Recon: Duquesne University
February 21, 2010
Tom Blackburn
Even this idiot knows the dealLet’s keep this one simple and factual. Gem City’s finest have five games remaining. Three of those happen to be on the road, a scenario that hasn’t been kind to this program in the past. Two of those roadies are against Hexagonal beasts, Temple and Richmond. Let’s play devil’s advocate and assume that UD loses both of those ballgames, surely not an outlandish supposition in any sense of the word. Just by strictly looking at the loss column, that would bring UD’s total defeats on the season to a staggering six.
At 11-5 (which would mean a road victory against either the Owls or the Spiders), this team looks like, smells like, and acts like a legitimate tournament team. At 10-6 things get murkier than the toilet water at a bus station, but given the unrecognizable condition of college basketball I am still willing to suspend disbelief and hold onto the hope that a couple of wins in Atlantic City will seal the deal.
However, at 9-7 (picture me jabbing you in the chest with my pointer finger at this point) one has to believe that nothing short of a Atlantic Ten tournament championship will get the Flyers to the Dance. Now before you even contemplate dreaming up a creative scenario whereby a 9-7 Atlantic 10 team is a formidable candidate for the NCAA Tournament, ask yourself this: do you really want to live in a world that would allow a 9-7 Dayton squad into the tournament? Is that the kind of world you want to raise your children in? (As a side note, could you imagine a worse year to forward the idea of expanding the NCAA tournament to 96 teams? This season will always signify what an absolutely horrible idea that was. I realize our culture is increasingly intent on rewarding mediocrity, but there isn't an articulable argument to be made that would convince the majority of basketball fans that expansion to 96 would somehow improve the competitive spirit of the NCAA Tournament).
Don Donoher has had it up to here with this bullshitSo where does this leave us? In a sense, on the razor's edge. A loss to Duquesne means UD would have to sweep Temple and Richmond -- let's put those odds at somewhere around 15% -- to have any chance of an at-large bid (At least I think so, it seems that bubble teams keep losing and the bar keeps getting set lower and lower, so who knows what the future holds at this point). In sum, Sunday's game is a ...(deep breath)... MUST WIN!!!!!!!!!! Buckle up.
Overview. The Dukes are currently 5-7 in the league, but that’s sort of a deceiving indication of what kind of club they are. Certainly, UD fans are aware that Duquesne is capable of beating any team in the league on any given night. Although Duquesne was slated to take a step back this season (you don’t move on from a player like Aaron Jackson, you stay awake at night wondering if he is looking at the same star you are), they haven’t played to the level that most pundits expected. If not for Jason Duty's choke job from the foul-line at the end of the UD game, the Dukes would be 6-6 going up against a 6-5 Dayton squad for sole possession of seventh place in the A-10.
Meet and Greet. The buck stops with Damian Saunders. He currently leads the Atlantic Ten in minutes per game, rebounds per game, steals per game, and blocks per game. Throw in his fifteen points a contest and you have one of the most valuable and complete players in the conference. Saunders had 21 and 11 during his last time out against UD, playing 43 minutes in the overtime loss. Saunders puts in a man's day of work every time he steps on the floor, averaging an impressive 38 minutes a game this season. The only way he leaves the court is if he is in foul trouble or has an open, festering wound.
Saunders sleeps twenty minutes a dayForwards Bill Clark and B.J. Montiero round out the starting frontcourt for the Dukes. Clark has been really coming on during the back stretch of the conference schedule, scoring 34 against La Salle last weekend and 18 in DU’s upset victory over Charlotte on Wednesday. Montiero has been hot over the last few games as well, averaging just under fifteen points a game during the Dukes last three games. Clark and Montiero are probably Duquesne's best perimeter shooters, and they do decent work on the boards as well.
The Duquesne backcourt is led by sophomores Melquan Bolding and Eric Evans. Bolding is the epitome of streaky. Although he averages 12 points per outing, his scoring outputs are 18 point games sandwiched between 6 point performances. Evans is the team’s best Tweeter and does a pretty good soft shoe. Lest we forget Jason Duty, the Patron Saint of Missed Free-Throws, plays a significant role for this Dukes squad as well. Duty is having a horrible season shooting the ball, but has good hair -- and that, my friends, means everything.
Freshmen Sean Johnson and Rodrigo Peggau, and seven-foot sophomore Morakinyo Williams, pick up the pieces when they have to. Johnson was a fairly regarded recruit who has performed admirably in relief during the season (6 ppg, 43% from the field). Peggau is a swarthy Brazilian who dreams in 3-D, Williams is the Duke most likely to have eaten lion meat.
The Numbers Game. “A statistician is someone who is good with numbers, but lacks the personality to be an accountant.”
| PPG | FG% | FT% | 3P% | RPG | ORPG | DRPG | APG | TPG | SPG | BPG | FPG | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UD | 70.3 | 42.0 | 66.2 | 32.8 | 39.0 | 12.1 | 26.5 | 14.8 | 14.4 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 19.5 | |
| DUQ | 69.5 | 42.0 | 60.8 | 25.9 | 38.6 | 13.1 | 25.5 | 13.7 | 14.7 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 18.8 | |
| UD Opponents | 61.4 | 39.3 | 65.0 | 32.6 | 32.4 | 9.9 | 22.5 | 10.9 | 14.8 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 19.0 | |
| DUQ Opponents | 69.4 | 40.1 | 64.4 | 32.6 | 42.2 | 15.3 | 26.8 | 13.8 | 16.4 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 20.3 |
Statistically, there is not much separating these two teams. Both score around 70 points a game, rebound the ball fairly well and share the same exact shooting percentage. The numbers that are shocking to me are the rate at which the Dukes connect from the stripe and from behind the arc. Duquesne hits just 60% of its free-throws and a dismal 25% from three-point territory. You would think that a team that scores seventy points a contest would be fundamentally sound from the stripe and downtown, but that's just not the case with this team. Jason Duty is the team's best three-point shooter (33%) and Bill Clark is DU's most solid foul-shooter (73%). Paul Williams would be considered a sharp-shooter on this team. Lastly, don't rub your eyes, the Dukes do in fact give up almost 16 offensive rebounds per game. Ghastly, ghoulish stuff.
Jason Duty, pray for usPrediction: The boys in the desert currently have your Flyers as five point favorites coming into this one, which seems a bit high considering the outcome from January and the fact that UD struggles on the road, but that's why sports books print money and your wife won't let you have a debit card.
I'm going to be honest for the first time in my life, I'm really worried about this one. Dayton is staring down the barrel at two losses and their play on the road is, to put it kindly, completely fucking abysmal. Duquesne should have taken the Flyers down when they were at the Arena, so you have to assume that the Dukes will come into the game playing with a lot of confidence, full of piss and vinegar. But the Dayton Flyers are the C students of college basketball, they do just enough to get by. The Dukes game will be no different.
The Flyers escape Pittsburgh with the win, 77-72. Marcus Johnson hits a big three pointer to give Dayton a three-point lead and Chris Johnson hits two free-throws to ice the game for UD. BG gets the necessary victory and turns his attention to the Temple game on Wendesday (does UD even go back to the Gem City, or does the team just head to Philly and lie in wait for the Owls?). Now the only question remains, can Gregory possibly use tainted cheese-steaks as an excuse for a loss twice in one season? I think BG has huge, sweltering balls, so I say yes. Stay tuned.
Duquesne,
damian saunders,
recon,
ron everhart 


















