Inside the Blogger's Studio: XU Blogger

Let's get it on!  The Atlantic 14...err...12 Tournament has started and up next for our beloved Dayton Flyers are the dreaded Xavier Musketeers.  As you all are hopefully aware of already (seriously, if you aren't, just leave), Dayton and X split their two games this past season.  I don't feel like looking it up, but this has to be the 50th year in a row that Dayton and X will play for the third time in a season. To help us preview this heavyweight showdown is XU Blogger (who again wanted to remain anonymous so we will call him Max Power) of A Fan's Note on Xavier Basketball.  Max is currently waiting in line for tickets to Chad Ochocinco's first Dancing with the Stars rehearsal but thankfully took the time to answer my questions.

Donald: First question, how many people has J. Craw killed since he was not named the Atlantic 14 Player of the Year?  In all seriousness, the guy is so money he doesn't even know (although he probably knows). What odds would you set for him to return to the Queen City next year?

Max: I was pretty shocked that the coaches gave the award to Kevin Anderson.  Kevin is a nice player, definitely elevates his team, but tough for me to accept that he's been better than Crawford, especially when you limit the analysis to conference games only.  As for returning, the cost/benefit ratio might weigh in favor of staying.  His brother didn't exactly have a good first experience with the NBA, he projects as a low second-rounder on most of the mock drafts, he would get his degree next May, and from what I understand this draft class may be especially strong due to the threat of an impending lockout. On the other hand, he'll be 22 this year, he's been jerked around by two college coaches, maybe Skyline gives him the runs.  I'd say it's better than 50/50 he comes back for one more season.

Donald: So I think Dayton could use some advice.  How does a team lose three 1,000 point scorers, their coach, and a deep bench and yet still finish 2nd place in a deep conference?

Richmond's home away from home.Max: I suppose it's a combination of a lot of things.  Miller didn't exactly leave the cupboard bare, talent-wise. Hiring Mack from within maintained stylistic and organizational continuity. Some of the returning players may not have played a lot of minutes last year, but have the experience of playing in tough buildings and in games with a lot at stake.  The players seem to have a very tough mindset and rarely get flustered when things go wrong (the UD game being the lone exception since the new year).

Donald: Dayton played XU tough back in January at the Cintas Center and then destroyed the Muskies a few weeks later in Dayton. Granted, the UD faithful is extremely optimistic about how Dayton matches up against X, but in your mind, is this a bad matchup for you guys? In my mind (I like to think I am one of the more realistic fans out there), Dayton is the worst matchup for X because of Dayton's tendency.

Max: Yes.  I think Dayton is the toughest matchup in the league for XU because of the quickness and athleticism of their 3s and 4s.  I think Jamel McLean is capable (emphasis on "capable") of neutralizing Chris Wright, but XU doesn't really have anyone that can guard Marcus Johnson and Chris Johnson on the wings.  Crawford isn't much of a defender, Lyons is too small, and Dante Jackson goes through periods where he forgets there's a game of basketball being played.  This was probably my doomsday quarterfinal matchup because there's no fatigue advantage for the better seed, Dayton on paper has enough talent to be a top-4 team in the conference, and Dayton's quickness is a serious issue.

Donald: Let's say Dayton does beat XU here in the tournament.  What seed do you think the Musketeers will get in the NCAA Tournament. Subquestion, how far do you see this team going?

Max: I have a theory that the tournament selection committee is likely to penalize teams that are locks going into their conference tournaments and lose early.  I see XU's ceiling as a 5-seed and floor as a 7-seed.  Tournament performance depends on matchups.  They could get drilled by a team like Utah State in the first round or wriggle their way to the Elite Eight again.  No clue how that will shake out, and I don't really have an expectation or strong feeling either way.

Donald: Seriously, will Kenny Frease ever be any good?  In a previous interview you said you "expect Frease to be a consistent double-double threat next year."  Care to change that quote before it comes back to haunt you?

Max: Ha.  At the risk of earning a coveted "Shithouse Rat Comment" award, I'm going to stand by it. But he's got to commit himself this offseason to improving his conditioning and attending the big man camps.

Donald: Final question, who wins this game.  And lastly, who is going to take home the A-14 title, how many A-14 teams will get to the big dance, and give us your Final Four picks right now.

Max: I think it's a repeat of the 2007 and 2008 tournaments.  XU defeats Dayton in the quarterfinal (this time by 6-8 points) and then puts forth a subpar performance the next night and loses to Richmond.  I think the game at Dayton was a total one-off, the Muskies got flustered due to the early foul trouble, actually had it down to 9 or 10 with the ball with about 9 minutes left, and then got boatraced from there.  With that said, these are pretty evenly matched squads and Dayton is more than capable of advancing.

Bring 'Em Young in the Final FourI really like Richmond and think they run the table in AC.  They are a veteran guards are currency at this time of year, when there's no time to make coaching adjustments and everyone is dragging ass.  The A-10 gets four teams in the tournament.  The three locks plus one bubble team.  Dayton can jump URI, but I think it would take two wins plus URI taking a complete dump against SLU.  If the two are close, Rhody's win up there has to be the tiebreaker.

As for the Final four, I barely follow the big conferences in early March because I'm too busy celebrating the Anthony Johnsons and Omar Samhans of the world.  I'll go with Kansas, Ohio State, Syracuse, and Kansas State.  My dark horse candidates for the Final Four are Baylor (big conference) and Brigham Young (small conference).

There you have it, straight from Max Powers' mouth.  Should be a good game and true story, this is a MUST WIN for Dayton.  Let's get our swag back.