Recon: Rhode Island

Rhode Island is not the best team in the conference. In fact, they are not even the best team called the Rams in the conference. They are 3-18 overall, 0-6 in conference, and have already lost a game at Fordham. After the second half pantsing delivered by the Hawks, they are just what Doctor Willie ordered.

Given the firing of Bobby Lutz and the misguided razor taken to Fran Dunphy, the only thing that Jim Baron has been winning this year has been the battle of the moustache. On the court? No, not so much. Baron built a respectable team and stayed there. In 10 years, he has been to the NIT 5 times, and has won 20 games 6 times. He even has won the A-10 coach of the year award 3 times at URI (2003, 07, and 09) and once in 1995 at his alma mater, St. Bonaventure (is he giving his peers free mustache rides?) Baron’s most recent graduating class has collected the most wins by a class in URI history.  And, of course, he has led the Rams to the NCAA tournament a grand total of zero times.  Each season has been termed a success. And where has all of this mediocrity landed him? Right here in this shit-show.

We’ll spend this week looking at the travels of Rhode Island’s shooting guard, Billy Baron. Billy heeded big brother Jimmy’s warnings and spurned his father to play at the University of Virginia. He had been averaging over 11 minutes per game as a freshman in the ACC while putting up 3 ppg. Not lottery numbers, but not too bad for a halfway decent league. Yet, prior to the start of his second semester, he transferred back to his father’s crumbling kingdom in Kingston. Why? With a tip of the cap to any UD students needing to come up with a theme for their latest lit projects, we here at the BR propose a few possible themes:

Avenging the father

Perhaps the most enduring literary theme has been that of the son avenging the father. From Orestes to Samurai Jack, from Inigo Montoya to Batman, the son seeking vengeance has been a powerful theme. Maybe none as enduring as Hamlet. In his case, Hamlet is driven mad by his father’s ghost and sets on a course to kill his Uncle Claudius who has not only murdered his father, but is also nailing his mother. A lot of other stuff ensued that were not in the Cliff notes, and I’ve never made it through a whole movie since Ophelia never shows her titties. Let it be known, however, that if you make a few bad choices in life, have a strong jawline, and want to be taken seriously as an actor, you will eventually be looking up the definition of the words “nunnery,” “forsooth,” and “perchance” in the dictionary.

Young mssr. Baron may be trying to forestall or even proactively avenge the inevitable canning of his father.  Is the move from Charlottesville, Va. to Kingston madness? While Virginia is certainly in the South, it is more of a border state on the poon scale. However, whatever talent is there tends to apply to UVA. I’d say one part madness.

Building upon the legacy of the father

This doesn’t have as much punch in literary circles, but we can find a few examples. While Michael Corleone certainly used ruthless tactics, his killings were done to consolidate power, not just for vengeance. Even the bullets pumped into Sollozzo and McCluskey were “strictly business.” Donald Trump built upon his father’s legacy in real estate and having bad hair to climb to the top of the ladder in both worlds. A more appropriate sporting metaphor might be that of Bobby and Barry Bonds. Bobby Bonds was a very good outfielder who played most of his career for the Giants. He was a sometimes all-star who averaged 29 homers and 90 RBIs over a 14 year career. To build upon his father’s legacy, son Barry shrank his balls to the size of frozen peas.

Making the father’s legacy look good in comparison to the son’s own bumbling travails 

The examples are even fewer, but it is possible for the offspring to be so ridiculously inept as to make the father look good in comparison. Off the top of my head, I’d look at Chaz Bono and Lethal Weapon2 as unduly inflating the relative competence of their predecessors.  Then again, I am aware of one character who gloriously tried to redeem his father’s legacy by his own colossal misunderineptitude. Saddened to see that his father was placed on a list of the ten worst presidents in American history, George W. Bush sought to right that wrong. By staking a claim even further down the list, he attempted to push his father into a higher range. I haven’t seen proof myself, but W. must also have been distantly related to Millard Fillmore. How else could one explain a second term? Clearly, he tried to push Fillmore out of the bottom five. It’s the only reasonable way to explain Katrina, corporate bailouts, the subprime clusterfuck, the Plame affair, John Bolton, and the emergence of the “Real Housewives of…” franchise.

Before you dismiss this as being an implausible justification of Billy’s actions, check out the last 5 seconds of Rhody’s loss at Fordham

So who is Billy Baron? I have no idea. Is he trying to save his father’s job by returning to Rhode Island as the prodigal son? Does he think he can carry on as a local hero and redeem the Jim Sr/ Jimmy Junior legacy in Kingston? Or… is his mother so MILF-alicious that he is taking the Oedipal off ramp in a misguided courtship that includes striking down his father? 

While we all finish reflecting upon how we each measure up short in comparison to our own fathers, let’s turn our attention to our nextest opponent. It’s a much easier dragon to slay.

Meet and Greet: You can’t spell turible without URI.

The Rams currently sit at RPI 277. They have not beaten a single team in the top 200, and have gone 3-3 against teams rated 200 or higher. Why are they so putrid? It’s all about defense. Rhode Island gives up more than 75 points per game (ranking 322 in Division I), allow opponents to shoot over 48% (333), and allow more than 14 assists per game (329th).

Their ranking is slightly better in conference play, as they had two key players become available in December. The First is Billy Baron. Billy heeded big brother Jimmy’s warning…. Oh, right, we’ve been there already. Baron is averaging 13.5ppg in conference games. He is shooting 46% from the field and 36% from behind the arc. Baron was recently joined in the backcourt by Andre Malone, who also started playing in December after transferring from Auburn halfway through last year.  He’s averaging 12.7 ppg in conference play and is shooting 45% from the field and 31% from three. Both of URI’s remaining fans were eagerly awaiting the spark that these two would provide the otherwise moribund team. If possible, things have only gotten moribunder. The Rams are 2-8, with one of those wins coming against the Boston College debating team, who apparently switched uniforms with the basketball team this year.

Jonathan Holton is a freshman power forward who clocks in at 6-9/ 220. He will be a solid player someday. If LuKKKe is given the defensive assignment, that day will be Saturday. He’s seems to be one of the few players left who gives half a shit. He’s averaging 10 and 8, and when he eventually grows into his frame, may lead the league in surliness. On the other end of the spectrum is Orien Outerbridge. (“Orien” is the Aramaic word for “enigma” or “lost opportunity.”) He’s 6-9/225, averaging 11 and 7. I thought that he would be eating up the conference by his senior year, but his play has been consistently inconsistent. He sat out the first part of his junior year to “focus on academics,” which has led to a nomination for a MacArthur Foundation grant.

Nikola Malesevic is a 6-7 three point specialist who adds another 12 points per game on 34% 3-point shooting (after averaging 46% last year). Levan Shengelia is a 6-9 bruiser looking to add some color to the milky white appendages of the Ivory Towers. He hails from Georgia. Not the pussy Georgia where pussies come from. The Georgia that sends hungry foreign-exchange KGB agents – I mean students - to upset an otherwise gentlemanly game.

Prediction: I predict that everyone will get theirs.  Even Paul Williams should get a couple of points off the porous Ram defense. Coach Archie will continue look like Steve from Blue’s Clues dressed for a funeral, and commentator John will now post from fake names on someone else’s computer.  This is the kind of defense that will allow Chris Johnson (and possibly Dennis Williams) to shine. Flyers by 11.

Sidebar: Last week, tman quoted my writing from this site and used it for a self-serving post on another board. Now I know how Robert Oppenheimer felt at Los Alamos.

Recon: University of Rhode Island

Baron controls all the action in Federal HillYour Dayton Flyers are officially in survival mode. With two losses in its first five conference games (should have been three losses if not for the patron saint of choke jobs, St. Duty of Duquesne), UD has a tough road to navigate. After tonight’s game with Rhody, UD travels to St. Bonnie (a tough road environment), hosts Xavier and Charlotte (two formidable challengers to the throne) and then travels to Saint Louis (a city that has given UD fits in the past). It’s hard to imagine that the Flyers run the table over the next five games, but that is essentially what they will have to do in order to remain in the at-large picture. With the common consensus holding that a 12-4 record would likely result in a bid, UD would need to close the season out on a 9-2 run. That sound you hear is Brian Gregory’s anus puckering.

How UD plays coming off the loss to St. Joe’s will tell how much fight is left in our basketball Flyers. Like my grandfather used to say, “You can measure someone’s character by how quickly they gather themselves after getting smacked in the mouth. The faster they get up, the more heart they have. Your grandma used to pick herself off the ground after just a few seconds, that’s when I knew I had me a keeper.” My grandfather was a wise soul.

Tonight’s tussle with Rhode Island will likely serve as a turning point in the season. A win gives UD a solid conference win, and a victory over a team with a top-20 RPI. A loss could see the Flyer’s season accidentally tumbling down the stairs like my grandma whenever dinner was cold. For a program that traces much of its strength in protecting the home court, a loss to Rhode Island will serve as a deafening distress call to the rest of the conference. A defeat would further increase the distance between Dayton and the upper-tier of the league (Xavier, Temple, Rhode Island, Charlotte, Richmond). If I could hype this game up any further I would, but I think you get the point -- a win would be a vital shot in the arm for the Flyers.

Before we dive face first into URI, there’s just one quick house cleaning item to discuss.

BG is…peculiar. There are two aspects to the DDN’s coverage of UD basketball that I find entertaining without fail.  Any nonsensical defense of Kurt Huelsman’s play and quotes from Chris Wright that indicate a general lack of English comprehension. Now, let’s add bizarre statements from Brian Gregory to that list. From the people’s paper, the head man’s reaction to the St. Joey loss:

“When you play like that, you don’t deserve to win,” UD coach Brian Gregory said. “It was a poorly coached game and a poorly played game... I’d have been more upset if we won the game because it would go against what we believe.”

Is anyone else having trouble understanding BG’s message here? If my appraisal is correct, Gregory is essentially saying that if the Flyers don’t follow the game plan, their preferred style of play, he would rather lose than win. Yes? Just when I think Gregory is ready for the big time, he comes out and says something inane like this. Could you imagine providing the press with this quote after a tough loss in the Big Ten? There would be “For Sale” signs and burning effigies on his lawn the next morning. Let’s revisit this quote if/when UD is one of the last teams held out of the field on Selection Sunday. You may have wings Brian Gregory, but you are not ready to fly…

Here is another gem from the Coach:

“Our defense was atrocious. We couldn’t guard the ball and we didn’t give any help. They turned it into a one-on-one game.”

Dayton's Boss HoggReally, you thought the defense was atrocious? St. Joseph’s shot 39.6% from the field, got out-rebounded by 13, and were held nine points below their season average. The defense was just fine, the type of D that will result in a win nine times out of ten in this conference. It was the offense that was “atrocious.” UD scored just 59 points a game against the Hawks, sixteen points below SJU’s points-allowed average (75 ppg). You know what else was atrocious? Not calling a timeout when you have one on the books in order to set up a play at the end of the game.  

Don’t expect any clarification as to why a timeout wasn’t called at the end of the SJU game. The question will never be asked and BG certainly won’t volunteer an explanation. Doug Harris and the rest of the Dayton Daily News reporters need the University of Dayton more than the U of D needs the DDN. The newspaper is essentially a state-run body at this point. Brian Gregory could run over a Haitian immigrant, while blind drunk and getting a blowie from an underage Malaysian boy and it would more than likely be covered up. That’s one of the advantages of being the top dog in a small mill town (I tell people that Dayton is a small mill town in order to placate their impressions of small town Amurika). Gregory, to his credit, is well aware that deflection is the best tool to satiate the masses. As a corporate defense attorney my advice is always simple and straightforward, “Deny until you die.” I think BG would be a very agreeable client.

With that being said, I present the Rhode Island Rams for your review.

Overview.A win in tonight’s game is imperative for both teams. The loser moves to 3-3 in conference, with its at-large possibilities effectively vanquished. URI comes into the game with an impressive 15-3 record (8-2 over the last ten games), with wins over Providence, Boston College and Oklahoma State. The Rams’ two conference losses came at the hands of Temple, a 68-64 defeat, and an eleven point loss to Jordan Crawford’s Musketeers over the weekend. The Rams have a very un-UD-like road record, going 6-2 on the season. Depending how things shake out the rest of the season, this could be a de facto elimination game, as this is the only time these two teams meet this season (I’m already penciling in Temple and Xavier on the B.R. bracket, and it’s hard to imagine more than three teams making it from the A-10 come March). Joey Lunardi sure seems to think so:

In an interview on ESPN.com, Lunardi said: “A big game this week, Dayton hosting Rhode Island. That’s an early bubble game. The loser of that will probably drop out of the bracket next week.”

Now I feel confident in my opinion. Having Joe Lunardi on your side is like walking into a VFW hall with an elderly Asian man in a head lock, you earn respect without saying a word.

Meet and Greet. The good news for the rest of the Atlantic Ten is that this Ram team will be severely depleted at the close of business this year. Jim Baron must feel like the manager of Menudo when those Latin lads start sprouting ball fuzz; he knows he will be forced to turn the whole group over the next season. Led by a triumvirate of seniors, the Rams only go about eight or nine deep.  The seniors account for approximately 55% of the Rams’ points, 50% of the rebounding, 55% of the shot attempts and get the fattest buds whenever there is a smoke circle -- which knowing URI, is often.

URI's black Jon ScheyerThe Rams are led by 6’4” guard Keith Cothran, who is following a breakout junior season with an impressive final year in Kingston. Averaging 16.4 points per game, Cothran is equally adept at driving to the basket or hitting shots from outside, connecting on 46% of his shots from the floor. Cothran is a shoot-first, shrug, and then shoot again off-guard, he will only pass in the most necessary of circumstances. A big part of his game is doing work on the glass, as he is grabbing around four rebounds a game.

Cothran’s selfishness is acceptable, as point-guard Marquis Jones is the leading assist man in the Atlantic Ten (4.8 apg). Jones protects the basketball like a cop hiding seized money in a crawl space, bringing a Jon Scheyer-esque assists-to-turnover ratio of 3.3:1 to the table (Scheyer’s ratio is actually 3.7:1, which is phenomenal when you consider that he is playing out of position with little help on the inside. This is the last time anything complementary will be said about anyone or anything associated with Duke University). Jones, like his counterpart London Warren, shies away from shooting the ball. Most of his field goal attempts will come from three-point territory when left unaccompanied on the perimeter. He shoots out of sheer embarrassment and necessity.  

Rhode Island’s frontcourt is led by senior forwards Delroy James and Lamonte Ullmer. James has a vastly improved game, as he came into URI with little outside touch and now has a consistent 10-15 foot jumper in his offensive stash (yes Flyer fans, it’s possible to develop a jumper in college). James is scoring around fourteen points a contest and pulling down six rebounds as well. James’ 44% shooting percentage is skewed by his 30% shooting from behind the arc (DJ hoisted seven threes in the Rams’ loss to Xavier over the weekend, not connecting on a single attempt—he’s URI’s Paul Willie). Ullmer leads the team in minutes played (30.6 mpg) and rebounds (7.6 rpg), registering four double-doubles on the year. Ullmer is not the threat from the outside, opting to do his damage within five feet (aka the Flyght Zone). Key to URI’s attack is the foul-shooting ability of both their starting forwards, as James and Ullmer are shooting a collective 75% from the stripe.

Will Martell, a true seven footer, will start in the middle for Rhody. With a dearth of 84-inchers around the country, there is a rather simple explanation as to why Martell ended up at URI (I’ll let you do the mental gymnastics). Nevertheless, Martell’s overall contributions to the Ram attack are anything but negative. In twenty-two minutes a game, Martell is scoring 6.6 points and snatching 5.3 rebounds per game. Additionally, he is shooting a robust 56% from the floor and 70% from the foul-line. Throw in a block and half a game and I would gladly trade Huelsman and Big Dog Searcy for Martell. I’m bullish on Josh Benson, so he’s off the trading block.

Kingston's freak of natureIn O’Brien’s preseason interview with Paul Kenyon of the Providence Journal, shooting-guard Akeem Richmond was slated as the freshman most likely to make an impact in year one. That prediction has come to fruition, as Richmond is seeing plenty of action for the Rams (sixteen minutes a game to be precise. URI’s other freshmen, Ryan Brooks and Nikola Malesevic, have barely left the bench this season). Richmond is Rhody’s best three-point shooter (38%) and scores eight points per outing. Whereas Marquis Jones acts as URI’s calming factor, Richmond plays with the type of reckless abandon that only a Flyer fan could appreciate. With more turnovers than assists, Richmond’s erratic play is typical of a freshman trying to learn the ropes. It will be interesting to see what type of defenses Brian Gregory throws at the Rhode Island offense when Marquis Jones is outside the Arena catching a smoke.

Stevie Mejia (didn’t he play for DePaul?) and Orion Outerbridge are two Bostonians that should see significant playing time off the pine. Mejia, a loveable scamp who stands at just 5’9”, does a decent Marquis Jones impression when he is in the game. Like Jones, Mejia cherishes the ball as if it was his first born, and comes into tonight’s tilt with a 2.4:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Not a threat to hit anything from outside (38%-25%-84%), Mejia averages just 3.8 points per game.  Outerbridge, a 6’9” sophomore, is enjoying an industrious season. How does seven points, three boards and a block in seventeen minutes sound? Don’t lie, production like that from a Dayton big man would probably lead to Hall-of-Fame enshrinement.

Numbers Game. The essence of statistics is not to make simple things complicated, but to make complicated things simple. 

		PPG	FG%	FT%	3P%	RPG	ORPG	DRPG	APG	TPG	SPG	BPG	FPG
	URI	78.6	46.3	72.6	31.7	35.8	12.8	22.9	15.2	12.4	8.7	5.3	16.8
	UD	69.5	43.7	66.6	32.4	38.6	12.5	25.6	14.9	14.7	6.2	3.4	20.1
	URI Opponents	70.6	45.2	63.8	33.9	36.2	12.9	23.3	13.7	16.2	4.9	2.0	19.0
	UD Opponents	62.1	40.4	65.7	33.3	32.4	9.6	22.8	11.4	15.2	5.9	3.2	19.0

Alysha Castonguay = URI 1, UD 0.Rhode Island does a lot of things better than most teams in the conference. They lead the A-10 in scoring (78.6 ppg), are second in field-goal percentage (46.3%), second in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.25:1), and third in free-throw percentage (72.6%). However, as good as the Rams are on offense, they are equally deficient on the defensive end. URI is ninth in the league in scoring defense (70.6 ppg), dead last in the conference in defensive field-goal percentage (45.2%), and tenth in rebounding (32.5 rpg). The formula for the Rams is simple, score over 70 points and they win (Rams are 15-1 in games scoring 70+). Score less than 70, the Rams likely crawl from the Arena with a loss (0-2 in games scoring less than 70). The onus will be on UD’s defense to bring home the victory.

Prediction:This is a tough call. UD's current home winning-streak is a reminder of just how difficult it is for opponents to come into the Arena and leave with a victory. I'm not sure what we are in store for tonight. My gut tells me that it will be a tight game throughout, but I wouldn't be surprised if either side wins handily either.

I do know this, as easy as it was to predict that Chris Wright would have a field day with SJU, I can't see him getting as many easy looks as he did against Rhode Island's frontcourt. URI's forwards are athletic and will make Kountry Chris work on the defensive end as well. I'd still expect Wright to have a decent game, let's say 12 points and 9 rebounds. In addition, there is no way Chris Johnson comes out as flat as he did against St. Joe's. CJ gets back on track, scoring 17 and inhaling 11 boards.

I'm going to revert to last year's theme, which is to say the Flyers win when they absolutely have to. They took down St. Joseph's and Xavier at home when a loss could have been disastrous, and they got past Richmond in the A-10 tournament when a loss probably meant the Flyers were NIT-bound. So...Flyers win. 71-68 UD, Rob Lowery hitting big free throws to seal the deal. Jim Baron is just glad to get back to Rhode Island, where he can get a decent plate of veal scaloppine.