed around with Duquesne for 35 minutes, or maybe it was the other way around, but was never able to land a knockout punch. The Flyers had a chance to win or tie the game on the last possession of the game, but an Andres Sandoval three-pointer at the buzzer came up woefully short. UD would eventually finish 8-8 in league play, 21-10 overall on Selection Sunday. 

(3/6/10) Saint Louis 71 Dayton 66: Dayton was an eleven and a half point favorite as the Bills visited the Arena in early March. The game was the conference closer and the Flyers were coming off a close loss at Richmond. A victory over Rick Majerus’ squad would mean a 9-7 finish in the league. The Flyers came out slow, going into halftime down 34-19. UD managed to cut the margin down to just four with over two minutes left, but couldn’t get any closer. It was a capper on a very frustrating season in which the Flyers managed to lose eight conference games by an average of just 3.5 points per game. But fret not; as the t-shirt you are probably wearing right now indicates, UD went on to win the NIT Tournament. 

(3/2/11) Saint Louis 69 Dayton 51: Almost the same exact situation as the previous game on the list, UD once again came out flat and fell behind 35-19 at the half. Unlike the aforementioned contest, the Flyers were never able to get back to within striking distance. Petey Zestermann came in with two minutes left, a breakfast burrito still churning in his stomach, and the season was all but done. A game Dayton absolutely had to win ended in appalling fashion. It was both Chris Wright and Brian Gregory’s last game at UD Arena, how apropos.  

(11/30/11) Buffalo 84 Dayton 55: Archie’s first undressing. Not a season killer by any means, but a shocking result nonetheless. Dayton was still riding some good vibes after winning the Old Spice Classic. After a two-hour pregame commemoration ceremony, in which Archie was awarded a gold-plated blazer and the Old Spice trophy was passed around the entire Arena, the Flyers came out rather flat. The Bulls jumped out to a 32-11 lead and the universe’s best fans hit the exits at the break. It was the first indication that maybe allowing the other team to score on every possession wasn’t the best strategy. Revolutionary? Yes. Effective? Hardly.

(11/27/10) Cincinnati 68 Dayton 34: The “Doubled Up” game. The Flyers scored 19 points in the first half, 15 in the second. Statistically speaking, the game was over with 14:30 still left to go in the game. I’m not a UD basketball historian, although telling girls that I am has led to oral favors in the past, but this defeat must rank near the top of the worst losses in Dayton’s 100+ years of semi-competitive basketball. Supposedly in 1907, back when UD was known as St. Mary’s Institute, the school lost 65-6 to the Oakwood Albino Academy. The Albinos, as legend would have it, were just very light-skinned black guys. Unfortunately, this charge cannot be substantiated (nor denied). Suspicions, however, were raised during the postgame showers. 

Hitting Refresh: The Era of Archie Begins

Remember when something called Andrew Goudelock went off, handing our beloved Flyers a not at all shocking defeat in the first round of the Seth Greenberg/Brian Gregory Invitational? I don’t either, but apparently it happened.  Flash forward 5 months and the Red and Blue begin practice after a rather newsworthy summer.  Before we can dive head first into the new season, let’s take a step back and refresh the storylines leading to Kid Yuma’s first game in the big boy pants.

From Brian to Ryan

Georgia Tech’s loss is Dayton’s gain. BG left to much rejoicing, and Wabby turned his lonely eyes to Mr. Morgan Miller. Who? Fear not, what Archie lacks in experience he makes up for with his refreshing lack of being Brian Gregory-ness. “Motion” is an ambiguous term, there are many different motion offenses, but it’s safe to say Dayton won’t be running the same high ball screen while three other guys stand in the corner. I certainly look for a motion offense to benefit Josh Benson and Devin Oliver. Defensively, I would expect Kid Yuma to bring packline principles to the Gem City. Packline is rather simple; the only defender outside the 3 point line is the man guarding the ball. The goal is to force perimeter passes and contested long jumpers. We can only hope this puts an end to the constant hedging of screens out to 45 feet.

Staten Left, But Kevin Dillard Will Be Way Better

A common theme in Flyerland seems to be that Kevin Dillard will make us all forget about Juwan Staten. Well, you should forget about him. He’s gone. It’s over. Move the fuck on, you’re an adult. The focus should be solely on Kevin Dillard, who actually appears to be good at basketball. Missouri Valley Rookie of the Year in 2009, Dillard averaged 12 points and 4 assists a game his first two seasons, while shooting a fetching 39% from three and having the 16th best assist rate in the country his sophomore year.  Putting a team on the back of a transfer is never ideal, but Archie has no other choice. Dillard will start and get 30 minutes a night from day one.

La Grenouille Est Arrivé

Percy Gibson and LaDontae Henton took their talents to Iowa State and Providence respectively, which left Archie sans a recruiting class. He responded by bringing in the French Luke Fab,  Alex Gavrilovic. The Big Frog originally committed to Providence but was ruled a non-qualifier, forcing him to prep a year at IMG Academy, a school without a post grad team. Alex shows up to UD fresh off a year with no games played, save a few mop up minutes for the French team at some tourney in Europe no one watched. Expect him to shoot threes, roll his eyes at everything and have sex with your girlfriend.

Clean Slate

Archie’s favorite quote so far is “Everyone has a clean slate," which apparently is supposed to make us believe Matt Kavanaugh can average 11 and 7 this year.  Does this mean role players Josh Benson and Devin Oliver take a step forward? Will Ralph Hill get more minutes than Mitch Asmus? Will Kavanaugh finally average less than one fall down per minute played?  In the end, I suspect “clean slate” is just coach speak for “We have a lot of shitty players and I have to play them all, because you can’t go a whole season with a 5 man rotation." Expect fewer bench minutes than you saw from Gregory’s system, but all 10 guys will see time. Even you, Ralph.

Chris Johnson’s Time to Shine?

CJ arrived on campus three years ago and immediately became, if not a star, then certainly a key player. Many people wondered if the wrong Chris was getting all the attention. But over time a sure fire All-A10 player became a one trick pony, all too often satisfied with standing outside the arc and firing away. I checked out kenpom.com and my worst fears were confirmed. 61% (203 of 332) of his FG attempts last season were from behind the arc. Consequently his free throw rate (percentage of team free throws taken while on the floor) declined from 50% his first year to 30% the last two. That’s a disturbing drop for a career 80% free throw shooter. By comparison, Tu Holloway’s FT rate has always been above 60%, which has helped Xavier win more than a few coin flip games over the years.  

His assists rate dropped from 11 to 7, and his turnover rate jumped from 11% to 14%. Certainly some adjustment is expected as he went from playing 39% of available minutes up to 73% last year, but the lack of development between his sophomore and junior years is more than a bit worrisome. Is he not the player we thought he would become? Was it simply CJ being neutered by the Brian Gregory offensive shitshow? Whatever the answer, this team needs Chris Johnson to live up to his First Team All-A10 billing to have any chance for a successful season.

Old Lovers Reunited

They say that love finds a way (don't they say that?), and today's news only reaffirms that adage. After spending the past month or so trying to find a job, any job, Billy Schmidt is reunited with his old boss down in Atlanta.

Schmidt, a forty-something year-old man that insists on being called Billy, is consistently referred to as a "tireless worker." What he works tirelessly at still remains a mystery.

Tech is really fortunate, anytime you can hire the head coach of the ninth place team in the Atlantic Ten you just have to pull the trigger. Adding the head assistant behind that 7-9 mid-major squad? That's a no-brainer, icing on the cake.

After the reports that star-guard Iman Shumpert has decided to remain in the NBA draft, the news that Schmidt is headed down to North Avenue must offer some serious relief to Jacket fans. Speaking from experience, just wait to see how well your big guys develop over the next three to four years -- get excited Tech fans!

Staten Selects State College

As you all have probably heard by now, former freshman phenom Juwan Staten has decided to take his talents to Penn State University. The Nittany Lions will be undergoing a bit of a rebuilding phase the next year or so considering their two big guns -- Talor Battle and Jeff Brooks -- will graduate in a few weeks.

A step up in competition, plenty of playing time and a campus he can remain practically anonymous on, all positives from where I am sitting. The PSU fanbase is football oriented, so Staten can rest assured that the bitter, old white men in Lionland will aim their baseless emotional attacks on their gridiron heroes. As opposed to UD where...well you know.

We wish Juwan the best of luck and hope he finds what he is looking for at Penn State. The BR will be admiring from afar.

London Warren to take over the ATL?

Brian Gregory has offered London Warren a Grad Assistant position at Georgia Tech. Atlanta is a city built for London Warren, this is a can't miss. This shouldn't happen, it HAS to happen.

Goodbye Henton & Gibson, We Never Knew Ye

Per Lance McAllister:

UD announces bball signees Percy Gibson/LaDontae Henton have been granted release from their National LOI's signed during early period.

Although he had an assuredly uphill climb, Archie Miller failed in his first important task as UD's head guy. We shall see what, if anything, Miller does with the four scholarships sitting on his desk calling for love and affection.

Archie's lone accomplishments to this point? Hiring his old boss' video coordinator and showing the Gem City that he scored some hot poon.

Lesson: if a kid wants to meet up with you at a Dunkin' Donuts, he isn't taking you or your program too seriously.

The final tally from Brian Gregory's last season at the helm: 7-9 in the A-10, a first round walloping at the College of Charleston in the NIT and four lost scholarship players. Well done Gregory, well done. I've underestimated your guile.

Youth is Served

Seems to be a hire by demographics. Young? Check. Ohio connections? Check. Association with winning programs? Check. Wears the same ill-fitting suits as his older brother, making him look like a bull lesbian taking steroids prior to sex-change surgery? Check. With the exception of the last point, it’s hard to distinguish him from Boals, Kelsey or any of the other up and coming assistants.

Hope this one works out for Dayton. Many, many more questions than answers, though

The preceding quote comes to us from BR regular and irascible scamp, Rosceaux. After making overtures to St. Mary’s head man Randy Bennett and Duke tailcoat-rider Steve Wojciechowski, Timmy Wabler decided to reach into his bag of tricks and threw us all a curveball. By now, it has sunk in – Archie “Kid Yuma” Miller takes the wheel of the S.S. Flyer.

Rosceaux basically laid out the rationale for the move, thanks to the unprecedented success of Brad Stevens and Shaka Smart, an inquisitive cherub like Archie Miller can elicit a great deal of excitement among a fan base. By the way, college basketball coaching is the only profession I can think of where inexperience is actually looked upon as a selling point. This would not translate well to the real world. “Our new CEO is only 32; got every job he ever had because of his brother’s connections and has absolutely no experience in his new role? Awesome!! This can’t fail!! I’m so excited for the future!” (Although, this is a market where Frank Haith continues to inexplicably rise up the food chain every few years, so maybe there’s a point to be made here.)

Nevertheless, this is not the real world, this is mid-major basketball. I am convinced that just about any competent coach could lead Dayton to a top-four finish in the Atlantic Ten. How Brian Gregory failed to do so repeatedly will always be a mystery to me and clearly illustrates what an underwhelming legacy he left behind. Our concern shouldn’t be whether Archie Miller will come into town and blow our every expectation away. Our genuine apprehension should be focused on whether Miller can merely take advantage of the nearly incomparable resources at his disposable. Dayton’s assets, in contrast to the rest of the conference, make it seem like they are bringing a bazooka to a sword fight. Outside of our Overlords to the South, no program in the league offers such a favorable blueprint for success. In theory, UD should have coaches coming in every four or five years, winning games, making NCAA tournament appearances, and then moving on to a seven-figure payday somewhere else. There is no reason that UD can’t become one of the most prominent Stepping Stone Universities.

You don’t need unspeakable greatness, an unmatched approach to offensive schemes or diplomatic skills that would draw plaudits from the UN to be successful at the University of Dayton. Miller merely needs to be average, completely ordinary, to be competitive in the Atlantic Ten and accomplish things his predecessor could only dream of. Say what you will about this program, and we have, but its stability, its resilient foundation, will never be in doubt. Miller doesn’t face a long-term rebuilding job; he inherits a golden opportunity to build an excellent reputation. To put it plainly, we don’t need Archie Miller to evolve into the next Brad Stevens – we just need him to not turn into the next Brian Gregory.  

Our Overlords Grant Us Their Offspring

According to Jeff Goodman, Sean Miller's little brother Archie is the next coach at UD. 

Miller, 32, is the younger brother of Arizona head coach Sean Miller.

He has been with his brother the past two years after working with Thad Matta at Ohio State and Herb Sendek at Arizona State.

Archie Miller played at N.C. State.

Miller became the front runner after Duke assistant Steve Wojciechowski withdrew from the search.

Archie doesn't fit ANY of the criteria that Tim Wabler mapped out, but we all know by now that Wabler is completely full of shit -- so carry on! Dayton is finally learning, if you can't beat Xavier, at least grab the younger brother of their former coach and see if anything will rub off. Miller hasn't been the head coach of a team at ANY level. But hey, at least he isn't Brian Gregory (or Wojo or Bruiser Flint). So we at the Blackburn Review say welcome Coach Miller, the Gem City awaits your arrival.

Up First: Randy Bennett

Word is that Randy Bennett leads off the Tim Wabler coaching cavalcade. Bennett’s name has popped up in a few coaching searches over the years, most recently at Utah earlier this month, and certainly has an accomplished track record for a mid-major coach.  

However, with absolutely no ties to the Midwest and his penchant for bringing in players from Australia, Bennett would seem like a bit of a reach at Dayton. His Aussie pipeline (otherwise known as the Australian Institute of Sport), which has produced Patrick Mills, Matt Dellavedova, Clint Steindl, and Ben Allen among others, would be hampered significantly. Selling a kid from Melbourne on California is pretty easy; it’s a harder sell to convince them to come to Ohio.

I think when it’s all said and done, Bennett will be writing Tim Wabler a thank you note. “Dear Tim, the pay increase I received from St. Mary’s wouldn’t have been possible without your inquiry…”

Of course, Bennett would make a fine choice for Dayton – but I just don’t see it happening. Time will tell. It just seems like Bennett would want a BCS job, one that's more in his wheelhouse. Bennett has a fairly decent team coming back next year, it doesn't feel like the right move for him at this time.

BG's Press Conference at Georgia Tech