I am fascinated by the prognostication racket, the fact that the people who are its biggest detractors are almost without exception its most ardent followers. The prediction business has transcended sports, most notably spilling over into the stock market and even political races. Projections are frivolous, often meaningless, and people can’t get enough.
Pomeroy is the leading college basketball fortune teller. I pay for his website every season — so I too am a rube, lined up at the statistical ring toss booth eager to give my money away.
A look at Ken Pom’s forecast indicates that he is not quite as bullish on the Flyers as other outlets seem to be.
Kenny predicts the Flyers will finish around 18-10 on the season, 11-7 in Atlantic Ten play. This estimate does not include the two games UD will play after facing Iowa in the Advocare Invitational in late November. (If you actually add up the wins and losses, it seems Pomeroy has Gem City winning 22 games and losing 6, yet it clearly indicates 18-10 as the final projection. Although this seems like a glaring error, I’m sure there is some analytical explanation for this inconsistency. Leave your interpretation in the comments if you have an idea why the numbers don’t match up.)
As far as the conference race is concerned, KenPom projects Davidson and Rhode Island to finish tied for first with a 12-6 record, while VCU, George Washington, Richmond, St. Joe’s (??) and Dayton are all in a logjam for third with 11-7 records. I am by no means an “advanced analytics” Luddite, but if St. Joseph’s finishes 11-7 in the A10 this season I will watch every episode of Katie Nolan’s Garbage Time in one sitting.
Remember, these projections have no meaning unless you get riled up about them. You are better off viewing them in the same manner you read this post, with a slight shrug before moving on to barely more important things.