Best Case, Worst Case

ESPN.com blogger Eamonn Brennan, who in my opinion looks just like hunky BR blogger Harry Baujan, revealed his take on the best case/worst case scenario for the Atlantic 10. Nothing mind-blowing, just a straight-forward and predictable take on the conference as a whole.

A few choice nugs:

Dayton

Best case: A 2010-11 NCAA tournament appearance shouldn't be the best case for Dayton. It should be the only case. The Flyers dropped a host of close games on their way to an NIT berth (and eventual title) in 2009-10; all told, they were a bit unlucky to miss out. With forward Chris Wright back for another season, it'd be a shock to see the 2010-11 Flyers suffer the same fate.

Worst case: 2009-10 all over again. This is an NCAA tournament team. Or, at least, it should be.

Have to take exception to what Brennan believes would be a "shock." Even the most ardent Prider wouldn't be surprised to see the Flyers miss the Dance again this season. Yes, UD does bring back enough talent to put itself in the post-season discussion, but there are certainly enough holes to put that possibility in doubt.  Relying on freshman is usually a recipe for disaster unless you are Kentucky or Duke. It's hard to imagine that Staten, Parker, et al. will hit the ground running and transition smoothly into Gregory's system. (Not saying it can't or won't happen, just that it's not reasonably foreseeable.) Consider that UD will have next to no interior presence, and it's hard to imagine that an NCAA berth is to be expected.

If the worst case scenario means another appearance in the NIT, I can accept that. I would like nothing more than to replace my current "NIT Champion" car floor mats with a "Back-to-Back NIT Champion" set. 

Rhode Island

Best case: Featuring the best returner from a potent offensive lineup -- the Rams finished No. 37 in the country in offensive efficiency last season -- in senior forward Delroy James, the Rams incorporate new 7-foot-3 project Blake Vedder alongside seven-foot center Will Martell to dominate A-10 teams on the interior. If so, the Rams compete for the A-10 title again, and you hear from them in March.

Worst case: Vedder doesn't pan out and guards Marquis Jones, Steve Meija, and Akeem Richmond can't make up for the backcourt losses of Keith Cochran and Lamonte Ullner, leaving the Rams imbalanced and unable to repeat their 26-win 2009-10 season.

The Rams, on paper, present a curious case. With Martell and Vedder, URI boasts the A-10's only Twin Tower combination, albeit a post 9/11 version, but still, those are some tall motherfuckers. (Whenever a seven footer is listed as a "project" you know that means he has the mobility of Stephen Hawking in a closet.) Still, with Jones, James, and Richmond, the Rams have a solid nucleus. If they can get some production, especially defensively, from their mongoloids, Jim Baron's group could compete for a tourney spot.

More than likely, the worst case scenario takes place: a solid, but unspectacular season. URI always seems destined for a late-season swoon, and this year will likely serve up more of the same.

Richmond

Best case: Kevin Anderson is back. That's great news for a Richmond team that broke out in 2009-10, winning 26 games and making the NCAA tournament for the first time in coach Chris Mooney's tenure. If all goes well, Anderson will star again, and the Spiders will justify their considerable preseason hype with an A-10 title.

Worst case: The loss of senior guard David Gonzalez, Richmond's most efficient offensive player last season, leaves Anderson exposed in the backcourt. Senior forwards Justin Harper and Dan Geriot can't make up for the loss of Gonzalez's ability, and the Spiders, instead of surging into the national scene, take a step back into the middle of the A-10 muck.

The more I look at Richmond, the less I like their chances. I say that with all due respect, because I really like Anderson, HC Mooney and the cagey Geriot. However, next to Crawford, Gonzalez will be the hardest player to replace in the conference. Although Harper is solid, and Geriot should be able to contribute more this season, the onus falls squarely on Anderson to carry the Spiders to another NCAA tournament run. While Anderson is certainly one of the most talented, and more importantly clutch, players in the A-10, it's hard to imagine him doing it all by himself.

I still think the Spiders have more than enough to finish top three in the league, but someone needs to step up and take the scoring burden off of Anderson to make this team a consistent performer next season.

Saint Louis

Best case: Were it not for three late losses to three of the league's best teams (Xavier, Temple, and Rhode Island), Rick Majerus' surprising Billikens would have made the NCAA tournament. With most of that talent returning (and, theoretically, maturing), St. Louis's best case features an Atlantic-10 title.

Worst case: The 2009-10 Billikens' defense was never a problem. Their No. 190-ranked adjusted offensive efficiency was. If St. Louis doesn't rebound its own misses or get to the free throw line more frequently than last year, Majerus could have another good-but-not-great season on his hands.

This is it for the Rick, a season that could change the entire culture of the SLU program. The Bills have everything you need to win a title: experience, depth, size, contempt, a healthy understanding of the male form in its natural state. The worst case scenario for Majerus is anything but a trip to the NCAA tournament. There is no silver lining if Saint Louis fails to get it done this year. Just the taunting reminder of what could have been, and towels that never seem to smell fresh, no matter how hard you scrub them.

Temple

Best case: Temple wasn't supposed to win the A-10 title in 2009-10; most thought Fran Dunphy'syoung team needed a year to grow into the role. Not so much: Temple featured one of the nation's best defenses last season, and with all of the key players returning, that shouldn't change. Best case is another title, but this time, with a few NCAA tournament wins to complement it.

Worst case: It's hard to envision Temple taking a step back, but if it does, it will have the loss of Ryan Brooks' efficient point guard play to thank. For as good as its defense was, Temple can't afford to worsen on offense.

Temple is going to be in the field of 68, mark it down. They got the coaching, the defense and enough pieces to dominate the conference again this year. The worst case scenario for this program would be an erratic A-10 performance, one that leads to a 8+ seed in the NCAA tourney.  The Owls will be looking to play into the second weekend this season. Ramone Moore steps in for Brooks, and Temple doesn't miss a beat.

Xavier

Best case: The Musketeers lost a lot this offseason. Star guard Jordan Crawford, one of the country's most exciting scorers, is off to NBA pastures, and anchor forward Jason Love, the team's most efficient offensive player, graduated. If Jamel McLean can make up for Love's absence and Terrell Holloway can assume some of Crawford's scoring load, Xavier should be able to do what it always does: win in the A-10 and make the NCAA tournament.

Worst case: This is easier to envision, though not necessarily more likely. Crawford was incredibly high-usage last season -- he took the 12th-highest percentage of his team's shots in the country -- and if Xavier struggles to plug that hole with Holloway and crew, Xavier could break its impressive streak of NCAA tournament runs.

Xavier is Xavier. The worst case scenario never seems to happen to programs like theirs. I'm not confident that Xavier will win the league this year, no one seems to be, but I'd bet good money that they will once again make the postseason. Xavier, like Dayton, may need some of its freshmen to step up and produce immediately to enjoy a successful campaign.

You can't fully judge the Musketeers until they start playing their conference slate. Although they may take some lumps in the OOC schedule, X should have no problem winning 10-12 conference games this year. Xavier, and Temple, are always the most mentally prepared teams coming into league play, so don't be surprised if Xavier is competing for the league crown come mid-February.