Recon: Duquesne University
February 20, 2012
rosceaux 
Remember the first time you nailed a fat chick? I don’t mean a chubby girl; I mean a certified fat chick. Like the kind that the guy was thinking about when he created the “No Fat Chicks” bumper sticker. I do. It was the summer of 1981. Unfortunately, none of us had the foresight to nickname her “The Refrigerator,” since William Perry did not break onto the scene for another three years. She was a certified heifer though. I was hammered and I was 16 and I threw out a cheesy line to her beautiful friend about taking a walk on the beach. Her friend deflected it, and Sumo-girl grabbed it (and me) and ran.
Under the boardwalk in Seaside, NJ. I vaguely recall her lifting up various folds of gut/thigh jelly in order to fish out her granny drawers. Frankly, I was still thinking about how lucky I was to be having sex with anything at all. If it had been daylight, I’m sure protesters from GreenPeace would have been circling the beach in a rubber dingy, trying to prevent me from harpooning her. The combination of alcohol, sweat, sand, and her gravitational pull (she rivaled the moon for effect on the tide), conspired with my inexperience. It wasn’t pretty, but I got the job done.
This game will not be like that. This game will be like seeing that fat chick again, while sober, and realizing that you are on some (im)moral level contractually bound to go through the same motions again. The light of day and sobriety can be harsh.
I don’t want to play this game, you guys don’t want to have to play this game, but here it is. The only question is, “Who’s the fat chick?”
Overview: I was doing a little research on the upcoming game, and found that Dayton has not won at Duquesne since George W. Bush was president! When you start to measure a team’s futility by the succession of presidents, you are looking at some impressive historical numbers. I can’t imagine that there are many – if any – longer active streaks. It’s one of those things that must pervade the psyches of the fans, coaches, and players alike. Junior guard Kevin Dillard has never won a game at Duquesne. I’d imagine that they’ve been close. Sometimes losing with more talent and sometimes fighting valiantly with much less talent, a short bench, a brand new coach, and a 6’9” forward who can’t make a wide open layup off of a brilliant feed… but they’ve lost nonetheless. It must get into the heads of the players when the Duquesne fans shout “Bush! Bush! Bush!” from the stands even when the cheerleaders are not on the floor.
It’s hard to imagine that this particular streak has been extended this long given the various circumstances surrounding the series. There were unquestionably some UD teams that at the very least matched up well with the Dukes on paper, and even a few years where the Flyers seemed to have the upper hand going into the game in Pittsburgh. Yet, Dayton hasn’t been able to close the deal on Duquesne’s home court for quite some time. No upsets, not a buzzer-beater, nor a single Duquesne collapse. That’s remarkable, so much so it almost defies the odds.
Losing to Duquesne should not be okay. It’s not like an afterschool special when the music rises and everyone realizes that it’s “okay” for your parents to be poor, or divorced, or Jewish. The Flyers must find some way to break this curse.
Fortunately for them, the 2011-12 Dukes will provide ample opportunity. While the Flyers have had an up and down season like a boat riding from swell to trough, the Dukes season has been on and off like a hyperactive kid on RedBull flipping a light switch in the basement. In the past 10 games, the Dukes have gone 5-5. Their five wins have been by an average of 9.5 points, and their five losses have been by an average of 19.5 points.
What does this tell us? Not a whole lot of anything. Either team is capable of playing well. Either team is capable of playing poorly. Both teams are tied at 6-6 in A-10, with the Dukes holding the head-to-head tie breaker. Looking ahead, Dayton is still going to split their Richmond/GW matchups, just as Duquesne will split their Charlotte/GW matchups. It looks like these two teams are playing in the 8-9 game in the A-10 tourney, it’s just a matter of whether it will be played in Pittsburgh or Dayton. The advantages of a home game are fan support for the first 37 minutes until the gray hairs leave, and hopefully a favorable call or two from the refs. The advantages of a game in Pittsburgh are being closer to civilization, and a more well-toothed audience.
I’m sure that if I perused around the websites, someone, somewhere still has the Flyers in the big boy tournament. They’re tougher to kill off than Rasputin. However, another loss to the Dukes and they’re sharing a bathtub with Whitney Houston.
Meet and Greet, Again: As with the earlier game, the Dukes still have no effective inside presence. Andre Marhold and Mamadou Datt will spend some time at the center position. If Kavs the Klown catches the ball, it’s a guaranteed 1.5 points. If the Dukes deny the entry pass, as they did well in the game at UD Arena, it could be another fruitless evening on the court and with the ladies.
Sean Johnson, the Dukes’ 3rd guard or small(est ever) forward has had a Paul Williams-esque turn of events lately. Earlier in the season, he forced his way like a football letterman in the backseat with a drunken flag twirler. He either scored at will or passed off to a willing teammate. In the past few games, he has been getting shut down and shooting blanks (much like me in high school in the backseat with a drunken flag twirler).
In fact, the Dukes offense in general has grown stagnant. Due to the lack of a dependable inside presence, they have relied more and more on an offense resembling the BG weave. It is not pretty from the other side either, believe you me. The Dukes have been hoisting 3 after 3 after 3, and are subject to the same cold shooting and ineffective time management as the old BG teams. However, in conference play, they are hitting 36% of their threes.
The two biggest statistical differences between the two teams are free throw percentage and rebounding. Dayton has the solid advantage in both areas. Dayton hits free throws at a 79.8 percent rate, which ranks 2nd in the conference and 6th nationally. The Dukes hit at a 63.5 percent rate, which ranks them last in the conference and 307th in the nation. That’s embarrassing. Dayton doesn’t have the bodies to foul at their leisure, as this may extend the playing time of Ralph Hill.
By the way, how many “coming out” parties are Ralph Hill, Devin Oliver, and Kavs the Klown going to have? They have the consistency of Rick Santorum’s sexuality. It’s hard to blame the players – or Santorum – for their confused identity. That’s who they are. It’s really the fans who need to latch on to one side exclusively and deny the other that create the chasms of misperception. It’s like the local imbeciles who only see LuKKKe hitting threes and deny his missed bunnies and paraplegic-matador defense and in turn beg for more playing time (Holla back, tman!)
Prediction: It is impossible to predict this game based on this season’s performance for either team. Dayton has toughened up and has been able to take both Xavier and Fordham into overtime periods. Duquesne has been equally schizophrenic. Therefore, I’ll have to rely upon historical projections. Historically, Dayton wins tough games and then blows games to teams they should beat. Historically, Duquesne plays to the middle (though better at home), and then folds down the stretch (especially in rematches). In reality, it’s not about basketball at this point for either team. It’s more about damage control. This is a game that Dayton should win, but I’m going to go with the Dukes by 4.
































