Ronald Roberts' Windmill v. Dayton

For those of you that have asked, here's Ronald Roberts' dunk from last night. Find your safe place.

Recon: St. Joseph's

Two questions have controlled the recent debate over this season’s Gem City Cager program: (1) Is Dayton this good and (2) can they keep this up? 

I don’t know, you don’t know. No one knows. 

Certainly no one could have foreseen a 14-5 record at this point in the year. After the back-to-back shellackings against Buffalo and Murray State, it appeared the Flyers were in the firm clutches of a slow and onerous rebuilding year (the performances against USC-Upstate and UIC weren’t exactly encouraging either). If you are like me, you were probably resolved to writing term papers for Jevon Thomas, ensuring his arrival for next year’s promising season. 

Fast forward to today. Dayton doesn’t have to salt the earth in order to clinch a NCAA bid, merely holding serve and winning the games they should probably seals the deal. 

Here are five things, because that’s a nice prime number, which cannot transpire over the next six weeks:  

• The Flyers fail to win on the road which, until proven otherwise, is still an issue for this program. UD is going to have to win a game or two away from the Arena to solidify their postseason status. The Cagers still have roadies at St. Joe’s, Saint Louis, Fordham, Xavier, Duquesne and Richmond. That’s fairly tough sledding, but the Flyers must squeeze some wins out of that six-game slate.

• Tired legs (especially for Dillard) catch up with a very thin roster; an injury at this point, however prolonged, would be the tipping point. Archie has done his best to get his key guys rest during games, a more significant obstacle since Benson’s injury, with even Ralph Hill assigned some spot duty. Of course this means the UD bigs have to avoid foul-trouble at all costs as well.
   
• Chris Johnson remains in a fog. CJ has been fairly inactive since the New Year and downright absent since returning from his concussion. Johnson was the key performer in UD’s wins over Bama and Ole Miss; the Flyers absolutely need his production to keep the ball rolling.  

• Boof, Parker, Fab come back down to earth. The Flyers have enjoyed their recent success primarily due to this particular trio’s effective offensive play. Parker has played his best basketball in a UD uniform over the past few games and Kavanaugh’s consistent play has been paramount to Dayton’s success this year. LuKKKe remains LuKKKe, an asset when he’s hitting bombs, an absolute liability when he’s cold. However, his flops are an always entertaining portion of any Flyer game, so let’s not just dismiss his intangibles altogether.  

• Perimeter shooting hits a flat. Heading into tonight’s game, the Flyers have been hitting 41% of their three-point attempts in conference play – tops in the league. The improved three-point shooting is a recent and timely development, as the majority of Dayton’s three-point shooters are, overall, hitting a lower percentage of threes than they did last season. UD is basically on a phenomenal run at the moment, riding a hot streak from behind the arc.
   

 

The Flyers, as of now, have excellent indicators, a solid RPI and SOS. They’ve racked up 8 wins over the RPI top 100, five over the top 50. While there is plenty of road to travel, UD has established itself as a tournament team at the midway point of the season. A win tonight, away from the Gem City, would cleary beef up their cause.  

Overview: St. Joe’s, a dark horse pick to finish in the top four of the league this season, are mired in a rather ill-timed slump, losing five of their last seven games after a promising start to the season. SJU is currently 2-3 in the Atlantic Ten, with wins over Duquesne and Fordham. Martelli did manage to beat Brian Gregory and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets by thirteen points, old habits are hard to break.   

Like the Flyers, the Hawks have a very thin roster. They are also the fourth youngest team in the nation with no seniors and just a combined eight years of collegiate playing experience. In sum, St. Joe’s is probably another season away from seriously contending in the Atlantic Ten.  

Meet and Greet: CJ Aiken is a monster. He has the freakish ability to block and alter shots yet not draw fouls. He has committed just 30 fouls in 20 games this season (1.5 per game, you’re welcome). The sophomore has increased his scoring output and rebounding, becoming a legitimate threat on both ends of the floor. The Aiken/Kavanaugh matchup is loaded with sexy intrigue. This will be a real stern test for Boof, who is enjoying one of the most unlikely comeback stories since Donny Wahlberg’s star turn on Blue Bloods.

Joining Aiken in the starting frontcourt are Halil Kanacevic and Daryus Quarles. Kanacevic is a 6’8” transfer from Hostra where he was named the CAA’s Freshman of the Year before transferring to Hawk Hill. Kanacevic has been a solid addition, scoring eight points a game and leading Martelli’s club in rebounds (6.9 rpg) and assists (3.4 apg). Qualres, a prototypical garbage man, is basically a sixth man, who starts for some reason.

The Hawk’s backcourt, Langston Galloway and Carl Jones, is a silent killer, one of the most under-the-radar units in the country. Galloway is following up his standout freshman season with an even better sophomore campaign. The 6’2” guard is averaging seventeen points a game and five assists. Galloway is absolutely deadly from the outside, hitting on 51% of his three-point attempts this season, good enough for second in the nation. He is coming off his best scoring outing in his young career, dropping 32 points this past weekend in the loss to Penn. It’s the third time Galloway has scored 30 or more this season.  

The diminutive Jones (17 ppg, 3.5 apg, 3.5 rpg) is a beast off the dribble and currently tied with Temple’s Ramone Moore as the league’s top scorer. Jones v. Dillard is the other key matchup to follow. An ankle injury has slowed Jones down as of late, he reaggravated it this weekend against Penn, but he is expected to log major minutes tonight.

Ronald Roberts, Chris Wilson and Papa Ndao highlight the St. Joe’s reserves. Roberts, one of the top sixth men in the conference, is scoring ten points a game and grabbing around six rebounds as well. Ndao originally signed with Boston College but was “released” from his commitment and enrolled at SJU last January. Wilson backs up Jones and Galloway.  

Prediction: Still don’t trust UD away from the Arena, and there is of course the letdown factor after coming off an emotional win against Xavier. The Joeys opened up as five point favorites. I like UD to cover, but lose outright. The key in my mind is Kavanaugh, if he produces Dayton prevails.