nordaytoncolumnArchie Miller to Wisconsin.

In light of Bo Ryan’s quitting immediate departure as head coach of the Badgers, I’ve already seen Miller’s name pop up on a bunch of Wisconsin-related Twitter accounts and message boards.

Although Bo Ryan makes my skin crawl, I’ll give credit where credit is due. He turned a dog shit program into a perennial Top 25 team and certainly made his mark in the NCAA Tournament during his time in Madison.

However, I don’t think this is a job that Archie would (a) be interested in or (b) necessarily even be a candidate for. The consensus seems to be that Barry Alvarez will likely reach out to UVA’s Tony Bennett and try to bring him back home to the Land of Cheese and Heart Disease once the season is complete. If not Bennett, current interim coach Greg Gard would seem to be the odds on favorite to land the gig (you’ll see Archie’s name, along with Chris Mack’s, and I’ve even seen Shaka Smart (?!?) mentioned as a potential replacement for Ryan). Simply put, the Wisconsin job isn’t as good as their on-court results indicate, I don’t see it as a viable threat to Dayton’s immediate coaching future.

Which always leads us to this question: Well, what jobs would Archie leave the City of Gems for? Let’s quickly look at what jobs could realistically open up after this season, focusing solely on programs that could legitimately entice ($$$) Ryan Joseph Miller. (Sidenote: Archie doesn’t appear to be the kind of guy to talk to a school merely to squeeze more money out of his current employer. If Miller is talking to an AD at another program, he absolutely wants that job.) 

Schools listed in order of trepidation they would cause should they open up in April. 

ohio-state-logoLosses to Louisiana Tech and UT-Arlington notwithstanding, I don’t see the Buckeyes dumping Thad Matta on his ass after the season. OSU will likely miss the NCAA tournament in March, putting the brakes on a seven-year run in the Big Dance. I’m fairly confident Matta has bought himself at least another year or two. Still, this would be the easiest transition for Arch, it’s literally the same recruiting base, one that would put the misses in Prada purses for a long time. Unless Miller is waiting for his “dream” job, whatever that may be, I’d imagine he’d be extremely interested. 

cfb-iu-logoncb_u_crean_600Indiana fans really seem to hate Tom Crean, the type of loathing that’s usually reserved for pedophiles, lawyers and pedophile lawyers. Sure, there have been some off-court issues in Bloomington over the past few seasons, which will suddenly become a non-issue if Archie, with his checkered history, became interested in the head coaching gig.

The stumbling block Crean faces seems to be his postseason success, which is to say he has none. As a four seed in 2012, the Hoosiers were bounced out by Kentucky in the Sweet 16 (nothing to be ashamed of). In 2013, as a one seed, IU was once again taken down in the regional semifinals, this time by Syracuse. Last season, Crean snuck into the field as a #10 seed (with a worse resume than Dayton, but I digress) and were dispatched by VCU in the “second” round.

Archie has made his name on his performances in March, Crean’s built an army of detractors based on his. This potential opening would raise my eyebrows. That being said, I think the Hoosiers go dancin’ again this season, win a game or two, and Crean’s seat will slowly cool.

University_of_Illinois_LogoIt seems like John Groce just got to Champaign, doesn’t it? Would you believe this is already his fourth year as the head man at Illinois? With only one tournament appearance, back in his first season at the throne (with Bruce Weber’s recruits), Groce has entered the coaching abyss. It seems like the Illini’s recruiting hasn’t kept pace with their Big Ten brethren and that, my friends, is always going to land you in hot water. Mike Thomas, the Athletic Director that hired Groce, was just shit-canned and there is nothing a new AD likes more than making a new hire to make an imprint and get the moneyed boosters to crawl out of their cracks. I think Groce gets pink-slipped at the end of the season and we will certainly hear Archie’s name attached to this opening. However, I think Miller’s interest will be like pissing your pants, warm and enticing at first but then it will quickly grows cold and alienating. Short story, I’m not inordinately worried about overtures from Illinois.

georgia-techWould Georgia Tech reach out to Dayton again to find its head basketball coach? Absolutely. Archie is his own man and is certainly a candidate the North Avenue Trade School would be fortunate to interview. It’s rare for a school to double-dip the same school for a candidate, particulary in succession, but there’s no way Mike Bobinski, former Xavier AD, wouldn’t consider Archie if there was mutual interest (this would, of course, start a tidal wave of “Bring BG Back!” posts on Pride, a wound-healer if there ever was one).

This prospective opening would be extra tasty as it would cause some consternation down in Northern Kentucky — considering Chris Mack’s name would no doubt be mentioned due to his preexisting relationship with the current Georgia Tech athletic director. Furthermore, you’d have to believe Mack would interview at Tech just out of courtesy to his old boss, which would put our Overlord friends even more on edge. Yet, we all know that GTech isn’t exactly a major player when it comes to lining pockets with cash. Unless Bobinski finds an alternative revenue stream, maybe create an app of some sort, I can’t imagine either Mack or Miller seriously contemplates a move to Atlanta.

I should note that Gregory’s Yellow Jackets have actually gotten off to a good start this season. But, as Flyer fans, we all know how this book ends.

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logoNot gonna happen. The only reason I have Oklahoma State so high is that T. Boone Pickens could conceivably offer Archie an ungodly amount of money and his own oil derrick. Travis Ford has done absolutely nothing in Stillwater, while the majority of the Big 12 seems to be passing his program by. There’s an exceedingly good chance Ford gets pushed out after this season and a likelihood that Archie’s name gets attached as a potential replacement simply because he is a hot name and this is a Power Five position that should pay handsomely. Regardless, this job gets the ol’ hand wank motion from me (although, Mrs. Archie in cowboy boots certainly intrigues me).

175px-MemphisTigers_svgThis one would be such a poor cultural fit I almost want to see it happen from a social science point of view. The newborn sheen has finally washed off of Josh Pastner and now the Memphis fan base is worried they hired the guy who should be picking up John Calipari’s laundered suits. Memphis has under-achieved in the NCAA tournament during Pastner’s reign, and if the Tigers missed the postseason again this year it could be lights out for the former wunderkind. We all know Archie can win in Memphis (high five!), I’m just not sure he could win at Memphis. Pastner is earning around three million dollars this season, so money doesn’t appear to be an issue. All that being said, this opening would cause me to yawn and rip a hellacious gasser. Next.

Head-UNLV-Arch-ColorI had to include one out of left field sleeper and the Rebel job would clearly fit the bill. Give current UNLV head coach Dave Rice credit, he recruited the shit out of his program. Three top ten classes over the past four seasons is a momentous achievement for any coach in America. The problem is Rice hasn’t done anything with the talent he brought to Sin City. Rice has yet to win a NCAA tournament game while at Vegas and his time appears to be running out.

Unless the Rebs make some noise this March, it’s a good bet UNLV will be looking elsewhere. Although Archie probably has some faded recruiting flags still buried in the southwest, there’s almost no way the Rebels could afford him. As much I would like to see Archie wearing a pinkie ring and a sharkskin suit on the sidelines, this opening wouldn’t even get a “meh” from me. It’s a job I’d personally covet if UNLV is interested in a guy who hasn’t spoken to an 18 year-old black kid in his life.

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Of course, there will be machinations and dominoes falling that we can’t possibly anticipate this spring (for instance, Steve Alford gets fired after a pay-for-play scandal emerges at UCLA, Shaka Smart goes to Westwood, Tony Bennett leaves for Austin and Chris Mooney takes over at UVA, etc., etc.), other coaching opportunities that can’t be projected at this point in time. Nevertheless, this is where I think the field lies as of December, 2015. Take it or leave it.

Let’s get back to the present and your Daytona Fliers. UD brings in a true shit show to town this weekend, Furman. This is the perfect opponent at the perfect time.

Overview

I’m not even going to plump Furman up, the Paladins are not a good basketball team. They are currently 5-4 and have a RPI hovering just north of 320. They are not full of sound and fury, and they do signify nothing.

The only information about Furman you need to know — what’s the origin of the Paladin nickname?

[su_quote cite=”furmanpaladins.com” url=”http://furmanpaladins.com/sports/m-baskbl/2015-16/BluefieldGameNotes121615.pdf”]Furman University athletic teams were known by different names until the 1961 school year. The baseball team was “Hornets,” the football team “Hurricane,” and the basketball team “Paladins.” The basketball team was dubbed “Paladins” by a Greenville sportswriter in the 1930s. By vote of the student body, all Furman athletic teams became the “Paladins” on September 15, 1961. A Paladin is a knight on a horse and the recognized mascot of Furman University’s athletic teams.[/su_quote]

I wholeheartedly support the use of different mascots for a school’s various athletic programs. It’s batshit insane, counterproductive and I love everything about it.

 BKC1-8-15-071

Furman has all five starters from last year’s squad, a team that was one basket away from winning the Southern Conference tournament a season ago (which isn’t to say the Paladins were decent in 2014-15, they went 11-22 and had a miraculous run to the league’s final). Head coach Niko Medved, the inspiration for the lead characer in Grand Theft Auto 4, is in his third year at the helm and finally has the type of depth that can make a difference in a league like the SoCon.

Niko-BellicThe Paladins struggle mightily shooting from fifteen feet out. Gardner-Webb used this information to their advantage this past weekend, throwing up a zone against Furman for forty minutes, which resulted in the Paladins shooting an abysmal 5-of-28 from behind the arc. Not surprisingly, Furman took a twenty-point L in that matchup. Medved’s club gets a lot of threes up and hits a small fraction of them, not exactly a recipe for success (by the way, would it shock you to learn that Dayton is shooting 32.5% from the arc — ranking them 222nd in the country? It shocked me, it did).

So what does Furman, picked fifth in the Southern Conference’s preseason poll, do well? They’re a private school with an enrollment of 2,600 and somehow support D1 athletics, so that’s kinda impressive. The Paladins play at a slow, methodical pace which is sure to put the Sweater Centre at ease during this period of recovery for the Flyer Nation. That’s very charitable of Furman.

Tne one aspect of the game the Paladins actually do excel in revolves around the charity stripe. Furman gets to the line with above average frequency and relies on freebies for a healthy amount of their points — whether or not this is a “positive” statistic is certainly open for debate, the fact is Furman gets to the stripe early and often. It will be interesting to see how this indicator plays out against Dayton, as UD’s foul-prone players reside in the front court and Furman’s offensive attack funnels through its back court. Unless the Paladin guards are blowing past their counterparts with regularity, there probably won’t be extended contact between the aforementioned parties.

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[show-team category=’furman’ layout=’grid’ style=’img-square,img-shadow,text-center,img-above,4-columns,white-box-theme’ display=’photo,position,location,name’]

Stevie Croone, Devin Sibley and Daniel Fowler start on the perimeter for Furman. Croone is the team’s best player, its leading scorer and accounts for an insane 30.5% usage rate (which estimates the % of team possessions a player consumes while on the floor). Croone will have to have a career game for Furman to have a shot in the Decibel Dungeon. Sibley and Fowler are basically carbon copies of each other. Both guards can stroke it from three and rebound decently for their size. 

RaffertyM-16PC5Freshman forward Matt Rafferty has been a godsend for Medved. The 6’8″ forward has range, can rebound and is a great passer for a man his size. Rafferty gets to line with regularity, connecting on 81% of his attempts. Kris Acox starts in the front court alongside Rafferty, he’s a banger and Furman’s best interior defender. 

John Davis, Kendrec Ferrara and Andrew Brown are the Paladins’ main options off the bench. Davis is an undersized guard with a two to one assist-to-turnover ratio. Brown is a freshman guard, currently leading the team in three-point percentage. Ferrara is a big who is extremely effective with his playing time, averaging six points and four rebounds while playing around fifteen minutes per game.

Nate’s Numbers

This should shape up as a nice bounce back game for Dayton as Furman is fairly terrible in general and they match up poorly with a team like the Fliers.  

On the offensive end, Furman pretty much can only score from the free-throw line as they rank 42nd nationally in free-throw rate.  For some reason, the Paladins shoot a ton of threes (46% of their shots), but are pretty subpar at it (30% – 275th in the nation).  This has been Dayton’s one defensive weakness, guarding the perimeter, and doesn’t look like Furman will be able to take advantage.

On the defensive side Furman does…nothing.  They’re giving up 53% shooting on two point shots, while only blocking 3.7% of their opponent’s shots (342nd). I would expect this to be a day for Big Steve to have his way.

[su_icon_text color=”#000000″ icon=”http://www.blackburnreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/twitter_icon.png” icon_color=”#db1612″ icon_size=”19″ url=”https://twitter.com/tribebrowns”]Follow Nate on the Twitter.[/su_icon_text]

Prediction

Flyers get to pick on some low hanging fruit and put the nastiness from last weekend to bed. UD stomps Furman, 83-62, and extends their home-court winning streak to one. The Chief racks up another double-double, 15 and 13, and Charles Cooke leads all scorers with 25 points. Christmas break begins, a certain Canadian might be on campus and the conference opener is just around the corner. Please tweet all the red sweaters you get from Santa to @blackburnreview.

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John Deere
Guest
The only two jobs I see Morgan leaving UD for are IU and tOSU. The good citizens of Indiana cream themselves whenever Bobby Knight’s name is mentioned. Plus, every major head coach outside of IU’s has been pillaging the elite talent in Indiana for years. Even Chris Mack punches Crean in the nuts. That job ain’t that good. The Ohio State University is an a different level than all the others on your list. If Archie turns down tOSU to stay at UD he getting a lot of pet food on the side. My prediction for the Furman game is… Read more »
makor shayok
Guest

georgia tech schedule & power ranking:
http://masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2911&s=284067

fairly mediocre non-con schedule propped up by game with villanova. GT has already has its inexplicable home buy game loss, vs ETSU (RPI 224). there’s clearly only one solution — quit booking buy games with schools from tennessee!

K.Lew
Guest

If UD is serious about medium term success we need to cough up more money for Archie. He has earned it and if we want our program to continue to have sustained success, we have our guy. The question is, are we willing to pay what the market demands for his talent?

John Deere
Guest
I’ve heard numbers regarding his pay, and if true, he is astronomically well paid. I don’t know whether astronomically is a word, but is being paid stupid money. Stupid in the sense that it would be stupid for him to leave Dayton for a half assed P5 program that gets BCS Football ( I know, I know the BCS doesn’t exist so fuck you guys) money simply because of affiliation. The Fliers have a few extremely wealthy benefactors. He won’t leave because of money, unless it is elite level program money, and in that case, it’s the program not the… Read more »
K.Lew
Guest

Here is the report I found: http://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/salaries/mens-basketball/coach/

John – Good points.

I don’t love USA Today…but if this is true Archie is 43rd but performing like a top 25. More than a million difference between those two positions. Clearly I am biased in keeping Archie so maybe I am overestimating where he should rank.

John Deere
Guest

This list is off by 20 to 25 spots. He was making that amount two contract extensions ago. UD doesn’t report the private part of his pay on their 990 filings. I have heard that this will be changing as the private funding will roll through the University and his full pay will be public info.

Anonymous
Guest

K. Lew….Shaka Smart made 1.9 million last year at VCU, so that salary chart is at least a couple of years old. Brian Gregory made about $950,000 his last season at Dayton…and is at maybe $1.1 million currently at Georgia Tech. If I had to guess, I’d estimate that Miller is making somewhere between 1.5 and 2.2 million dollars per season and if Dayton is smart, the buyout is in the neighborhood of half the total value of his entire remaining contract value.

John Deere
Guest

I believe that your top of the range number is very accurate.

usatoday data blows
Guest

in the methodology section for the survey: “Private schools: Pay information came from federal tax returns. Documents provide compensation data for the 2012 calendar year, based on all income paid by the school or related organization, including benefits, perks and performance bonuses.”

LFG FLYERS
Guest

I’ve had money on the fact that Joey Gruden does not score one point all season. Outside of SEMO, this was the only other game on the schedule that scares me.

John Deere
Guest

Joey won’t score unless Archie puts Bancini in the game.

Kevin Secaur
Member

NC State and Pitt are in the “Archie would leave UD no questions asked” category, right? Gottfried got an extension before this season started for whatever that is worth. Gotta wonder if lack of postseason success is gonna catch up with Jamie Dixon here eventually, or am I just being paranoid? (Off to a solid 8-1 start.)

tman
Guest

When Archie leaves (and he will leave) his new job must include the following elements. Great weather. Great place to live. Near a beach if possible…Take my word for it..Write it down….

LFG FLYERS
Guest

Roy Williams leaves – Sean goes to UNC – Archie to Zona

Les Steinlage
Guest

Says who? Morgan Miller’s bikini pics on Instagram?

Gil
Guest

I didnt read most of your shitty opinion about schools that archie would be interested in once I saw all the skewls included. The only schools listed he would leave UD if offered are OSU and IU.. I am absolutely dumbfounded as to why GT and U of I were included.. -5 to you sir.. I want to hear your prediction for UD’s conference season know we know Pierre is back.. only scary game is GW

Mr. Wiggles
Guest

Gil – I’m interested to see how much crow he eats when Pierre returns, seeing how he said there was zero chance he would ever return, adamentally. At the end of the day, the schools on that list are decent bets and I agree with TMan, warm climate. Long story short, I’m hitting up Chipotle prior to the game tomorrow, pray I do/don’t get EColi because either way a stall is getting lit up!

Alex Robertson
Guest

Stop throwing up in the comments section. Actual people may read this. Jesus Christ.

T-Rex
Guest

I like the Fliers to rebound with a pink-socking of Furburger U. Let’s not be too hard on the boys, as last week’s game was on the weekend before finals. The Discover Arts course load had to weigh heavily on most of the guys and I think it showed with their play on Saturday. With the upcoming three months requiring no school work, I like our chances!

Roy Driesen
Guest

I tweeted at Archie and Morgan today. They didn’t respond, probably too busy. I assume that means that the Miller’s are at UD for life and working to create a “Duke of the Miami Valley” that the best fans in America deserve.

you've got to be kidding me
Guest
you've got to be kidding me

Seriously, you guys need to get of the the midwest…. OSU and IU as the top jobs Archie leaves for??? what are you smoking? There are far better places to live that are equally high (or better) on the job list. I’m a UD alum but you guys need to get over the Big 10 as a destination. Come on man!

John Deere
Guest

So a basketball coach is worried about the weather? Get a fucking clue. Archie will go to program that has a chance to be a final four contender year after year. If that program is in the shit hole of the world that’s where Morgan is going to live.

Coach K
Guest

Bo Ryan should have taken the year off for back surgery so that his career record wouldn’t be tarnished by a shitty year. He could have recruited hard and come back better than ever next year and had his assistant takes the hit for a losing record. So I’ve heard…….

The Kman
Guest

I figure Archie would take any job at a Big East school if the AD sweetened his deal with one of those BIg East windbreakers Mack was wearing in Orlando.

The Kman
Guest

The Furman recon post has received the most for any game preview this season. The where will Archie go fear mongering post wins every time. Well played, Blackburn.

The Kman
Guest

Most comments….

Your Mom
Guest

AM is only leaving for tOSU when that job comes up. You know damn well that Ratface has a timeline for a departure, if he isn’t shit canned first and Archie knows that. He can with confidence make the statements he does about UD given the fact that Ratface may be 5 years out.

Archie will go where Archie wants to go. Not where his high maintenance snobby ass wife wants to go. When she pays the bills she picks where to live.

Les Steinlage
Guest

In the words of Lendale White, “Aye lissen, Ohio State SUCKS.”

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