THE SHITHOUSE RAT Comment of the Week

Bodog

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Entries in recon (26)

Tuesday
Jan102012

Recon: St Bonaventure University

Things are going really well in Flyer land right now. Dayton is "cruising" with a 12-4 overall record to go along with an unbelievable 2-0 conference record. The Flyers are getting some dap from Andy Katz and are sitting pretty in the land known as Joe Lunardi's Bracketology. Things are SO good that Blackburn is seriously contemplating a return trip to Dayton for the first time in nearly 10 years. It's been that kind of year, folks!

But what is Dayton's all time Achilles heel? Winning against so-so/shitty teams on the road. And you don't get much so-so/shittier than St Bonaventure. With the game being played in Bumble fuck, New York, it reminds me of a story that Keith Waleskowski once told us here at the BR:

My sophomore year, we went to St. Bonaventure. This is just crap to begin with because you are in the middle of nowhere, have a 2 hour bus ride after a flight to the nearest "regional" (1 baggage claim, 1 runway, 1 check-in gate, a John Deere tractor brought our bags to the claim and threw them through a hole in the wall on the table) airport, and the showers in the motel (yes MOTEL) had a nice dirt/water mix to them. Well, we had the ball at the end of the first half and I took a shot as time expired. The ball bounced around the rim but finally fell out. On our way off the court, their mascot was trying to heckle me and I (being pissed) shoved him by the face into the side of the bleachers and onto the ground. And that was that. Keith: 1 Mascot: 0.

Overview: The Bonnies are currently 8-6 overall, 1-1 in the conference. Mark Schmidt continues to plod along in mediocrity, all the while cashing checks. If only we all could live such luxury. The Bonnies win a few games to get some momentum, then lose two in a row. They bounce back with another run, then lose again. Inconsistency, my dear friends, inconsistency. They did, however, beat Buffalo, the same Buffalo that destroyed this Flyers team. They also gave Illinois a run for their money on national TV. Throw in a head scratching loss to Arkansas State and you have your current ho-hum record.

St. Bonaventure has not been to the big dance since 2000, when JR Bremer (I HATED that guy), Peter Van Paasseen, and Patricio Prato led the Bonnies to a near upset of Kentucky. That was a LONG time ago. In fact, the Bonnies have only been to the NCAA Tournament that one time since 1981. That's bad. Wright State has been more times than that.

Meet and Greet: Who else are we going to start with? All-League, All-World, All-Awesome Andrew Nicholson is still around. While his sexy numbers from last year (20 and 7) have dropped off quite a bit, to a mere 14 and 6, he is still clearly the go-to guy for this Bonnies team. He is also averaging over a block a game and is still pissed about being passed over for POY last season, so look for him to bounce back come conference play IF, and that is a big if (notice the all caps?), he can stay out of foul trouble.

Junior Demetrius Conger is right behind Nicholson in points, throwing in just over 13 a game while grabbing 5 boards a tilt. The Bonnies are not all just big men though. Guards Matthew Wright and Eric Mosley help out with the scoring (8 points each) and dish the ball to those big guys. Those are the 4 players the Flyers will focus on, as they make up almost all of the team's scoring.

The Bonnies are not going to light up the scoreboard. They average just over 66 points a game which is good for 12th in the A14. Despite having Nicholson, they are 11th in the A14 in rebounds at 33 a game. In the rest of the pertinent categories, they are in the middle of the pack, which is classic St Bonaventure. 

 

The brothers at StatSheet tell us that the successful teams want to take make a good percentage of their shots, turn the ball over less, get some offensive rebounds, and get to the line often. If you do those things, you will win games. This episode of "Four Factors to Winning" is brought to you by Tim McCarver.

Prediction: The Flyers have won the last 9 vs. the Bonnies and are 11-3 since 2000. The Ivory Towers are setting the world on fire. As much shit as I give Matt Kavanaugh, I will say that he has...gulp...improved under the tutelage of Kid Yuma. Luke Fab will continue to shoot 3-pointers at a record pace and the Big Frog will continue to eat crepes and have sex with his socks on. But as we have known all year, this team goes as Kevin Dillard goes. And I expect Dillard to have another solid game vs. the Bonnies. Nicholson will get his double-double (18 and 12), but so will Dillard (22 and 11). Throw in Chris Johnson's 15 points Josh Parker's 10 points and Luke Fab's 13 and the Flyers cruise eek out a 85-62 85-72 72-68 win. PS...When I think of artists that make me want to go out and win a basketball game, Ellie Goulding (thank you Shazam!) would not crack my top 1,000 artists.

Thursday
Dec152011

Recon: Florida International University

Raise your hand if you have been giving hand jobs for free ever since the Flyers blew out the Crimson Tide of Alabama? OK, you all can put your hands down now. Are we not entertained with this Flyers team? Honestly, probably not. Remember last year (or two years ago) when I compared the Flyers to Barney Stinson's Crazy/Hot scale? Well this team for sure falls into Barnacle's reasoning. I want to say, "Have no fear, faithful readers! The shit sandwich that is the rest of the non-conference schedule will be a cake walk" but I think we all can agree that will not be the case. Thankfully though, Santa is throwing the Flyer Faithful an alley-oop before December 25th in the form of a JV squad, the Florida International University Panthers.

Overview: Quick! Where is the Florida International University located? Too late, it's located in Miami. Put aside the latino community, the Scarface wannabes, Miami Heat bandwagoners and you have a gorgeous campus. Actually, while looking at their Wikipedia page, I stumbled upon a picture of one of their frat houses. Look, I know I went to Miami and they are all about fraternities and sororities, and rightfully so if you have seen some of their houses. But be honest with yourself, if the frat houses at Dayton looked like this or this, you would be popping your collar and grabbing your ankles for a paddling in 2.2 seconds. Holy fuck!

Anyway, the Panthers are coached by Isiah Thomas. Yes, THEE Isiah Thomas. The same suicidal, probable closeted homosexual, worst team president/league commissioner of all time Isiah Thomas. Clearly FIU wanted to make a splash in the headlines and Isiah wanted to see some tanned men in speedos on South Beach. That is the only reasoning I can think of for this hiring. FIU was predicted to finish 5th in something called the east division of the Sun Belt Conference. The Panthers come to Dayton with a putrid 3-7 record, with those wins coming against George Mason, Coastal Carolina, and Stephen F Austin. FIU lost a close one vs Blackburn's Maryland Terps on Wednesday, so they should have some fresh legs with a few days off.

This team really doesn't do anything well...at all. They shoot terrible, they don't play defense, they can't rebound, and they turn the ball over a lot. The Flyers have a better field goal percentage (while scoring more points per game), out-rebound the Panthers, tun the ball over less to go along with more assists, and give up less points. That being said, as we saw on Sunday vs South Carolina Upstate (and the Crazy/Hot scale), you never know what is going to happen with the Flyers.

Meet and Greet: Another underwhelming opponent means the "Bear Minimum" treatment:

Numbers Game: "They've done statistics you know. 60% of the time, it works, everytime."

Prediction: Dayton should and will win this game. Will they win it going away? Probably. Expect DeJuan Wright to get his and the Flyers to struggle to score for spurts of the game. Have no fear. Editor's note: Apparently Wright might not play today because of a leg injury. Chris Johnson is clearly done with the white meat and has moved onto the juicier, more flavorful dark. He will get a double-double while Kevin Dillard will lead all scorers with 28 points. Dayton wins, 85-65. FIU also thinks that Xavier/UC ain't got shit on them.
Friday
Dec022011

Recon: Murray State University

Well that Buffalo game was fun, huh? I can't remember a bigger ass kicking than the one I watched on TV Wednesday night. While there have been times when Dayton was clearly out-played by its opponent, this game was a special kind of rape. As a friend of mine said, it was a butt fucking without the courtesy reach-around (what my grandfather used to call an "old-fashioned"). Dayton has a few days to put aside its worst home loss since the 1994-95 season and focus on welcoming the Murray State Racers to the Decibel Dungeon. Wait, what's that? Oh...apparently this is an away game for the Flyers. Who the fuck scheduled this game? I am kidding of course, but I do not kid when I say that there are probably A LOT of Flyer fans out there that will show up to the Arena on Sunday afternoon thinking the game is at UD Arena. Save the "Why are we playing at Murray State?" discussion for UDPride. As we will all soon find out, this Murray State team is for real.

Overview: The Murray State University Racers enter the game with an unblemished 8-0 record to go along with one of the more awesome looking logos in collegiate sport. Something about horse racing is just bad ass. Is it the alcoholism? The squandering of savings accounts? No one is sure. The Racers hail from Murray, Kentucky, a place that I will never be able to locate on a map. MSU, predicted to finish 3rd in the Ohio Valley Conference, are coming off an OVC regular season title/NIT berth from the previous season. The Racers have jumped out of the gate (word play!!!) to win eight games by an average of 14 points. They started out hot with wins of 27, 11, and 42 points (over Harris Stowe, guh!, Tennessee Temple, muh!, and Alaska-Anchorage, sha!) but have cooled down a bit due to increased competition. And by increased competition I mean teams with uniforms that match.

The Racers are shockingly good, ya know what I mean Vern? Ba da dum!And now, because you know you want it, some fun facts about Murray State. The Racers have two huge NCAA Tournament victories in their long history of organized basketball. In 1988, the #14 seeded Racers upset #3 seeded North Carolina State. The Racers would have to wait another twenty-two years until their next NCAA victory when as a #13 seed, they upset #4 seed Vanderbilt at the buzzer. As mentioned above, they made the NIT last year but lost in the first round, just like our Flyers. What's most important about Murray State is its most famous alumnus. Dayton likes to brag that Jon Gruden, Erma Bombeck, and Dan Patrick attended the UoD, but nothing compares to Jim Varney. I dare you, I FUCKING DARE YOU, to find a better movie (start to finish) than Ernest Scared Stupid. The fact that Jim died before winning an Oscar boggles my mind.

Meet and Greet: The Racers are coached by Steve Prohm, who is in his first year at the helm. Billy Kennedy left to go to Texas A&M after a 107-53 record at Murray State. As it was stated above, Prohm inherits a team that had a solid season last year. The Racers have a nice mix of veterans to go along with young talent.

Tied with Sam Cassel for ugliest NBA player ever.Everything starts and finishes with Isaiah Canaan. The 6'0" junior guard is averaging 20 points a game while shooting an insane 52% from the floor including an even sexier 49% from beyond the arc (25 for 51). Throw in a little 86% from the line, 3.5 assists, and 3.8 rebounds per game, this guy is probably going to LIGHT UP Dayton. Canaan can be a little sloppy with the rock but overall he rarely makes mistakes. After Canaan, seniors Donte Poole and Ivan Aska average almost 14 and 13 points per game respectively. Aska also leads the team in rebounds with 6 boards per game. Stacy Wilson and Zay Jackson are two freshmen that play decent minutes and will contribute mainly with defense and hustle. Neither will light up the scoreboard but both are capable of putting up some points as witnessed by Wilson scoring in double figures 3 times this season and Jackson once.

The Racers shoot well at 46% per game and 41% from the 3-point land. They struggle on the boards, only averaging 32 per game compared to Dayton's 36. They get to the line about 20 times a game where they shoot 79%. What they do really well, which could very well lead to Dayton's demise, is that they defend the 3-point shot extremely well. Opponents are only shooting 27% from beyond the arc. Former NBA "great" Popeye Jones and his creepy ears would be impressed with this defense.

Numbers Game: "People can come up with statistics to prove anything. 14% of people know that."

 

 

 

Prediction: This game is on a Sunday, at 2:00pm, during football season. MID-MAJOR BASKETBALL EVERYONE! I want to say that the Flyers should win this game, but as we have said a million times on the site, this team is a freaking crapshoot! On one hand, I see the Flyers bouncing back from the horrid Buffalo loss and taking it to the Racers in a 15 point win. On the other, I see the Flyers struggling from beyond the arc (AGAIN) and losing a closer-than-the-score-shows 11 point game. I'll go in the middle and pick the Racers to win 78-71 while holding Chris Johnson, Paul Williams, and Josh Parker to only two 3 pointers total. Sidenote, can we go back to having funny videos for our recons? Blackburn is trying to be too serious and it's rubbing me the wrong way. Remember that gem of a California Gurls parody that Secaur found? Let's go back to that shit! That being said, there is not much funny stuff about Murray State on Youtube, so I thought I'd put up a classic Scrubs reference. Do not make fun of Scrubs or I will sic Adam on you. Go ahead, ask Adam if he cries any time he hears Peter Gabriel's "Book of Love." The answer is, "Yes."

Tuesday
Mar082011

Recon: UMass

In an attempt to show our readers that we haven't totally stopped caring about the season, here is my lame ass recon for tonight's game. In honor of Timmy Wabs crushing it all season with his Top 10 Lists, here are my top 10 things that will be said on our site and UDPride tonight after Dayton's loss. Also, please note that we will again be hosting an NCAA Tournament Bracket Challenge. So save up your money.

10.) It will be shame to see such a talent leave Dayton. We will miss you CW! -UDPride

9.) Tman rims ass! -John

 

8.) This Dayton team was just four wins away from being an at large team. -John/UDPride

7.) The bubble is still weak, Dayton is not out of it. -Jerry Palm

6.) Brian Gregory needs to go to Texas Tech, since Pat Knight got fired. -UDPride

5.) UD should NOT go after Pat Knight. -Tom Blackburn

4.) Anthony Gurley's 27 and 13 tonight proved he was a well deserved 3rd teamer. -UDPride

3.) Why did Brian Gregory give the ball to CW AGAIN for the last shot? -Everyone

2.) Matt Kavanaugh's 0 minutes of play make me really excited about what he will do next year. -UDPride

1.) Winning the CBI is better than a one-and-down in the NCAA Tournament. -John R, UDPride

Thursday
Mar042010

Recon: Richmond (and You Thought Miami Was Preppy)

I tried to talk you guys into thinking we were underdogs last week in the worst recon you've ever seen until this one. The truth is we are now officially on the outside looking in for the first time all season. I'm about to tell you something that will rock your world. I actually got multiple anonymous emails about this, that I will not republish for fear of reprisal. Here we go. This game is a must win. WOW. I know right? Here's the kicker, we could win this game, the SLU game, and make it to the championship game of the A10, and still not make the tournament. Prepare for the worst and drink like the best. Lets get right into a detailed description of what we're about to see, regardless of validity.

How we got here: Richmond's rise to the top of the Atlantic Ten isn't surprising. A small school with under 3,000 kids, most of whom have little to no knowledge of the team, and once they graduate work at subpar mortgage firms in midtown Manhattan. Blackburn described the students at Richmond as, "cake eaters who prefer bong rips over college basketball." He forgot to mention the casual cocaine addiction and not so casual madras addiction. I have a lot of friends from Richmond, the type of people that are nice to me, but not nice to the maitre'd at Canal Bar (Ed Gein, anyone?). Anyway, the Spiders take orders from the same type of person they will after graduation, a Princeton grad.

Mooney: his bowel movements could outcoach BGChris Mooney has been the Richmond head coach since 2005 and is in the midst of his second twenty win season with the Spyders. Mooney runs a Princeton offense which is based on passing, movement, and the ability to drain the three from all five positions. On paper, Dayton's defense is built to defeat the Princeton offense (more like the Argyle offense...am I right guys?!!?); we constantly pressure the ball, defend passing lanes with a long, athletic team, and utilize our depth to keep fresh legs on the court. Since '07 "we" are 3-1 against Richmond and have held them to 37%, 40%, 55% (2008 loss), and 37% shooting. Clearly the magic number tomorrow will lie somewhere between 41% and.....54%! That's some crack analysis. Suck it, Doog. 

The Arachnia: One of the reasons Richmond has taken the game to the next level this season has been the health of Dan Geriot. Geriot took a medical redshirt last year after doing to his knee what's...

Errrrrrr (that's a record screeching sound, and not of the remix variety). O'B ingeniously disconnected the sprinkler system in his office building and then committed an act of arson yesterday. All in order to avoid writing this recon (we're struggling to maintain interest just like you). So from here out you'll get a mashup of inferior rambling from myself, Ollie, and the sterling prose of Mr. B., the man with Richmond love juice running down his chin.

I'm not sure where we were going with Geriot, as he's yet to make the impact that his freshman and sophomore years promised (remember, promises are just lies in the making). But after putting up 14 and 5.5 a half as a sophomore on 48% from the field and 40% from three, all thought he was on pace for an All A-10 career and a solid Spanish tenure where he played games twice a week, ate paella daily, and made his way through Spanish women like the Inquisition. Then his ACL popped and his statshave dropped across the board. Which is vexing as nobody was confusing him with Tyrus Thomas. Really, he was a rich man's Pop-A-Shot with superior ball skills. He was Pete Carril's wet dream, a big man with great range, passing ability, and well defined pecs. Now he's, more or less, a confused Kurt Huelsman.

Only Jordan Crawford stands in his wayKevin Anderson is the tiny little heart of the Spiders. He's what makes 'em go. He's the quickest guard in the league and will make a living in the paint. While, not a particularly adept distributor, the threat of him beating his defender leaves gaps for his teammates. He's getting 17.5 a game and does a great deal of his damage at the line, as he's prone to be fouled and, gasp, hits his foul shots like he's paid to (82%). He's not much of a threat from 3, but he'll still fire his fair share. While the Flyers PGs are reputed to be terrors on D, they've been exposed as dredlocked charlatans this season. They're apt to eat some poor, white PG's lunch, but are swinging gates against anyone with a head fake or a crossover. Look for Anderson to have a huge game as he did last season.

David Gonzalvez makes up the second half of the league's best backcourt. His numbers are down a bit from last year, but he's still a solid all around 2 guard. Offensively, he can shoot it a bit (44%/36%), is not afraid to grab a board (4.1), and plays some mean D. Like Anderson, he's grabbing nearly 2 steals a game. I don't know about you, but I'm ready for Gonzalvez to graduate and not because of his basketball, but because of the damned V in his last name. Is he too good to be a Gonzalez?

Justin Harper's continued development has been instrumental in Richmond's rise to glory. Coming into this season, Harper was expected to raise his game and match the hype he entered the Spider program with three years ago. He has done just that this season, scoring 11 points and grabbing 6 boards a game. Additionally, he is a superior defender, the type of player that fills in all the little holes no one else will. The same can be said of senior guard Ryan Butler. Mooney is on record claiming Butler as the best defensive player he has ever coached. I would expect that in the rare moments the Spiders aren't sitting in a zone chuckling amongst each other, Butler will be all up in Chris Johnson's business. Although not a great offensive player, Butler will fire away from the perimeter if left to his own devices. 

The Numbers Game"A good decision is based on knowledge and not on numbers."



PPGFG%FT%3P%RPGORPGDRPGAPGTPGSPGBPGFPG
Dayton UD 70.2 42.1 66.6 33.7 39.2 12.0 26.8 15.1 14.4 6.2 3.5 19.8
Richmond RICH 68.6 44.6 69.9 34.8 32.7 9.0 23.7 12.7 11.5 8.4 4.9 17.6
Dayton UD Opponents 61.6 39.2 64.6 31.2 32.7 10.1 22.6 11.0 14.2 5.9 3.3 18.8
Richmond RICH Opponents 60.8 39.0 70.4 28.4 37.6 13.1 24.4 9.9 15.7 5.4 3.4 17.9


Rest your worthless bones, your end is nighRichmond is the most efficient team UD will face this season, they never waste a possession. They play very heady basketball, take smart shots and protect the ball. Defensively, they are just as sound, allowing just over 60 points a game. The Spiders are sneaky athletic in the frontcourt. Although the backcourt deservedly gets much of the focus, Butler and Harper are vital to this team's success on the defensive end. The one downfall of this team has been in the rebounding department. Chris Mooney's team routinely gets outrebounded, an area the Flyers can hopefully capitalize on. 

Prediction: WE NEVER LOSE AT HOME...only on the road. If UD comes up short, they will end the year 4-7 on the road, just 2-6 in A-10 play. A roadie against a top-25 caliber team on Senior night? It's safe to say UD's chances are slim to none, and Slim just walked out of the building (my Uncle, the one who did time, used to say that. No clue what it means). Richmond's backcourt will likely be too much for UD to handle, and the fact that Richie excels on the defensive end does not bode well for the Flyers either. The Spiders are 3.5 point favorites, and I think that's giving UD too much credit.

It will be interesting to see what Gregory's mindset will be tonight. Will he stick to his guns, the strategy that has the Flyers sitting at 8-6 in the league, or press on with a different look -- perhaps increasing the minutes for UD's most valuable weapons. Although BG's gameplan is predicated on throwing as many fresh bodies at the opposition as possible, tonight's game would seem to be a rather opportune moment to change things up a bit. There is nothing left to lose, Dayton has painted itself into a corner. Might as well throw everything against the wall and see what, if anything, sticks.

Richmond wins this one, 67-60.

Sunday
Feb212010

Recon: Duquesne University

Even this idiot knows the dealLet’s keep this one simple and factual. Gem City’s finest have five games remaining. Three of those happen to be on the road, a scenario that hasn’t been kind to this program in the past. Two of those roadies are against Hexagonal beasts, Temple and Richmond. Let’s play devil’s advocate and assume that UD loses both of those ballgames, surely not an outlandish supposition in any sense of the word. Just by strictly looking at the loss column, that would bring UD’s total defeats on the season to a staggering six.

At 11-5 (which would mean a road victory against either the Owls or the Spiders), this team looks like, smells like, and acts like a legitimate tournament team. At 10-6 things get murkier than the toilet water at a bus station, but given the unrecognizable condition of college basketball I am still willing to suspend disbelief and hold onto the hope that a couple of wins in Atlantic City will seal the deal.

However, at 9-7 (picture me jabbing you in the chest with my pointer finger at this point) one has to believe that nothing short of a Atlantic Ten tournament championship will get the Flyers to the Dance. Now before you even contemplate dreaming up a creative scenario whereby a 9-7 Atlantic 10 team is a formidable candidate for the NCAA Tournament, ask yourself this: do you really want to live in a world that would allow a 9-7 Dayton squad into the tournament? Is that the kind of world you want to raise your children in? (As a side note, could you imagine a worse year to forward the idea of expanding the NCAA tournament to 96 teams? This season will always signify what an absolutely horrible idea that was. I realize our culture is increasingly intent on rewarding mediocrity, but there isn't an articulable argument to be made that would convince the majority of basketball fans that expansion to 96 would somehow improve the competitive spirit of the NCAA Tournament).

Don Donoher has had it up to here with this bullshitSo where does this leave us? In a sense, on the razor's edge. A loss to Duquesne means UD would have to sweep Temple and Richmond -- let's put those odds at somewhere around 15% -- to have any chance of an at-large bid (At least I think so, it seems that bubble teams keep losing and the bar keeps getting set lower and lower, so who knows what the future holds at this point). In sum, Sunday's game is a ...(deep breath)... MUST WIN!!!!!!!!!! Buckle up.

Overview. The Dukes are currently 5-7 in the league, but that’s sort of a deceiving indication of what kind of club they are. Certainly, UD fans are aware that Duquesne is capable of beating any team in the league on any given night. Although Duquesne was slated to take a step back this season (you don’t move on from a player like Aaron Jackson, you stay awake at night wondering if he is looking at the same star you are), they haven’t played to the level that most pundits expected. If not for Jason Duty's choke job from the foul-line at the end of the UD game, the Dukes would be 6-6 going up against a 6-5 Dayton squad for sole possession of seventh place in the A-10.

Meet and Greet. The buck stops with Damian Saunders. He currently leads the Atlantic Ten in minutes per game, rebounds per game, steals per game, and blocks per game. Throw in his fifteen points a contest and you have one of the most valuable and complete players in the conference. Saunders had 21 and 11 during his last time out against UD, playing 43 minutes in the overtime loss. Saunders puts in a man's day of work every time he steps on the floor, averaging an impressive 38 minutes a game this season. The only way he leaves the court is if he is in foul trouble or has an open, festering wound.

Saunders sleeps twenty minutes a dayForwards Bill Clark and B.J. Montiero round out the starting frontcourt for the Dukes. Clark has been really coming on during the back stretch of the conference schedule, scoring 34 against La Salle last weekend and 18 in DU’s upset victory over Charlotte on Wednesday. Montiero has been hot over the last few games as well, averaging just under fifteen points a game during the Dukes last three games. Clark and Montiero are probably Duquesne's best perimeter shooters, and they do decent work on the boards as well.

The Duquesne backcourt is led by sophomores Melquan Bolding and Eric Evans. Bolding is the epitome of streaky. Although he averages 12 points per outing, his scoring outputs are 18 point games sandwiched between 6 point performances. Evans is the team’s best Tweeter and does a pretty good soft shoe. Lest we forget Jason Duty, the Patron Saint of Missed Free-Throws, plays a significant role for this Dukes squad as well. Duty is having a horrible season shooting the ball, but has good hair -- and that, my friends, means everything.

Freshmen Sean Johnson and Rodrigo Peggau, and seven-foot sophomore Morakinyo Williams, pick up the pieces when they have to. Johnson was a fairly regarded recruit who has performed admirably in relief during the season (6 ppg, 43% from the field). Peggau is a swarthy Brazilian who dreams in 3-D, Williams is the Duke most likely to have eaten lion meat. 

The Numbers Game. A statistician is someone who is good with numbers, but lacks the personality to be an accountant.”



PPGFG%FT%3P%RPGORPGDRPGAPGTPGSPGBPGFPG
Dayton UD 70.3 42.0 66.2 32.8 39.0 12.1 26.5 14.8 14.4 6.4 3.5 19.5
Duquesne DUQ 69.5 42.0 60.8 25.9 38.6 13.1 25.5 13.7 14.7 7.9 4.8 18.8
Dayton UD Opponents 61.4 39.3 65.0 32.6 32.4 9.9 22.5 10.9 14.8 5.8 3.5 19.0
Duquesne DUQ Opponents 69.4 40.1 64.4 32.6 42.2 15.3 26.8 13.8 16.4 6.4 4.2 20.3

Statistically, there is not much separating these two teams. Both score around 70 points a game, rebound the ball fairly well and share the same exact shooting percentage. The numbers that are shocking to me are the rate at which the Dukes connect from the stripe and from behind the arc. Duquesne hits just 60% of its free-throws and a dismal 25% from three-point territory. You would think that a team that scores seventy points a contest would be fundamentally sound from the stripe and downtown, but that's just not the case with this team. Jason Duty is the team's best three-point shooter (33%) and Bill Clark is DU's most solid foul-shooter (73%).  Paul Williams would be considered a sharp-shooter on this team. Lastly, don't rub your eyes, the Dukes do in fact give up almost 16 offensive rebounds per game. Ghastly, ghoulish stuff.

Jason Duty, pray for usPrediction: The boys in the desert currently have your Flyers as five point favorites coming into this one, which seems a bit high considering the outcome from January and the fact that UD struggles on the road, but that's why sports books print money and your wife won't let you have a debit card.

I'm going to be honest for the first time in my life, I'm really worried about this one. Dayton is staring down the barrel at two losses and their play on the road is, to put it kindly, completely fucking abysmal. Duquesne should have taken the Flyers down when they were at the Arena, so you have to assume that the Dukes will come into the game playing with a lot of confidence, full of piss and vinegar. But the Dayton Flyers are the C students of college basketball, they do just enough to get by. The Dukes game will be no different.

The Flyers escape Pittsburgh with the win, 77-72. Marcus Johnson hits a big three pointer to give Dayton a three-point lead and Chris Johnson hits two free-throws to ice the game for UD. BG gets the necessary victory and turns his attention to the Temple game on Wendesday (does UD even go back to the Gem City, or does the team just head to Philly and lie in wait for the Owls?). Now the only question remains, can Gregory possibly use tainted cheese-steaks as an excuse for a loss twice in one season? I think BG has huge, sweltering balls, so I say yes. Stay tuned.

Wednesday
Feb172010

Recon: La Salle Agoraphobics

Charleston is a charming and welcoming city, unless you're Catholic. I was in Charleston, South Carolina this whole weekend, without access to a computer and this great interweb blog. The separation anxiety was crippling. Just my luck, Charleston was hit with six inches of snow (first major snowfall in twenty years, plus the city doesn't own any plows) and their public transportation is lackluster, so I had to drive everywhere thus hampering my drinking. Yet even as far away as South Carolina, the presence of our fair University was felt. First while walking down King Street, I looked into a bar to see the Dayton vs. UMass women's game was randomly on, I didn't even know they were televised. Then I ran into an old friend from Dayton who had moved to Charleston, whom I recognized only after seeing her get out of her car with a giant UNIVERSITY OF DAYTON sticker in the back. Then finally, while catching a drink, I asked the manager to put on the Dayton game, and it turned out his whole family went to Dayton. Small world.

Before I start to sound too much like Doog, lets get to the point of all this. I watched the first half of the SLU game, then with 12 minutes left in the second half, my girlfriend started playing with the, "We're on vacation, no more college basketball!" Not exactly surprising words from a George Washington Alum, but at least I understood that by going back to the house we were staying at, I could finally have some ice cold beers (Landshark for you kids playing at home). Also, I'm just whipped, which as you can tell is a running theme for the men of this blog. Anyway, after Dayton lost a game that I thought we would win, in double overtime no less, I made my feelings known to my girlfriend that it was her fault we lost because she didn't let me watch. Her response, "Whatever, You won't remember this in two weeks."

Crushing I know. Especially since she was right. I won't remember that I didn't see the end of the SLU game or what caused me to miss it, but what I and the selection committee will remember, is that once again UD lost a winnable game to a subpar conference opponent. Before the game, we told you there was no room for error and Dayton was walking on the razor thin line between the NIT and NCAA Tournament. Then we lost. Now where does that leave us? On an even more razor thin line? We're way past the point of having the confidence of assuming victory in any game and our next mistake will more likely be our last. Coming to town is a team as dangerous as any (though I'd consider UD vs. the BR bloggers dangerous at this point) and fighting for the right to make it to Atlantic City.

Dr. John is a personal friend of a blog. I have his digits.The Good Doctor is Coming to Town: Dr. John Giannini is bringing his La Salle Explorers to dreaded Blackburn Court with an 11-13 record (3-7 in conference) and a four game losing streak. Dr. John has been coaching the Explorers since 2005, though I don't remember how he got the job, and had the once proud program on an upward trend, until they started actually playing this year. On paper, La Salle was a dark horse for an A-10 title this year (VERY dark horse) coming off an 18-9 record in 2008-09 that saw 9 conference victories and returned their best player. Reading Blackburn's interview with HC Dr. John from this fall, you get the feeling that Dr. John's optimism is not only justified, but realistic (Also note that Donoher said Duquesne was a lock to finish top 4 in the conference in the comments section). Unfortunately, the season results have been deflating for the program.

La Salle scheduled a lot of top programs this season hoping to increase their RPI profile and cut their teeth of some of their young players, instead they got their teeth broken. They were mauled by the likes of Kansas, Villanova, Oklahoma State, and Binghamton. You read that correctly. The Explorers don't have anything closely resembling a quality win, their best win is over GW, and that was by one point. I'm not going to pretend that I've seen them play a single game this season, so instead of telling you its because they lack an inside/outside presence or a solid zone/man to man defense, let's just hit the stats.

Intermission: Top 5 Winter Olympics Events

1. Men's Short Track Speed Skating: Remember when you used to fight your brother or sister and chase them around the island in your kitchen? Ok, now imagine doing that as an adult, at a higher speed, on ice, with two extra people, and if you don't win your family and country with be ashamed of you and your arranged bride will leave you (only applies to Koreans). Easily the most exciting event in the Winter Olympics and our team is lead by one of our greatest Olympians of our generation (Apollo Ohno) with a fierce rivalry (S. Korea...not North, I know its confusing). What makes this sport so great is that it isn't based on the judges rating of your turns, posture, or anything subjective which ruins a lot of good sports. It's based solely on who wins the race, even if that means taking out the competition. Blackburn missed his true calling.

2. Hockey: It's already a very underrated sport in its professional form, its greatness is amplified in the Olympics. Not only is it the best hockey tournament in the world, but they play on a larger ice and with rules that are adjusted to encourage fast, open play with a lot of scoring and hitting. If I had any idea what was going on, it would be my number one sport.

3. Bobsledding: "Hey lets all fire bullets with humans attached and the first one to hit the wall loses?"

Obligatory Lindsey Vonn picture. God Bless America4. Snowboard Cross: Same idea as Short Track Speed skating but with four snowboarders going on an obstacle course while racing down hill. Unfortunately, it's already over, so lets move on.

5: Downhill: Men's or Women's, it doesn't matter. Watching the people skiing down a two smile stretch of ice at 70 miles an hour, constantly teetering on the verge of disaster. Sounds like a great time to me. They should have prop bets on whether or not the first fall will shatter cheek bones or rip a knee part.

Who To Watch: Rodney Green is La Salle's Alpha and Omega. He's played over 90% of La Salles total minutes and has accounts for 18.5 points (at a 40% clip), 5.5 rebounds, 4 assists, and a steal and a half per game. At 6'5", 210 points Green is a match up nightmare for any team in the A10, just ask Kansas after he dropped 19 on them in a losing effort. The only team that has been able to hold Green to single digits this season is Villanova and their talented backcourt. Don't expect that kind of success defensively against Green. He's going to be a problem from tip off to buzzer, let's just hope we can isolate him, and throw enough looks in front of him to limit his shooting percentage. Green is a do-it-all guard who would really benefit having another talented guard with him, unfortunately I'm not sure La Salle even has another guard on their roster.Rodney Green: A man to be feared.

The other headliner on the Explorers roster is top recruit Aaric Murray. A consensus top 50 recruit coming out of high school, Murray (6'10, 245) has a lot of God given talent and athleticism, but also has been given the curse of being aware of it. His offensive numbers have been outright erratic the entire season, giving some stinkers like 3 points and 4 boards in 33 minutes against Binghamton and 1-9 from three point range against Xavier, but has also flashed some brilliance, most notably dropping 19 points, 15 boards and 4 blocks against Richmond. Murray's hopes of being a one and done player have been dashed by his inconsistency, but after playing, and out playing, most of the A-10 this season, I'm sure he's going to be licking his chops coming into next season. It's going to be interesting to see how Dayton plays him defensively. He's too quick and athletic for Kurt and Searcy and probably too strong for Benson. He isn't capable of putting the Explorers on his back yet, but expect him to cause havoc when the Flyers are driving the lane.

The rest of the Explorers are a rag tag group of mediocrity and down right brutality. Dr. John is playing his most talented players, but they tend to be unathletic forwards who get chewed up by quick and long swingmen. Yves Mekongo Mbala, a senior forward from New Jersey, contributes a flat 11 ppg and 5 rpg, but would have trouble cracking a starting five on most A10 teams. Junior forward Jerrell Williams gives the Explorers 9 and 6 a game, doesn't shoot much but makes it when he does (46%). Finally, junior forward Steve Weingarten from Bodymore, Murderland has seen an increase in his minutes this season, but hasn't done much with it (4 ppg, 3 rpg). Green and Murray's supporting cast gives them almost nothing offensively or defensively and should be playing in the NAIA. That being said, we're probably going to go down to the wire with them.

Numbers: "Statistics are human beings with the tears wiped off."  - Paul Brodeur



PPGFG%FT%3P%RPGORPGDRPGAPGTPGSPGBPGFPG
La-salle LAS 71.6 45.2 68.3 36.8 38.9 13.9 25.0 13.8 16.1 6.2 4.8 17.3
Dayton UD 70.4 44.7 66.4 32.5 39.1 12.3 26.4 14.5 14.5 6.1 3.5 20.0
La-salle LAS Opponents 72.9 43.9 70.2 34.0 32.8 11.8 20.9 15.2 11.7 8.3 4.2 18.6
Dayton UD Opponents 61.8 39.6 65.2 33.3 32.0 9.6 22.4 11.0 14.7 5.9 3.4 19.1

According to these fancy numbers Blackburn gave me, we're a better team. How's that worked out for us so far? It's clear La Salle can rebound, and you'd hope so considering they play 4 forwards, but it'll be interesting to see if those are just because they are capable of padding their stats with 5 minutes left in a blow out, or if they'll be diving all over the place. If the Flyers fail to secure a sizeable lead early on the boards, this game might turn ugly.

Predictions and Lies: It's late in the day and I did not at all prepare for this recon, so let's make this quick. Dayton is favored by 11, and it's almost a joke to see that we're ever favored by more than one. Of course it's obvious isn't it? Dayton will crush La Salle because we NEVER LOSE AT HOME. Here's the thing, if this game is close down the stretch, La Salle has Rodney Green to take its shots, who does Dayton have? Whatever, let's just think happy thoughts. Dayton spends most of the game up 12 and in the final minutes La Salle gets some junk baskets to make it an 8 point win for the Flyers. Expect big nights from Wright and CJ because they will be running circles around the Explorers defense, but not much from Marcus because he'll be busy guarding Green. Rob Lowery drives to the hoop and is blocked 3 times, the third and final time ending with Aaric Murray spanking him in front of a confused crowd and a sexual aroused Brian Gregory. Donoher then says in the comments that he could have written this recon, and he's right.

Saturday
Feb132010

Reconnaissance: Fat Rick & The Mythical Creatures

Greek Mathematics

Baseball has more statistical categories than Tim's has dirty underage girls on a Thursday night.  One of my favorite stats in baseball is the pythag. It's an elegant stat that takes into account the amount of runs scored and runs allowed and predicts with shocking accuracy what your record should be. Any deviation from the expected number of wins is considered luck or "clutch-ness".

It's not quite as popular in basketball, but the rules (minor tinkering with the formula allowed) still apply. I added the Hollinger number in there (he tweaks the exponent) because some like his formula better.

For the geeks out there, the basketball formula is as follows:

 And the current statistics and projections:


By comparing the actual winning percentage to the pythags, this tells us who is playing over their head and who has been shafted. For instance, the scoring difference Dayton has enjoyed says they should be winning more than they have. Whereas Charlotte looks like it's got a world of hurt ahead of them. Does this mean Charlotte is bound to lose their next 5? No. Does it mean that the numbers believe Charlotte's got some regression ahead? Youbetcha.

I can understand any reluctance to believe in this stat (I thought it was bullshit originally, as well), but pythags are incredible predictors. My initial hesitation revolved around teams that get blown out. Rick's backside. You're welcome.Wouldn't lopsided games skew the numbers? Ultimately, no. Good teams don't get hammered. And if they do they make up for on some poor bottom dweller and don't allow it to happen again.

So what do these numbers tell us? It's safe to be a optimistic as a Flyer fan. Granted the 2 recent blowouts do throw things out of proportion a bit, but it also means we're a pretty good team. X and Charlotte were two of the better teams in the league.

Richie, Xavier, Temple, and UD appear to be the class of the conference with Rhode Island about a half step back. The numbers don't like Charlotte much. Saint Louis looks like a pretender. And as the beloved Hexagon made apparent, the rest of the conference is irrelevant (unless you're on the CBI selection committee).

The Billikens

As is anything near Rick Majerus's feet, it's hard to make out what the 2009-10 Saint Louis Billikens are. They've got some solid wins (Nebraska and Richmond), but also some bad losses (Bowling Green, George Washington, and were thrashed on their return trip to Richmond).

The Billikens objective is to play stalwart D. Everything else is secondary. But their defense is capable of winning them games. They're allowing only 61.7 points a game in conference (Dayton is at 61.6) and lead the nation in fewest 3 pointers allowed (76) and lowest 3 point % allowed (26.6%). Total field goal % is just as solid at 38.8%.

UD's own hottie, Candace ('06, I believe).But for however stout their defense may be, their offense is equally anemic. They're last in the conference in scoring at 63 a game (I'm not counting Fordham anymore. They're like an NAIA team that snuck into the conference when nobody was looking). They shoot poorly from everywhere, 43%/60%/32%. They're going to try to drag you into the mud with them.

They're led by a duo of sophomores and a dirty Australian. Those three are Kwamain Mitchell, Willie Reid, and Cody Ellis. The three account for 63% of the scoring and 49% of the rebounding.

Mitchell's your typical shoot-first lead guard. He's going to be hoisting all afternoon. He's averaging over 13 shots a game and hits on 45% and 32% of his shots. He is flammable, though. He's got 5 games of 20 points or more and has a 33 point game as well. He doesn't create for his teammates all that well (2.9 assists per) or take care of the ball like the precious gem it is (2.3 TOs per). He's the key cog for the Billiken offense which makes him akin to the smartest kid in your remedial math class.

Willie Reid's the type of player any coach in the A-10 would beg and plead for (they did, it's called recruiting). He's a tall, rangy, active big man. He's second on the team in scoring (12.2) and leads them in rebounding (8.3) and blocked shots (2). He shoots it at a nice clip as well (55%), but primarily because he doesn't venture too far from the paint. He's pretty raw offensively and I think the Big Dog and Kurt should have little trouble neutralizing him. In fact, he reminds me of Devin with the talent meter turned up a notch.

Ellis is a fine player. Lots of folks like to say the team really took a step forward since he arrived, though the numbers don't necessarily bare it out. He's a 6'8" 240 lb. marksmen (40% from 3). He rebounds a bit (5.9 a game), but for the most part he's going to do his best Luke Fabby impression (64% of his shots are from deep). He didn't become eligible until recently due to a scandal involving marsupials, Vegemite, and a hotel room jacuzzi. Did I mention he's Australian?

Jemaine: Let me finish. I'm a person. Bret's a person. You're a person. That person over there is a person. And each person deserves to be treated like a person.
Sinjay: That's a great speech. Too bad New Zealanders are a bunch of cocky a-holes descended from criminals and retarded monkeys.
Jemaine: No, you're thinking of Australians.
Bret: Yea, that's Australians.

The only other player of consequence on the Billiken roster is Brian Cardinal's illegitimate son, Brian Conklin. He's the heady white guy who's going to scrap for every loose ball and in general ruin your afternoon. He's about as talented as the any guy at your average pick-up game, but he's 6'6" and plays with the fury of a hurricane. He will take at least one charge this afternoon. You can book that.

Everyone is lying to you. Take solace in these beautiful numbers.



PPGFG%FT%3P%RPGORPGDRPGAPGTPGSPGBPGFPG
Dayton UD 70.7 44.6 67.1 33.3 38.9 12.4 26.0 14.8 14.4 6.1 3.6 20.0
Saint-louis SLU 63.2 43.4 60.6 31.9 34.4 10.2 24.2 12.0 13.7 6.1 5.1 17.5
Dayton UD Opponents 61.5 39.6 65.4 32.8 32.0 9.8 22.2 11.0 14.8 5.8 3.3 19.2
Saint-louis SLU Opponents 59.0 38.7 70.2 26.2 36.0 12.3 23.7 9.7 14.4 6.0 3.2 18.7


Prediction: Majerus has already told the media he thinks Saint Louis can hang with us because he's committed to 40 minutes of zone (novel idea). If we don't fall in love with the three, get out and score at least 15 points in transition and do our typical work on the glass, I think we win by double digits. After the game, in fit of rage, Majerus confuses a student manager for food and swallows him whole.

Friday
Feb052010

Recon: Xavier University 

WHAMMY!!There are circumstances out of your control which dictate your lot in life. You are born to a single mother in Roxbury, Mass.? Well, you are pretty much fucked. It's not your fault, but you are still completely and hopelessly fucked. Likewise, being born on the Upper West Side to Jewish doctors likely guarantees that you and pocket squares will not be complete strangers. You did nothing to earn a life of 500 thread-count sheets, but there you are anyway. In a way, life is basically a colossal, mostly untelevised, game of Press Your Luck.  

For those of you who were not allowed to watch TV at a young age because your parents were afraid of exposing you to Jim J. Bullock and minority culture, Press Your Luck was the game show that featured “whammies” (little red creatures that looked like aborted fetuses which would appear on the TV screen whenever a player’s spin landed on a predetermined “whammie” space). Quoting the infallible Wikipedia, “contestants collected "spins" by answering trivia questions and then used the spins on an 18-space game board full of cash and prizes. The person who amassed the most in cash and prizes at the end of the game won.” It was a basically a mindless game show that helped housewives pass time while they wondered why they couldn't have married a guy like Harry Hamlin.

Dunphy's got all the spinsAlthough there was little to no strategy involved in Press Your Luck, perhaps serving as a precursor to game shows that were based on people picking random suitcases or monitoring people’s heart rates, there were some maneuvers to be made during the latter portion of the show. Players could pass their spins onto their opponents, thereby forcing their competition to spin and risk landing on a whammie. To put it simply, the more spins a contestant earned during the trivia portion of the show, the more pressure they could put on their opponents during the wheel-spinning section of the program.

This is what the upper-tier of the conference (X, Temple, Richie, Rhody, and Charlotte) have done to the rest of the league. (Xavier would be notorious contestant/”cheater” Michael Larson, as the Musketeers seem to have everything figured out before they even step on the stage. Larson was an idiot savant who figured out the board patterns and was able to bilk the show out of over $100,000. An under appreciated genius if there ever was one). The top teams in the league have been able to avoid whammies. The U of D? Not so much. After having already suffered three losses, the Flyers have built themselves quite a hole. The Xavier game? Excusable. Defeats at the hands of Rhode Island and St. Joey's? Complete and utter whammies. For those of you that don't think tomorrow's game is a "must-win," think again. How you could fool yourself into thinking that a 4-4 Dayton squad could close out the year going 8-0 or 7-1 is beyond me. If UD loses to Xavier on Saturday, the attention immediately shifts to Atlantic City, where the Flyers can be reborn (theoretically, of course).

Beating a dead horse, burying it, digging up its corpse and beating it again. Received this email from Donald Donoher the day after the UD/Rhody tilt. As with everything he writes on this site, it is unedited and in its original form:

So my parents sit next to a scout for an NBA team every now and then at the UDgames.  I can't tell you the name of the team because I don't want to get this guy in trouble.  However, he works for a Western Conference team and covers the Midwest college teams (he lives in Louisville).  He talks to my dad about random shit.  My dad is obsessed with Shaq and asks him every game if the Cavs will win it all and the answer is always, "No, he is too old."  Anyway, this scout says that Chris Wright is no longer on his radar, but instead is now focusing on Chris Johnson.  In what should make Swampy Meadows drool, the scout says that Chris Wright DOES have the skills to be an NBA player, but does not put them together and therefore, couldn't cut it right now.  The scout says that Chris Johnson is very high on his list, and if he has the same type of year next year as he is having this year, he could find himself on a lot of draft boards.

You can tell it's a Donoher email because he begins with the word "so." Anyway, here’s what you should take away from this passage: Not that Kountry Chris is ill-prepared for an early jump to the league, that’s been affirmed repeatedly.  Instead, try wrapping your head around what unspeakable sins this scout must have committed in a previous life to wind up scouting a Dayton/Rhode Island game for pro prospects. Here is what every e-mail from this scout to his superiors must look like:

Dear Sir: As I have been telling you for close to two decades now, there are no professional prospects at the University of Dayton. If you send me to Dayton one more time I will drive to your fucking house and light myself on fire as your children look on in horror. Also, you will soon be hearing details about some illicit activities involving myself and highway restrooms. Just wanted to give you a heads up.  Yours in Christ, Scouty McScoutsalot.

Meet and Greet. Jordan Crawford needs a name change. Jordan Crawford is either the name of a hot girl who sneaks diet pills, or a closeted lacrosse player that goes to prep school like St. Mark's or Andover. It is not a name befitting the A10's best player. Because I am a sucker for alliteration (and due to the fact that I was watching a Knicks game while I wrote this), I would propose "Clyde." Clyde Crawford. Or maybe Cookie. Cookie Crawford.

Crawford’s dubious reputation has been discussed at length on this site, and our verdict is… not guilty. The numbers tell the tale: 20 points, five boards and three assists per game. His percentages are equally impressive: 45%-41%-78%. Although there is certainly some credence to the criticism over his shot selection, Clyde puts it all on the line when it matters most. His shots down the stretch against Dayton sealed the deal and proved a point, which is, Crawford is a psychotic basketball player. That’s not to say that he will eat his opponents’ face while battling for a rebound, he is just not wired like most players. Crawford is one of those rare talents that will actually raise his game when the pressure is highest. And yes, he is only a sophomore. I rarely give a verbal taint-job as blatant as this, but Crawford’s play has more than matched the hype.

Terrell Holloway continues to struggle with his outside shot, but his foul-shooting and protection of the ball make him an invaluable asset for the Muskies. Holloway comes into Saturday’s game shooting 86% from the line and with a 2.4:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. If Crawford’s shots pushed Xavier past UD three weeks ago, Holloway’s 13-of-14 from the stripe kept X in the game when the offensive was lacking. Holloway’s controlled attack set the stage for Xavier’s half-court offense.

The unsung hero of the last matchup between these two programs was Dante’ Jackson. Dayton threw everything but the kitchen sink at Crawford back in January, begging someone else to beat them on the offensive end. Jackson essentially said, “If you insist.” The Catholic Church would have been proud of the way Xavier played against UD in Cincinnati, as the Musketeers repeatedly penetrated deep into UD’s defense only to pull it out at the last second. Jackson was the benefactor of many kick outs to the perimeter, finishing the contest with 19 points (including five three-pointers). Obviously, BG and Co. will emphasize closing down on the perimeter, as they were repeatedly burned during the first contest. You can throw Brad Redford into the discussion too, as his game is stationed around the arc as well. We already know the deal with Redford, he will hit a three or two during the game and nod at Paul Williams after doing so. He will not cause opposing coaches to have sleepless nights.  

Asian barber: "You want the one on the left or right?"Everyone knows that I have a soft spot for X’s Kenny Frease, and the big man is starting to produce, albeit sparingly. Frease had a 13/12 night against Duquesne, and registered a 14/8 against the hapless Fordham Rams. The real man to watch down low is Jason Love. Love is as predictable as an Asian man’s haircut (you got either the “Moe Howard” or the “Spike”), mark him down for 10 points and 9 rebounds and don’t tell your mother we had this talk. Although Jamel McLean had a rather quiet game against UD the first time around (2 points, 3 rebounds), I’d expect we hear his name more frequently on Saturday. McLean is averaging 14 and 7 over the past four games and is looking forward to being matched up with Luke Fabrizius again.

Mark Lyons was banged up and played sparingly against the Flyers in Round One. He has a decent outside stoke but focuses his attention on getting people the ball (specifically guys named Crawford) and playing defense. Andrew Taylor will play, make no mistake about it. He reminds me of ex-UDer Teddy Fitz. If I had to put money on it, and because of my gambling addiction I do, I’d wager that Taylor ends up in local government and cheats on his fat wife with a Hispanic woman. You can just see it in his eyes, he looks like the type.

The Numbers Game. "Torture numbers, and they'll confess to anything." 



PPGFG%FT%3P%RPGORPGDRPGAPGTPGSPGBPGFPG
Xavier XU 80.1 47.0 70.5 39.7 39.1 11.6 27.5 14.7 12.8 6.6 4.3 19.2
Dayton UD 69.5 43.9 67.2 32.5 38.5 12.4 25.6 14.8 14.5 6.0 3.5 19.8
Xavier XU Opponents 68.2 40.4 64.7 27.8 35.9 12.1 23.3 12.9 13.3 6.6 4.8 20.9
Dayton UD Opponents 62.0 40.4 64.9 33.3 32.3 9.9 22.4 11.2 14.9 5.9 3.4 19.1

 Next Level Johnson is on boardThe numbers seem to jump off the screen and slap you in the face, the Xavier Musketeers are a very efficient offensive unit. They have scored under 75 points just twice during conference play, 68 against La Salle (a win), and 72 against Tempe (a loss). Xavier leads the conference in scoring and three-point percentage, second in field goal percentage and rebounding. Xavier has its problems defensively, allowing almost seventy points a game. As in Cincinnati three weeks ago, UD must be able to keep up with Xavier offensively to win this one. Dayton's defense will not slow down the Xavier attack as evidenced by the 78 points in allowed in Round One (and that was with Jordan Crawford only logging 24 minutes due to foul trouble).

PredictionVegas likes the Flyers by a point, which essentially makes it a pick-em  (On a non-basketball note, I'm completely offput by the planned "whiteout." It's got that Notre Dame green jersey vibe written all over it -- which almost always results in a L. Why set yourself up for failure like this? I'm just picturing a lot of white shirts thrown on the court after Crawford nails a 20-footer to win the game. The Administration is creating a recipe for disaster).

Marcus Johnson plays his best game of the season, scoring 17 points to lead the way for the Flyers. Chris Wright has a solid game, let's put him down for 13 and 11. Jordan Crawford stays out of foul trouble and goes for 22 points, but it's not enough. UD lives to fight another day, pulling out a 73-70 victory in the Gem City. This will all be rendered moot after back-to-back losses to Charlotte and St. Louis, so let's all enjoy it while we can. Regardless, if there isn't a giant bonfire in the Ghetto, filled with white t-shirts, we will all be very disappointed.

Friday
Jan292010

Recon: St. Bonaventure University

Ironically enough, both squads are coming into this game having their last two contests decided by a combined two points.  UD, as we all know, is on the losing side of both of those battles, dropping a 60-59 decision at St. Joes and a 65-64 loss to URI at UD Arena.  The Bonnies had a little more LUCK on their side, with a 70-69 victory at UMass before dropping a similar 70-69 contest at Duquesne.  I hope you picked up on the foreshadowing that I did there with the fully capitalized luck.  That is the answer to the Flyers’ woes of late.  It has nothing to do with BG being a good or bad coach, it has nothing to do with “our” inability to have a half court offense, it has nothing to do with For-three-zius’ injury, it has everything to do with luck.

I remember reading an article around March Madness time last year by Josh Levin on Slate.com.  He referenced a ranking system created by Ken Pomeroy that ranks every NCAA Men’s Basketball team based on how lucky or unlucky they are.  The 2008-2009 Flyers ended the season ranked as the 5th luckiest team in the country, having five wins by 2 or less points.  The 2009-2010 Flyers have had a reversal of luck and are currently the 322nd luckiest team in NCAA Men’s Basketball, having dropped three games by 2 points or less.  As Mr. Levin points out in his article, the breaks even out and it seems like the breaks that would have gone the ’08-’09 Flyers way are not for the ’09-’10 squad.

With that being said, let’s take a look at this match up at the Reilly Center.  The Flyers enter this game having won the last seven regular season contests against the Bonnies, with the last loss coming on February 3rd, 2002 at UD.  As I predicted in The Rodeo, the UD vs. URI game would be a high scoring affair (which it somewhat was), this too will be a game focused on offense.  Both teams come into the match up averaging roughly 70 points per game.  The Flyers are led by Chris Wright who is averaging 16 points and 8 rebounds over the dreadful 1-of-4 streak.  If anyone has any information on the whereabouts of Rob Lowery and Paul Williams, please notify Brian Gregory at (937) 229-4454.  It is crucial that the Flyers start getting more contributions from their bench or at least not as many bad shots.

Normally an up-tempo game is the focus for the Flyers, but not necessarily in this match up.  With a Bonnies team that is lead by the big man, Andrew Nicholson, they can put ‘em up in a hurry.  As a wise man wrote in The Rodeo last week, Nicholson is coming off of a huge week with 55 points and 14 boards between two games.  Look for the Bonnies to go inside early and often to the 6’9" sophomore.  But don’t over commit on defense, Flyers, because Nicholson has 3 kick out options between Jonathan Hall (12.1 ppg, 55% fg), Chris Matthews (Host of MSNBC’s Hardball), and Michael Davenport (9.1 ppg, 47% fg).

With similar offensive outputs, the focus is turned to defense.  Despite the fact that Chris Wright does not know how to close out on a shooter putting up a game winning three, the edge goes to the Flyers.  The Flyers enter Saturday’s game allowing only 62.2 PPG compared to the Bonnies 68.8 PPG.

Numbers Game. "Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital."



PPGFG%FT%3P%RPGORPGDRPGAPGTPGSPGBPGFPG
Dayton UD 69.2 43.8 66.7 32.0 38.1 12.4 25.2 14.8 14.5 6.2 3.4 19.9
St-bonaventure BONA 70.8 48.1 66.2 30.7 34.8 10.6 24.3 15.3 15.3 5.6 4.0 18.3
Dayton UD Opponents 62.2 40.6 65.7 34.0 32.5 9.8 22.6 11.3 15.2 5.7 3.4 18.9
St-bonaventure BONA Opponents 68.8 44.1 65.0 35.6 32.6 10.8 21.8 12.8 14.4 7.3 3.1 17.8


Prediction

Despite the fact that UD is 3-4 on the road this season and that St. Bonaventure boasts a 6-2 home record, I think that the flyers will snap out of this current funk that they are in.  I am going with the wishful thinking approach that CJ will return to early season form, Rob will take a couple more intelligent shots, and that Kurt will post up another near double-double performance.  Ahhh I can't even trick myself into believe the last part, but the first two are hopefully very possible.  Expect a high flying and high scoring affair with the Flyers taking home the W, 76-71.  For the sake of our reader’s sanity, please Flyers, do not fuck this up. 

Again, if anyone has ANY information on the whereabouts of Rob Lowery and/or Paul Williams, please call (937) 229-4454.