Handsome Joe, still suckling from the A-10 teetSeven days have passed since we were first dropped blindly into the Hexagon. Although none of the six teams have reached a positive or negative critical mass, there is a slightly clearer picture of where the conference chips will fall.  No team has done itself enough disserve to earn dismissal from the six-sided circle. We are probably a week or so away from officially eliminating anyone from hexagonal competition. The most likely candidate? Regrettably, I think we all know the answer to that one.

Handsome Joe’s brackets came out earlier today, and the A-10, according to the King Bracketologist, still has six bids on the board (Charlotte’s hold appears to be the most feeble). I still think that four is a more plausible number, five being a stretch. Let’s quickly take a glimpse at last week’s winners and losers before diving back into the Hexagon.

Winners

• Out of any team in the conference, Richmond helped itself the most over the past week. Two victories, roadies against Saint Bonaventure and Rhode Island, catapulted the Spiders up to their rightful spot at the top of the league. 
• In one of its last remaining tests, Temple, led by mystery man Michael Eric, disposed of Rhode Island in its only game last week. 
• Xavier took a trip down to Gainesville and won one for the league, beating the Gators and earning some respect for the Atlantic Ten.

Losers

• Rhode Island harmed itself more than any other member of the Hexagon.  A loss at home to Richmond and a defeat at Temple over the weekend put a major dent in the Rams' post-season hopes.
• Charlotte will continue to fight its image as a pretender in a rocky sea of contenders. In its only matchup this week, the 49ers were absolutely manhandled by the Gem City cagers. No one has a firm grasp on what this Charlotte team is all about.
• Could a banked three-pointer be the difference between the NCAA tournament and the NIT? Depending on how things play out, Kwamain Mitchell’s desperation heave could come back to haunt Dayton come Selection Sunday. The Flyers lost all the momentum they built up over their past two pinksockings against Xavier and Charlotte.



Last week we looked at the Hexagon from an ease of schedule perspective, this week we’re using schedule strength as a predictor for the final standings.

1st) Temple: The Owls have the easiest slate of games left. With only one hexagonal matchup on tap, at home against Dayton, Temple would appear to be in the driver’s seat as far as first place in the league is concerned. The only possible misstep would be at Saint Louis, but I have a feeling the Dunphy’s squad will take care of business and roll in that one.  Currently 8-2, Temple could feasibly run the table and end the year with 14 league wins. Even with a conservative outlook, it’s realistic to think that the Owls end up with at least 13 wins and at least a share of the conference regular season title.   

2nd) Xavier: The Muskies went out and represented the league well, taking down the mighty Gators in Gainesville for their seventeenth win of the season. Xavier has three very winnable games left on their docket – St. Joe’s, @ Fordham and closing out the year with Saint Bonaventure. That’s eleven wins without even breaking a sweat. If they can take down Charlotte on the road this weekend, X has a very good shot of getting 13 wins and challenging Temple for the conference crown. Like the Owls, the Muskies could conceivably win six in a row and end up with 14 W’s. The jury is still very much out on Charlotte and they get Richmond at home.

The Rick will have much to say over the next three weeks.3rd) Richmond: Richie is a near lock to get at least 12 wins in league play. With two cupcakes this week, Fordham and George Washington (both at home), the Spiders will likely move to 11-2 and hold onto first place for the time being. Out of any team in the Hexagon, Richmond closes out with the toughest trifecta of games: at Xavier, against UD, and closing their campaign on the road against Charlotte. Still, even with a win in just one of those three games (likely candidate = Dayton), the Spiders probably walk into the postseason chins held high with twelve conference wins. Reasonably speaking, third place is probably a worst-case scenario for Richie at this juncture.

4th) Rhode Island: URI had some miscues this week, losses to Richmond and Temple, which certainly takes some of the spark out of their surprising season. Still, the worst is clearly behind Jim Baron’s squad as the Rams will be clear favorites in four of their five remaining contests. Better yet, their one remaining Hexagonal opponent is Charlotte; an opponent many feel has a stench of pretense all over it.  If URI gets by Saint Louis on the road this Wednesday, they likely ride a wave of momentum into their matchup with Charlotte (Rhody has Fordham and Saint Bonnie before hosting the Niners). Again, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Rhode Island could close out the season with five wins, as their five remaining games do not pose a sizeable obstacle.

5th) Charlotte: Presently tied for second, the Niners still enjoy a two game lead on the Flyers, a one and a half game cushion on Rhode Isalnd -- this fact cannot be understated.  The best news for the 49ers is that four of their last six games are at Halton Arena. The one downside for Charlotte would appear to be their strength of schedule. So although they may finish in front of Rhody and Dayton in the standings, they may be the sixth team in terms of the NCAA tournament without some quality wins down the stretch.  An excessively conservative estimate would have the Niners going 3-1 over the next two weeks (wins against Duquesne, GW, St. Joe’s, and a loss to Xavier), putting their conference record at 11-3 heading into its final two games. Splitting their last two games, @ URI and at home versus Richmond, would probably put Bobby Lutz’s club in the 3rd/4th place slot.  However, looking at their resume, they would be best served by winning at least two of their three reaming Hexagonal matchups; otherwise the Niners will have some work to do in Atlantic City.  

6th) Dayton: It’s hard to imagine that the current seventh place team in the Atlantic Ten has a shot at an NCAA berth, but that’s the unfortunate state of college basketball in 2010. It will be next to impossible for the Flyers to reach the top four of the conference, so UD will simply have to focus on not tripping over its own feet from here on out. A loss outside the Hexagon puts the Flyers squarely on the bubble, regardless of whether they sweep Richmond and Temple (which, let’s be frank, is an unlikely occurrence anyway). Most observers believe that eleven wins, and one victory in AC (a loss at UD Arena, in the conference tournament, will be the final nail in the Dayton’s coffin) puts them in the Dance with a double-digit seed. Simple math tells us that UD will need to go 5-1 over the next three weeks to solidify a bid, 4-2 won’t cut it. Unfortunately for the Flyers, this means getting a win at either Richmond or Temple, a tall order for a team that has once again struggled to get wins on the road this season.

Handsome Joe Lunardi disclosed, via his Twitter account, that he will more than likely have six A-10 teams when his bracket projection comes out later today. This is a direct result of the PAC-10’s continual abortion of a season and the A-10 splitting into two distinct factions, a suitable six and whatever else lies at the bottom of the Atlantic Ten barrel. Conceivably, the A-10 is going to finish with several teams in the 12-4/11-5 range, so the latter half of the league schedule will clearly determine who will play their way into, and out of, a bid.

At this stage of the season two things should be crystal clear: first, you cannot afford to lose to a team outside of the top six of the league. Out of the current top six, only Dayton (@ St. Joe’s) and Richmond (@ Saint Louis) have lost to bottom feeders. A loss to the bottom half of the league could serve as a nail in the coffin from here on out, as the top six of the league takes turns beating each other up. Second, the chances of the league receiving six (even five) bids are spurious at best. So many variables would have to fall into place for that scenario to occur that it’s not even worth talking about at this point. Considering this website once spent a week discussing women’s leggings that is saying a mouthful.

If we are operating under the assumption that the league is presently worthy of six bids, and for our purposes here, we are, it may be beneficial (just nod yes) to take a peek at what lies ahead for the league’s hexagon of power. Who has the easiest road ahead? Which team faces an uphill battle? It’s quite possible that a week or two from now one of these teams will have played its way out of the discussion. The schedules may provide a clue, or at the very least allow us to pretend that the picture is somewhat clearer.

Teams are presented in order of scheduling ease. The analysis gives each team an overtly favorable benefit of doubt.

1) Dunphy is sitting prettyTemple: The Owls appear to have the easiest slate of games left on the docket. With only two games against teams in the hexagon (Dayton and Rhode Island), both at home, Temple would realistically only need to split them to have the inside track on first place. After this weekend’s game against Rhode Island, Dunphy’s squad has a pair of very winnable games against St. Bonaventure and St. Joseph’s before UD comes calling later this month. After the Dayton tilt, Temple’s closes the season out with three games against squads that are currently a combined 10-16 in the league. Lastly, Temple does not have to deal with the pressure of playing crucial games back-to-back; they have an advantageously arranged path ahead of them.

2) Xavier: After traveling to Gainesville for an out-of-conference clash with the Florida Gators (which I’m not quite sure will have a major effect on the Muskies’ hopes win or lose), Xavier returns to take on St. Joseph’s. A win against the Hawks puts the Musketeers at nine wins on the season. Even if X only wins one game out of their next three (@Charlotte, @Saint Louis and vs. Richmond), they would have registered ten wins with just two conference games remaining. Those two opponents? The resigned Rams of Fordham and the dormant Bonnies of Saint Bonaventure. Sweep those two teams under the rug and Xavier reaches 12 wins without breaking a sweat. X fans are right to be satisfied with their remaining table.  Only two games in the hexagon and a pair of gimmies to close out the campaign. That’s fairly smooth sailing for our overlords.

3) Rhode Island: If Rhody can take out Richmond this week, their path to an at-large bid seems like it could be all but locked up. On the other hand, if the Rams lose two games this week – very possible considering they face Richmond and Temple – they will get booted from the hexagon (which I guess becomes a pentagon?). If the Rams can go 1-1, a trio of very winnable games awaits them (@Saint Louis, Fordham and @St. Bonaventure). Under this scenario, Rhody would have 11 wins going into games against Charlotte and UMass. Another split at the end of the season brings their win total to a beatific 12. So, Rhody’s formula for success looks something like this: split-three-split. Not exactly catchy, but neither was Bob Dylan and he uses a diamond fork to eat his tabouleh.

4) Dan and Luke need you to believe in themDayton: The Flyers were able to stave off their execution with an impressive win over Xavier this weekend, maybe you heard about it. Out of all six teams, Dayton has the most ground to make up as they are currently 1.5 games out of fifth place.  UD is the outlier in the hexagon, as they cannot afford a single slip-up outside the top six. A loss to Saint Louis, Duquesne or La Salle could signal their dismissal from the conference elite (by the way, elite is in no way an operative word in this case). As previously stated, only Dayton and Richmond have losses outside the top six, and the Spiders are unlikely to lose another game outside the hexagon.

A huge opportunity awaits the Flyers this Wednesday, as Charlotte comes to town (the 10th is going to be a busy day in the six-sided circle, as UD faces off against the Niners, and Richmond grapples with Rhode Island). A loss wouldn’t necessarily be catastrophic, given the opponent, but a 5-4 record on its face does not inspire confidence for the future. Even with a loss this Wednesday, UD has a three-pack of games that are winnable by reasonable standards: @Saint Louis, La Salle and @Duquesne. A clean sweep, however improbable, would place the Flyers at 8-4 with four games to go. Unfortunately, the Flyers have a tough close to the season, including two hexagonal contests on the road (Temple & Richmond). Winning 3-of-4 could be enough to keep the Flyers in the tournament conversation, as UD would have an 11-5 conference record with decent indicators (RPI, SOS, etc.).

Although I wouldn’t feel as comfortable labeling the Charlotte game a “must-win” as I was with Xavier, a loss to the 49ers would certainly inch UD closer to the edge of the ledge. As senseless as it may sound, 6-3 is a world away from 5-4. Even the most hopeful among us would have a hard time believing Dayton could pick itself up after a loss on Wednesday and run close to perfect over the last seven conference games.

5) Charlotte: The Niners have their work cut out for them, as half of their remaining games take place in the homoerotic frenzy of the hexagon. Nevertheless, the 49ers have put themselves in a very enviable position. At 8-1, Charlotte has the most room for error. Discounting games against the top six, Jim Utter’s team faces squads that have a combined record of 8-19. Assuming Shamari Spears and Co. take care of business against its lesser foes, Charlotte would only need to win one-of- four against the top six to end up with 12 wins in the league. Splitting the four games in the hexagon would likely mean a 13-3 mark for Charlotte. So even though Bobby Lutz’s club faces one of the toughest roads from here on out, they are probably sitting the prettiest at this point. A win against Dayton all but sews up an at-large bid for Charlotte.

6) Richmond: As much as it pains me to say it, Richie appears to have the rockiest road ahead.  The Spiders face four games in the ring, three of which are on the road. Outside of Dayton, no team can afford a loss to a bottom-feeder less than the Spiders. Wednesday’s tilt with Rhode Island will either provide Richmond with some breathing room or paint them into a corner. A victory over the Rams could see Richmond roll off four straight victories in route to an 11-2 record (after URI, Richmond faces the Bonnies, Fordham and GW). Richie’s schedule is difficult simply because of the way it is laid out. If they do not care take of business over the next two weeks, they face a murder’s row to close out the season. The prospect of taking two out of three from Xavier, Dayton and Charlotte is a daunting task for any club in the league – even more so when a potential bid is on the line.   

Update on February 8, 2010 by Mr. Blackburn

CNNSI's Andy Glockner has a decent article about the state of the conference here. A quick excerpt:

The other aspect of the brewing perfect bid storm is that the league standings are starting to shake out in inverse order of quality of nonleague performance. Richmond, with three quality wins, has more wiggle room than teams like Xavier, which suffered a series of very tough nonleague losses, and Charlotte, which pounded undermanned Louisville at Freedom Hall but was blown out in several other games against NCAA tournament-level foes. Therefore, for the league's sake, it's a positive that Xavier leads the way at 8-1, with only a five-point loss at nationally ranked Temple sullying its A-10 campaign. It's good that Charlotte already has won at Richmond and beaten Temple. It's OK, for now, that Richmond lost at struggling Saint Louis and also ate one of the three home league losses so far for the top six squads. If Dayton can hold serve in huge upcoming home games against Xavier and Charlotte, the Flyers also should remain strongly in the mix.

"We have to figure out a way to make up for [the home loss to Rhode Island]," Dayton coach Brian Gregory said. "The good thing for all the teams is you'll have the opportunity to do some things, because if you win, you'll be beating some really good teams. At points in the past, if you got yourself into a hole, if you beat some teams, you may be able to get out of the hole with just wins, but maybe not the perception of what kind of wins those are."

Update on February 9, 2010 by Mr. Donoher

For all of you who do not have ESPN Insider.  From Joe Lunardi's recent NCAA Bubble Article.

Evaluating the A-10

A parting in the Atlantic.

Team	Conf. Record	Conf. RPI	RPI	SOS	S-Curve
Temple Owls	7-2	17	40	108	No. 20
Xavier Musketeers	8-2	27	18	72	No. 30
Rhode Island Rams	7-2	12	62	146	No. 35
Charlotte 49ers	8-1	46	37	122	No. 39
Richmond Spiders	7-2	31	35	92	No. 40
Dayton Flyers	5-3	33	83	137	No. 45

An old coach told me once that "road wins are what separate teams in really good leagues." To that end, the six A-10 teams listed above are 34-22 in true road games. Conversely, the Big East bubble group is 8-29. These totals include both league and non-league games. I believe that if BCS teams played more out-of-conference road games, they might be better equipped to win away from home in league play. But that's a different story for a different day, I suppose.

The further we get into the season, the more validity can be ascribed to the intra-conference data; now, the Atlantic 10 can enjoy the rarified air that comes with placing more teams into the field than any non-BCS conference in history. The Big East, meanwhile, waits for separation in the middle of the league and hopes it doesn't need a conference tournament to artificially slice and dice its bubble teams.